NY-4: Laura Gillen in

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.liherald.com/fivetowns/stories/laura-gillen-announces-run-for-congress,176810

In a surprise announcement only months after losing her re-election bid to represent the Fourth District in Congress, Democrat Laura Gillen said Wednesday morning that she plans to run for the seat she lost to Republican Anthony D’Esposito.

She came out with a blistering attack against D’Esposito, saying he is aligned with the extreme elements of the GOP.

Gillen, a Democrat who had been Hempstead town supervisor, lost to D'Esposito in November's election in what was widely regarded as a Republican sweep on Long Island.

In an early morning statement Wednesday, Gillen said she is running "because public service can be a noble calling that makes people's lives better; but too many in Washington care about political gamesmanship, sound bites and photo opportunities than actually making real progress for our families."

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Endorsed

[Smash255]

Have generally liked Gillen, though certainly not impressed the district.  Even with Zeldin doing well on the top of the ticket, she never should have lost.  I would personally like to see Kevan Abrahams who is the Minority leader in the Nassau County Legislature run for the seat.   Abrahams announced he will not seek re-election to the Legislature in the fall.

[Pollster]

She ran a couple points ahead of Hochul so she should be able to manage this race aptly so long as Biden doesn't catastrophically collapse on Long Island - even if he does significantly worse than 2020, this district has a sizable Dem cushion under normal turnout patterns. D'Esposito is obviously not going to be a pushover but could very easily struggle to run far enough ahead of the Republican baseline in such an expensive media market.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1658107661743796225

[TML]

I don’t know if Hughes’ ties to NY-04 are strong enough - public records show that she currently resides in NY-12, while her childhood home is in NY-03.

[NewYorkExpress]

I don’t know if Hughes’ ties to NY-04 are strong enough - public records show that she currently resides in NY-12, while her childhood home is in NY-03.

Yeah, if I were her, I would be running in NY-3. Maybe she thinks she can't beat Lafazan or Kaplan?

[Fuzzy Bear]

She'll have a uphill battle to win.  NY 4 is the more Republican district in Nassau County; it is more Catholic (NY-3 is more Jewish) and it has a significant number of NYPD and FDNY employees living there.  Any Republican would have a tough time holding NY-3, but Santos has virtually ensured a Democratic victory in 2024 there. 

Nassau's Republican Party is far more on the ball than Suffolk's.  They have done more in tougher electoral territory.  This CD is an exception; the GOP won here in 1992 with David Levy, a moderate Republican, but he was upset in the 1994 primary by Assemblyman Dan Frisa.  Normally, Frisa would have been a safe incumbent, but a shooting on the LIRR led anti-gun activist Carolyn McCarthy to run and win, defeating Frisa.  (McCarthy, IMO, would not have defeated the more moderate Levy.)   It was also a time when the remnants of the Margiotta machine were having their troubles. 

Nassau County's Congressional politics have greater national implications than in 1996.  D'Esposito will be a good fit for that seat and the national GOP will ensure that he'll have all the money he needs.  Santos's seat is likely gone; it would have been gone anyway, but Santos has been a special breed of jackass that voters will remember, and not fondly.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

She'll have a uphill battle to win.  NY 4 is the more Republican district in Nassau County; it is more Catholic (NY-3 is more Jewish) and it has a significant number of NYPD and FDNY employees living there.  Any Republican would have a tough time holding NY-3, but Santos has virtually ensured a Democratic victory in 2024 there. 

Nassau's Republican Party is far more on the ball than Suffolk's.  They have done more in tougher electoral territory.  This CD is an exception; the GOP won here in 1992 with David Levy, a moderate Republican, but he was upset in the 1994 primary by Assemblyman Dan Frisa.  Normally, Frisa would have been a safe incumbent, but a shooting on the LIRR led anti-gun activist Carolyn McCarthy to run and win, defeating Frisa.  (McCarthy, IMO, would not have defeated the more moderate Levy.)   It was also a time when the remnants of the Margiotta machine were having their troubles. 

Nassau County's Congressional politics have greater national implications than in 1996.  D'Esposito will be a good fit for that seat and the national GOP will ensure that he'll have all the money he needs.  Santos's seat is likely gone; it would have been gone anyway, but Santos has been a special breed of jackass that voters will remember, and not fondly.

