The Road to Hell is paved with good intentions
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  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  The Road to Hell is paved with good intentions
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Author Topic: The Road to Hell is paved with good intentions  (Read 477 times)
NewYorkExpress
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« on: May 13, 2023, 11:50:05 PM »
« edited: May 13, 2023, 11:53:58 PM by Lincoln General Court Member NewYorkExpress »

Election Night 2024 had come and gone. For Joe Biden, who had been expecting at the beginning of 2024 to be facing Donald Trump once again, Trump's forced exit from the Presidential race after being convicted in both Georgia of attempting to overturn the election there, and in federal court of insurrection charges in late February 2024, essentially threw the Republican nomination to Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the only other candidate in the field at that point. Trump would be sentenced in June to life in prison on the federal charges, and would essentially receive probation on the Georgia charges, with Fulton County prosecutors deciding that they couldn't top the federal sentence.


Joe Biden (D-DE)/Kamala Harris (D-CA) 50%
Ron DeSantis (R-FL)/Elise Stefanik (R-NY) 47.6%

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In the Senate, Democrats lost control of the chamber. In addition to the expected losses in West Virginia (Jim Justice defeating Joe Manchin) Montana (Matt Rosendale defeating Jon Tester) and Ohio (Frank LaRose defeating Sherrod Brown), Democrats also saw scandal-scarred incumbent Bob Menendez go down in New Jersey against Jeff Van Drew.

However, there were two bright spots for Senate Democrats. Sherrod Brown's place as a leader on progressive issues was filled on California as the open seat of Dianne Feinstein would be filled by Katie Porter, who defeated prominent Trump critic Adam Schiff.

And in Texas, the dream of a blue Longhorn State became one step closer to being a reality, as Colin Allred knocked off perennially unpopular incumbent Ted Cruz for the Democrats's lone gain of the night.


The battle for the Governor's mansions had been a third string story, like it usually was in Presidential years, but it was an interesting sideshow, as Democrats lost in North Carolina, with far-right Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson defeating Attorney General Josh Stein, but gained both New England Governor's mansions, picking up Vermont behind State Auditor Doug Hoffer after Phil Scott chose to retire, and former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig stunning the incumbent, Chris Sununnu in New Hampshire.

The only other seat that even bordered on competitive was in Washington, where retiring Governor Jay Inslee left a sizable vacuum. Attorney General Bob Ferguson defeated former Representative Jaime Herrera Beutler by five points, in a race where many Democrats were worried about being locked out of the general election, with three strong Republicans (Herrera Beutler, former Representative Dave Reichert and former State Senator Dino Rossi) running against two strong Democrats (Ferguson and Commissioner of Public Lands Hilary Franz).


In the House, Democrats entered 2024 needing three seats to take control, though that number was technically higher thanks to mid-decade, Republican favorable redistricting in North Carolina. (A Florida map that attempted to crack Orlando failed to advance past the State Senate, despite cajoling from DeSantis).

Democratic Gains: AZ-1, AZ-6, CA-40, CA-41, CA-45, CO-3, NY-3, NY-4, NY-17, NY-21, NY-22, PA-1, TX-15, VA-2, OR-5.

Republican gains:

CA-47, IL-17, KS-3, ME-2, MI-7, NC-2, NC-4, NC-13, NC-14, OH-1, OH-9, OH-13, PA-8, TX-28, VA-7.

When the counting was done, the Democrats had failed to take the house by two seats on election night with recounts in NY-2 and NY-11 still pending. If both of those recounts went their way, they would flip the House.
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BigVic
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« Reply #1 on: May 14, 2023, 05:04:30 AM »

No Ted Cruz
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #2 on: May 21, 2023, 07:29:52 PM »

Over the first two weeks of November, the two outstanding House elections were called. In NY-2, former Suffolk County Legislator DuWayne Gregory defeated the incumbent, Andrew Garbarino, by 98 votes, while in NY-11, the incumbent, Nicole Malliotakis, defeated her challenger, former New York City Councilman Sal Albanese by 1,179 votes, leaving the Democrats one seat short of a House majority.

Meanwhile, a changing of the guard would take place in the Senate, as long time Republican leader Mitch McConnell announced he would resign effective January 1, when the new Congress was sworn in.

Kentucky Governor Daniel Cameron, who had won election in a closely fought race in 2023, had a variety of options to replace McConnell in the Senate. The requirements, though were, that the person appointed must be a Republican, and must be on a list of three names chosen by the Kentucky Republican Party. The Kentucky Republican Party's three names chosen, sent to Cameron on December 12, 2024 were Representative Andy Barr, former UN Ambassador Kelly Craft, and former Representative Anne Northrup.

Of the three, Northrup had appeal, as she was likely to not run for a full term in 2026, which interested Cameron, who was interested in running for the seat himself, while Barr put a potentially competitive in a wave, House seat at risk, and Craft had not acquitted herself well in the 2023 Republican Primary for Governor, finishing fourth behind Cameron, Mike Harmon and Ryan Quarles.

Ultimately, Cameron chose to go with Northrup, and announced his own campaign for the seat, on February 18, 2025.

The war between Russia and Ukraine came to an end in late November 2024, when Russian President Vladimir Putin, frustrated by his continued failure to advance further and subsume Ukraine, ordered a nuclear strike on the capital, Kyiv. The nuclear missile ended up off course, instead landing in Kursk, and killing 150,000 people. The resulting massive loss of life led the surrender of Ukrainian President Voldymyr Zelensky the next day.

Putin issued a decree, immediately following the surrender, that all Ukrainian males, regardless of age, were to be shot, with females to be executed in a less violent manner to be determined later.

In the United States, following an eleventh hour deals to raise the debt ceiling in May 2023, September 2023 and July 2024, the United States officially defaulted on their debt on December 1, 2024 after House Speaker Kevin McCarthy refused to bring a bill to raise the debt ceiling to the House floor by the deadline. Biden's attempts to use the Fourteenth Amendment to ignore the debt ceiling were overturned by the Supreme Court in a 6-3 opinion, with John Roberts writing for the majority.
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Captain Chaos
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« Reply #3 on: May 22, 2023, 01:54:36 PM »

There is no way that Zelensky would surrender even after Kursk was nuked.
Russia would be hit with international trade sanctions.
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Duke of York
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« Reply #4 on: May 22, 2023, 02:08:19 PM »

Zelensky would never surrender. Nuking Kursk would only escalate things further.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #5 on: May 22, 2023, 03:02:49 PM »

There is no way that Zelensky would surrender even after Kursk was nuked.
Russia would be hit with international trade sanctions.


Russia is a pariah after breaking the nuclear taboo. Putin got what he wanted, but a cost that really wasn't worth it in the end.
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