Yeah But this one is Biden +15, Santos' is Biden +8. I do think 4 swings more right than 3 in 2024 and Santos would obviously lose but I don't see how this is such an uphill battle for dems(even though I agree D'Espesito is not DOA)

[Fuzzy Bear]

She'll have a uphill battle to win.  NY 4 is the more Republican district in Nassau County; it is more Catholic (NY-3 is more Jewish) and it has a significant number of NYPD and FDNY employees living there.  Any Republican would have a tough time holding NY-3, but Santos has virtually ensured a Democratic victory in 2024 there. 

Nassau's Republican Party is far more on the ball than Suffolk's.  They have done more in tougher electoral territory.  This CD is an exception; the GOP won here in 1992 with David Levy, a moderate Republican, but he was upset in the 1994 primary by Assemblyman Dan Frisa.  Normally, Frisa would have been a safe incumbent, but a shooting on the LIRR led anti-gun activist Carolyn McCarthy to run and win, defeating Frisa.  (McCarthy, IMO, would not have defeated the more moderate Levy.)   It was also a time when the remnants of the Margiotta machine were having their troubles. 

Nassau County's Congressional politics have greater national implications than in 1996.  D'Esposito will be a good fit for that seat and the national GOP will ensure that he'll have all the money he needs.  Santos's seat is likely gone; it would have been gone anyway, but Santos has been a special breed of jackass that voters will remember, and not fondly.

Yeah But this one is Biden +15, Santos' is Biden +8. I do think 4 swings more right than 3 in 2024 and Santos would obviously lose but I don't see how this is such an uphill battle for dems(even though I agree D'Espesito is not DOA)

Nassau County, NY has always been more Democratic at the state and national level than Suffolk County, yet Nassau County has, over the years, had the more dominating Republican local governace because of it's Republican machine, arguably the last old-time political machine of its type.  I'm certain that things have changed since I lived in Long Island and politics is far more nationalized, but D'Esposito is hardly a bad fit.  And he's an incumbent, with all the incumbent's advantages. 

Not many Nassau Republican Congressmen have lost reelection.  The ones that do lose in exceptional circumstances.  Steve Derounian lost in the 1964 Goldwater landslide.  Angelo Roncallo (whose district extended into a more Democratic part of Suffolk County) lost to Jerome Ambro in the 1974 Watergate year.  Dan Frisa lost in 1996 due to an issue that increased in local significance.  Biden does not appear to be popular at this time, and any Democratic Presidential nominee will end up having to run on Biden's record, like it or not.  (Ted Kennedy really didn't think that through in 1980.)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

She'll have a uphill battle to win.  NY 4 is the more Republican district in Nassau County; it is more Catholic (NY-3 is more Jewish) and it has a significant number of NYPD and FDNY employees living there.  Any Republican would have a tough time holding NY-3, but Santos has virtually ensured a Democratic victory in 2024 there. 

Nassau's Republican Party is far more on the ball than Suffolk's.  They have done more in tougher electoral territory.  This CD is an exception; the GOP won here in 1992 with David Levy, a moderate Republican, but he was upset in the 1994 primary by Assemblyman Dan Frisa.  Normally, Frisa would have been a safe incumbent, but a shooting on the LIRR led anti-gun activist Carolyn McCarthy to run and win, defeating Frisa.  (McCarthy, IMO, would not have defeated the more moderate Levy.)   It was also a time when the remnants of the Margiotta machine were having their troubles. 

Nassau County's Congressional politics have greater national implications than in 1996.  D'Esposito will be a good fit for that seat and the national GOP will ensure that he'll have all the money he needs.  Santos's seat is likely gone; it would have been gone anyway, but Santos has been a special breed of jackass that voters will remember, and not fondly.

Strongly disagree.  As long as Democrats don’t take it for granted and fall asleep at the wheel, this will be a very easy flip, if not our easiest flip.  And that’s not even getting into the fact that there will likely be a new, Democratic Party-drawn congressional map in 2024.  D’Esposito is toast.

[KaiserDave]

Barring a new map, I agree with Fuzzy. D’Esposito is favored. Regarding Santos, he has no chance of renomination. His election was a fluke and now that he’s been thoroughly disgraced the Nassau GOP will want their own man in. Santos has no base in a primary, finished.

[Smash255]

She'll have a uphill battle to win.  NY 4 is the more Republican district in Nassau County; it is more Catholic (NY-3 is more Jewish) and it has a significant number of NYPD and FDNY employees living there.  Any Republican would have a tough time holding NY-3, but Santos has virtually ensured a Democratic victory in 2024 there. 

Nassau's Republican Party is far more on the ball than Suffolk's.  They have done more in tougher electoral territory.  This CD is an exception; the GOP won here in 1992 with David Levy, a moderate Republican, but he was upset in the 1994 primary by Assemblyman Dan Frisa.  Normally, Frisa would have been a safe incumbent, but a shooting on the LIRR led anti-gun activist Carolyn McCarthy to run and win, defeating Frisa.  (McCarthy, IMO, would not have defeated the more moderate Levy.)   It was also a time when the remnants of the Margiotta machine were having their troubles. 

Nassau County's Congressional politics have greater national implications than in 1996.  D'Esposito will be a good fit for that seat and the national GOP will ensure that he'll have all the money he needs.  Santos's seat is likely gone; it would have been gone anyway, but Santos has been a special breed of jackass that voters will remember, and not fondly.

Yeah But this one is Biden +15, Santos' is Biden +8. I do think 4 swings more right than 3 in 2024 and Santos would obviously lose but I don't see how this is such an uphill battle for dems(even though I agree D'Espesito is not DOA)

Nassau County, NY has always been more Democratic at the state and national level than Suffolk County, yet Nassau County has, over the years, had the more dominating Republican local governace because of it's Republican machine, arguably the last old-time political machine of its type.  I'm certain that things have changed since I lived in Long Island and politics is far more nationalized, but D'Esposito is hardly a bad fit.  And he's an incumbent, with all the incumbent's advantages. 

Not many Nassau Republican Congressmen have lost reelection.  The ones that do lose in exceptional circumstances.  Steve Derounian lost in the 1964 Goldwater landslide.  Angelo Roncallo (whose district extended into a more Democratic part of Suffolk County) lost to Jerome Ambro in the 1974 Watergate year.  Dan Frisa lost in 1996 due to an issue that increased in local significance.  Biden does not appear to be popular at this time, and any Democratic Presidential nominee will end up having to run on Biden's record, like it or not.  (Ted Kennedy really didn't think that through in 1980.)

Many of those Nassau Republicans who didn't win re-election were not running in Dem +15 districts either.  D'Esposito isn't toast and will certainly outrun whoever is the GOP nominee for President, but he is certainly an underdog.

[Tekken_Guy]

She'll have a uphill battle to win.  NY 4 is the more Republican district in Nassau County; it is more Catholic (NY-3 is more Jewish) and it has a significant number of NYPD and FDNY employees living there.  Any Republican would have a tough time holding NY-3, but Santos has virtually ensured a Democratic victory in 2024 there. 

Nassau's Republican Party is far more on the ball than Suffolk's.  They have done more in tougher electoral territory.  This CD is an exception; the GOP won here in 1992 with David Levy, a moderate Republican, but he was upset in the 1994 primary by Assemblyman Dan Frisa.  Normally, Frisa would have been a safe incumbent, but a shooting on the LIRR led anti-gun activist Carolyn McCarthy to run and win, defeating Frisa.  (McCarthy, IMO, would not have defeated the more moderate Levy.)   It was also a time when the remnants of the Margiotta machine were having their troubles. 

Nassau County's Congressional politics have greater national implications than in 1996.  D'Esposito will be a good fit for that seat and the national GOP will ensure that he'll have all the money he needs.  Santos's seat is likely gone; it would have been gone anyway, but Santos has been a special breed of jackass that voters will remember, and not fondly.

Barring a new map, I agree with Fuzzy. D’Esposito is favored. Regarding Santos, he has no chance of renomination. His election was a fluke and now that he’s been thoroughly disgraced the Nassau GOP will want their own man in. Santos has no base in a primary, finished.

Honestly D’Esposito is basically the reverse Max Rose. Got in on a fluke win because of gubernatorial coattails and under presidential turnout where the seat reverts to its normal voting patterns — yeah you get the picture. Saying that D’Esposito is favored will age as poorly as saying Rose was favored in 2020.

[Fuzzy Bear]

She'll have a uphill battle to win.  NY 4 is the more Republican district in Nassau County; it is more Catholic (NY-3 is more Jewish) and it has a significant number of NYPD and FDNY employees living there.  Any Republican would have a tough time holding NY-3, but Santos has virtually ensured a Democratic victory in 2024 there. 

Nassau's Republican Party is far more on the ball than Suffolk's.  They have done more in tougher electoral territory.  This CD is an exception; the GOP won here in 1992 with David Levy, a moderate Republican, but he was upset in the 1994 primary by Assemblyman Dan Frisa.  Normally, Frisa would have been a safe incumbent, but a shooting on the LIRR led anti-gun activist Carolyn McCarthy to run and win, defeating Frisa.  (McCarthy, IMO, would not have defeated the more moderate Levy.)   It was also a time when the remnants of the Margiotta machine were having their troubles. 

Nassau County's Congressional politics have greater national implications than in 1996.  D'Esposito will be a good fit for that seat and the national GOP will ensure that he'll have all the money he needs.  Santos's seat is likely gone; it would have been gone anyway, but Santos has been a special breed of jackass that voters will remember, and not fondly.

Strongly disagree.  As long as Democrats don’t take it for granted and fall asleep at the wheel, this will be a very easy flip, if not our easiest flip.  And that’s not even getting into the fact that there will likely be a new, Democratic Party-drawn congressional map in 2024.  D’Esposito is toast.

Never underestimate the somnolence of the Nassau County Democratic Committee. 

[NewYorkExpress]

She'll have a uphill battle to win.  NY 4 is the more Republican district in Nassau County; it is more Catholic (NY-3 is more Jewish) and it has a significant number of NYPD and FDNY employees living there.  Any Republican would have a tough time holding NY-3, but Santos has virtually ensured a Democratic victory in 2024 there. 

Nassau's Republican Party is far more on the ball than Suffolk's.  They have done more in tougher electoral territory.  This CD is an exception; the GOP won here in 1992 with David Levy, a moderate Republican, but he was upset in the 1994 primary by Assemblyman Dan Frisa.  Normally, Frisa would have been a safe incumbent, but a shooting on the LIRR led anti-gun activist Carolyn McCarthy to run and win, defeating Frisa.  (McCarthy, IMO, would not have defeated the more moderate Levy.)   It was also a time when the remnants of the Margiotta machine were having their troubles. 

Nassau County's Congressional politics have greater national implications than in 1996.  D'Esposito will be a good fit for that seat and the national GOP will ensure that he'll have all the money he needs.  Santos's seat is likely gone; it would have been gone anyway, but Santos has been a special breed of jackass that voters will remember, and not fondly.

Yeah But this one is Biden +15, Santos' is Biden +8. I do think 4 swings more right than 3 in 2024 and Santos would obviously lose but I don't see how this is such an uphill battle for dems(even though I agree D'Espesito is not DOA)

Nassau County, NY has always been more Democratic at the state and national level than Suffolk County, yet Nassau County has, over the years, had the more dominating Republican local governace because of it's Republican machine, arguably the last old-time political machine of its type.  I'm certain that things have changed since I lived in Long Island and politics is far more nationalized, but D'Esposito is hardly a bad fit.  And he's an incumbent, with all the incumbent's advantages. 

Not many Nassau Republican Congressmen have lost reelection.  The ones that do lose in exceptional circumstances.  Steve Derounian lost in the 1964 Goldwater landslide.  Angelo Roncallo (whose district extended into a more Democratic part of Suffolk County) lost to Jerome Ambro in the 1974 Watergate year.  Dan Frisa lost in 1996 due to an issue that increased in local significance.  Biden does not appear to be popular at this time, and any Democratic Presidential nominee will end up having to run on Biden's record, like it or not.  (Ted Kennedy really didn't think that through in 1980.)

I'll go even further and say that if Republicans do not nominate Santos again, they will win both NY-3 and NY-4. It really wouldn't shock me if Trump won both districts (he should win NY-4 by double digits).

[Tekken_Guy]

She'll have a uphill battle to win.  NY 4 is the more Republican district in Nassau County; it is more Catholic (NY-3 is more Jewish) and it has a significant number of NYPD and FDNY employees living there.  Any Republican would have a tough time holding NY-3, but Santos has virtually ensured a Democratic victory in 2024 there. 

Nassau's Republican Party is far more on the ball than Suffolk's.  They have done more in tougher electoral territory.  This CD is an exception; the GOP won here in 1992 with David Levy, a moderate Republican, but he was upset in the 1994 primary by Assemblyman Dan Frisa.  Normally, Frisa would have been a safe incumbent, but a shooting on the LIRR led anti-gun activist Carolyn McCarthy to run and win, defeating Frisa.  (McCarthy, IMO, would not have defeated the more moderate Levy.)   It was also a time when the remnants of the Margiotta machine were having their troubles. 

Nassau County's Congressional politics have greater national implications than in 1996.  D'Esposito will be a good fit for that seat and the national GOP will ensure that he'll have all the money he needs.  Santos's seat is likely gone; it would have been gone anyway, but Santos has been a special breed of jackass that voters will remember, and not fondly.

Yeah But this one is Biden +15, Santos' is Biden +8. I do think 4 swings more right than 3 in 2024 and Santos would obviously lose but I don't see how this is such an uphill battle for dems(even though I agree D'Espesito is not DOA)

Nassau County, NY has always been more Democratic at the state and national level than Suffolk County, yet Nassau County has, over the years, had the more dominating Republican local governace because of it's Republican machine, arguably the last old-time political machine of its type.  I'm certain that things have changed since I lived in Long Island and politics is far more nationalized, but D'Esposito is hardly a bad fit.  And he's an incumbent, with all the incumbent's advantages. 

Not many Nassau Republican Congressmen have lost reelection.  The ones that do lose in exceptional circumstances.  Steve Derounian lost in the 1964 Goldwater landslide.  Angelo Roncallo (whose district extended into a more Democratic part of Suffolk County) lost to Jerome Ambro in the 1974 Watergate year.  Dan Frisa lost in 1996 due to an issue that increased in local significance.  Biden does not appear to be popular at this time, and any Democratic Presidential nominee will end up having to run on Biden's record, like it or not.  (Ted Kennedy really didn't think that through in 1980.)

I'll go even further and say that if Republicans do not nominate Santos again, they will win both NY-3 and NY-4. It really wouldn't shock me if Trump won both districts (he should win NY-4 by double digits).

I disagree. DeSantis or some non-Trump Republican has a shot of at least replicating Pinion’s performance here but no way is Trump carrying either seat.

[Smash255]

She'll have a uphill battle to win.  NY 4 is the more Republican district in Nassau County; it is more Catholic (NY-3 is more Jewish) and it has a significant number of NYPD and FDNY employees living there.  Any Republican would have a tough time holding NY-3, but Santos has virtually ensured a Democratic victory in 2024 there. 

Nassau's Republican Party is far more on the ball than Suffolk's.  They have done more in tougher electoral territory.  This CD is an exception; the GOP won here in 1992 with David Levy, a moderate Republican, but he was upset in the 1994 primary by Assemblyman Dan Frisa.  Normally, Frisa would have been a safe incumbent, but a shooting on the LIRR led anti-gun activist Carolyn McCarthy to run and win, defeating Frisa.  (McCarthy, IMO, would not have defeated the more moderate Levy.)   It was also a time when the remnants of the Margiotta machine were having their troubles. 

Nassau County's Congressional politics have greater national implications than in 1996.  D'Esposito will be a good fit for that seat and the national GOP will ensure that he'll have all the money he needs.  Santos's seat is likely gone; it would have been gone anyway, but Santos has been a special breed of jackass that voters will remember, and not fondly.

Yeah But this one is Biden +15, Santos' is Biden +8. I do think 4 swings more right than 3 in 2024 and Santos would obviously lose but I don't see how this is such an uphill battle for dems(even though I agree D'Espesito is not DOA)

Nassau County, NY has always been more Democratic at the state and national level than Suffolk County, yet Nassau County has, over the years, had the more dominating Republican local governace because of it's Republican machine, arguably the last old-time political machine of its type.  I'm certain that things have changed since I lived in Long Island and politics is far more nationalized, but D'Esposito is hardly a bad fit.  And he's an incumbent, with all the incumbent's advantages. 

Not many Nassau Republican Congressmen have lost reelection.  The ones that do lose in exceptional circumstances.  Steve Derounian lost in the 1964 Goldwater landslide.  Angelo Roncallo (whose district extended into a more Democratic part of Suffolk County) lost to Jerome Ambro in the 1974 Watergate year.  Dan Frisa lost in 1996 due to an issue that increased in local significance.  Biden does not appear to be popular at this time, and any Democratic Presidential nominee will end up having to run on Biden's record, like it or not.  (Ted Kennedy really didn't think that through in 1980.)

I'll go even further and say that if Republicans do not nominate Santos again, they will win both NY-3 and NY-4. It really wouldn't shock me if Trump won both districts (he should win NY-4 by double digits).

Lol say what?

[NewYorkExpress]

She'll have a uphill battle to win.  NY 4 is the more Republican district in Nassau County; it is more Catholic (NY-3 is more Jewish) and it has a significant number of NYPD and FDNY employees living there.  Any Republican would have a tough time holding NY-3, but Santos has virtually ensured a Democratic victory in 2024 there. 

Nassau's Republican Party is far more on the ball than Suffolk's.  They have done more in tougher electoral territory.  This CD is an exception; the GOP won here in 1992 with David Levy, a moderate Republican, but he was upset in the 1994 primary by Assemblyman Dan Frisa.  Normally, Frisa would have been a safe incumbent, but a shooting on the LIRR led anti-gun activist Carolyn McCarthy to run and win, defeating Frisa.  (McCarthy, IMO, would not have defeated the more moderate Levy.)   It was also a time when the remnants of the Margiotta machine were having their troubles. 

Nassau County's Congressional politics have greater national implications than in 1996.  D'Esposito will be a good fit for that seat and the national GOP will ensure that he'll have all the money he needs.  Santos's seat is likely gone; it would have been gone anyway, but Santos has been a special breed of jackass that voters will remember, and not fondly.

Yeah But this one is Biden +15, Santos' is Biden +8. I do think 4 swings more right than 3 in 2024 and Santos would obviously lose but I don't see how this is such an uphill battle for dems(even though I agree D'Espesito is not DOA)

Nassau County, NY has always been more Democratic at the state and national level than Suffolk County, yet Nassau County has, over the years, had the more dominating Republican local governace because of it's Republican machine, arguably the last old-time political machine of its type.  I'm certain that things have changed since I lived in Long Island and politics is far more nationalized, but D'Esposito is hardly a bad fit.  And he's an incumbent, with all the incumbent's advantages. 

Not many Nassau Republican Congressmen have lost reelection.  The ones that do lose in exceptional circumstances.  Steve Derounian lost in the 1964 Goldwater landslide.  Angelo Roncallo (whose district extended into a more Democratic part of Suffolk County) lost to Jerome Ambro in the 1974 Watergate year.  Dan Frisa lost in 1996 due to an issue that increased in local significance.  Biden does not appear to be popular at this time, and any Democratic Presidential nominee will end up having to run on Biden's record, like it or not.  (Ted Kennedy really didn't think that through in 1980.)

I'll go even further and say that if Republicans do not nominate Santos again, they will win both NY-3 and NY-4. It really wouldn't shock me if Trump won both districts (he should win NY-4 by double digits).

Lol say what?

Trump is very popular on Long Island, in ways a lot of non-Trump Republicans aren't. I don't think a DeSantis would carry NY-3 or NY-4, but Trump would by double digits.

[Tekken_Guy]

She'll have a uphill battle to win.  NY 4 is the more Republican district in Nassau County; it is more Catholic (NY-3 is more Jewish) and it has a significant number of NYPD and FDNY employees living there.  Any Republican would have a tough time holding NY-3, but Santos has virtually ensured a Democratic victory in 2024 there. 

Nassau's Republican Party is far more on the ball than Suffolk's.  They have done more in tougher electoral territory.  This CD is an exception; the GOP won here in 1992 with David Levy, a moderate Republican, but he was upset in the 1994 primary by Assemblyman Dan Frisa.  Normally, Frisa would have been a safe incumbent, but a shooting on the LIRR led anti-gun activist Carolyn McCarthy to run and win, defeating Frisa.  (McCarthy, IMO, would not have defeated the more moderate Levy.)   It was also a time when the remnants of the Margiotta machine were having their troubles. 

Nassau County's Congressional politics have greater national implications than in 1996.  D'Esposito will be a good fit for that seat and the national GOP will ensure that he'll have all the money he needs.  Santos's seat is likely gone; it would have been gone anyway, but Santos has been a special breed of jackass that voters will remember, and not fondly.

Yeah But this one is Biden +15, Santos' is Biden +8. I do think 4 swings more right than 3 in 2024 and Santos would obviously lose but I don't see how this is such an uphill battle for dems(even though I agree D'Espesito is not DOA)

Nassau County, NY has always been more Democratic at the state and national level than Suffolk County, yet Nassau County has, over the years, had the more dominating Republican local governace because of it's Republican machine, arguably the last old-time political machine of its type.  I'm certain that things have changed since I lived in Long Island and politics is far more nationalized, but D'Esposito is hardly a bad fit.  And he's an incumbent, with all the incumbent's advantages. 

Not many Nassau Republican Congressmen have lost reelection.  The ones that do lose in exceptional circumstances.  Steve Derounian lost in the 1964 Goldwater landslide.  Angelo Roncallo (whose district extended into a more Democratic part of Suffolk County) lost to Jerome Ambro in the 1974 Watergate year.  Dan Frisa lost in 1996 due to an issue that increased in local significance.  Biden does not appear to be popular at this time, and any Democratic Presidential nominee will end up having to run on Biden's record, like it or not.  (Ted Kennedy really didn't think that through in 1980.)

I'll go even further and say that if Republicans do not nominate Santos again, they will win both NY-3 and NY-4. It really wouldn't shock me if Trump won both districts (he should win NY-4 by double digits).

Lol say what?

Trump is very popular on Long Island, in ways a lot of non-Trump Republicans aren't. I don't think a DeSantis would carry NY-3 or NY-4, but Trump would by double digits.

The same Trump that lost both districts badly twice? That Trump?

[Smash255]

She'll have a uphill battle to win.  NY 4 is the more Republican district in Nassau County; it is more Catholic (NY-3 is more Jewish) and it has a significant number of NYPD and FDNY employees living there.  Any Republican would have a tough time holding NY-3, but Santos has virtually ensured a Democratic victory in 2024 there. 

Nassau's Republican Party is far more on the ball than Suffolk's.  They have done more in tougher electoral territory.  This CD is an exception; the GOP won here in 1992 with David Levy, a moderate Republican, but he was upset in the 1994 primary by Assemblyman Dan Frisa.  Normally, Frisa would have been a safe incumbent, but a shooting on the LIRR led anti-gun activist Carolyn McCarthy to run and win, defeating Frisa.  (McCarthy, IMO, would not have defeated the more moderate Levy.)   It was also a time when the remnants of the Margiotta machine were having their troubles. 

Nassau County's Congressional politics have greater national implications than in 1996.  D'Esposito will be a good fit for that seat and the national GOP will ensure that he'll have all the money he needs.  Santos's seat is likely gone; it would have been gone anyway, but Santos has been a special breed of jackass that voters will remember, and not fondly.

Yeah But this one is Biden +15, Santos' is Biden +8. I do think 4 swings more right than 3 in 2024 and Santos would obviously lose but I don't see how this is such an uphill battle for dems(even though I agree D'Espesito is not DOA)

Nassau County, NY has always been more Democratic at the state and national level than Suffolk County, yet Nassau County has, over the years, had the more dominating Republican local governace because of it's Republican machine, arguably the last old-time political machine of its type.  I'm certain that things have changed since I lived in Long Island and politics is far more nationalized, but D'Esposito is hardly a bad fit.  And he's an incumbent, with all the incumbent's advantages. 

Not many Nassau Republican Congressmen have lost reelection.  The ones that do lose in exceptional circumstances.  Steve Derounian lost in the 1964 Goldwater landslide.  Angelo Roncallo (whose district extended into a more Democratic part of Suffolk County) lost to Jerome Ambro in the 1974 Watergate year.  Dan Frisa lost in 1996 due to an issue that increased in local significance.  Biden does not appear to be popular at this time, and any Democratic Presidential nominee will end up having to run on Biden's record, like it or not.  (Ted Kennedy really didn't think that through in 1980.)

I'll go even further and say that if Republicans do not nominate Santos again, they will win both NY-3 and NY-4. It really wouldn't shock me if Trump won both districts (he should win NY-4 by double digits).

Lol say what?

Trump is very popular on Long Island, in ways a lot of non-Trump Republicans aren't. I don't think a DeSantis would carry NY-3 or NY-4, but Trump would by double digits.

He lost the 3rd by 8.6 and the 4th by almost 15.   How is that popular?

[Vosem]

She'll have a uphill battle to win.  NY 4 is the more Republican district in Nassau County; it is more Catholic (NY-3 is more Jewish) and it has a significant number of NYPD and FDNY employees living there.  Any Republican would have a tough time holding NY-3, but Santos has virtually ensured a Democratic victory in 2024 there. 

Nassau's Republican Party is far more on the ball than Suffolk's.  They have done more in tougher electoral territory.  This CD is an exception; the GOP won here in 1992 with David Levy, a moderate Republican, but he was upset in the 1994 primary by Assemblyman Dan Frisa.  Normally, Frisa would have been a safe incumbent, but a shooting on the LIRR led anti-gun activist Carolyn McCarthy to run and win, defeating Frisa.  (McCarthy, IMO, would not have defeated the more moderate Levy.)   It was also a time when the remnants of the Margiotta machine were having their troubles. 

Nassau County's Congressional politics have greater national implications than in 1996.  D'Esposito will be a good fit for that seat and the national GOP will ensure that he'll have all the money he needs.  Santos's seat is likely gone; it would have been gone anyway, but Santos has been a special breed of jackass that voters will remember, and not fondly.

Yeah But this one is Biden +15, Santos' is Biden +8. I do think 4 swings more right than 3 in 2024 and Santos would obviously lose but I don't see how this is such an uphill battle for dems(even though I agree D'Espesito is not DOA)

Nassau County, NY has always been more Democratic at the state and national level than Suffolk County, yet Nassau County has, over the years, had the more dominating Republican local governace because of it's Republican machine, arguably the last old-time political machine of its type.  I'm certain that things have changed since I lived in Long Island and politics is far more nationalized, but D'Esposito is hardly a bad fit.  And he's an incumbent, with all the incumbent's advantages. 

Not many Nassau Republican Congressmen have lost reelection.  The ones that do lose in exceptional circumstances.  Steve Derounian lost in the 1964 Goldwater landslide.  Angelo Roncallo (whose district extended into a more Democratic part of Suffolk County) lost to Jerome Ambro in the 1974 Watergate year.  Dan Frisa lost in 1996 due to an issue that increased in local significance.  Biden does not appear to be popular at this time, and any Democratic Presidential nominee will end up having to run on Biden's record, like it or not.  (Ted Kennedy really didn't think that through in 1980.)

I'll go even further and say that if Republicans do not nominate Santos again, they will win both NY-3 and NY-4. It really wouldn't shock me if Trump won both districts (he should win NY-4 by double digits).

Uh, D'Esposito won by 4 and Zeldin won by 2. Trump winning by 10 in NY-4 implies enough of a swing that he is carrying New York state; even if the swing is highly localized to Long Island it implies that he's coming within single-digits. My guess is that you see this only at the point when he's at >400 electoral votes nationally, and >55% in the NPV.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The D'Esposito campaign and outsider groups went hard against Gillen on crime in 2022, I remember seeing so many ads against her that I had predicted she would lose. It turns out I was right. But the question is whether she will remain damaged in a different year. I'm not so sure, but that's what makes the New York results from last year even more frustrating is that it's hard to discern whether individual candidates even mattered during the Republican over-performance of that election.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1682419920301170688

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1682419920301170688

Notably after it's become likely a remap occurs.