Why was it so hard for Dems to win NV governorship?

[David Hume]

For the past 24 years, there were only 4 years when NV had a D governor, namely the past four years. Since Lombardo has an over 60 approval and net 23, he is very likely to win reelection in 2026. If so, NV will only have 4/32 years of D governor.

This would be extremely remarkable for a D leaning swing state. While FL has 24 years of R governorship, it was a R leaning swing state, and FLDEM is widely known as the most incompetent state party. But NVDEM seems pretty competent otherwise.

[Mr. Smith]

Justice's flip in 2017 is the only reason WV has an R GOV right now, though I do suspect the bottom would fall out now if Justice had stayed and gotten re-elected [I think he could've done so one last time].

Oh you meant NV..

[Хahar 🤔]

"WV" isn't an abbreviation for Nevada.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

WV is not a "D leaning swing state"

[Atlas Force]

WV is not a "D leaning swing state"

Well it might’ve been during the Clinton administration.

[Tintrlvr]

It's way too early to say anything about Lombardo's reelection prospects. He literally just took office a few months ago.

[President Johnson]

I think it's just a coincidence. Nevada was less Democratic for most of that time or had moderate well-liked Republicans like Brian Sandoval, who won reelection with 70% of the vote in 2014 with a lot of crossover support. Meanwhile Sisolak remained a bland and uninspiring guy with no significant legislative accomplishments.

[TDAS04]

Just coincidence. Two of the those Democratic losses (2022 and 2006) were close and Brian Sandoval was very popular.

Also, even in closely divided states such as Nevada, it often seems that one party tends to dominate gubernatorial elections more often than not. Why is it so hard for Republicans to win NC governorship?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What the hell happened initially lol. "W" and "N" aren't even close on the keyboard.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Anyway this isn't really surprising at all.

Nevada has only been a "D-leaning swing state" since 2008 at the earliest. It obviously wasn't during the Bush years. And since then:

2010: R wave year
2014: R wave year
2018: D wins

That's the exact same results as Wisconsin and Michigan. Maybe 2006 was an outlier but Titus has never been a strong candidate and is a frequent underperformer in the House who even lost in 2010 in a district she never should've even with the environment that year.

[Ragnaroni]

Nevada was a Republican leaning state from 1999 to the late 2000s, 2008 was when it became a democrat leaning swing state. Brian Sandoval was very very popular.

I believe many states have a lag between their federal races and their downballot races. Texas had voted GOP in the 1980s but only really became red downballot in the 1990s. California had Wilson in the Clinton years. The Deep South stayed Dem for decades after they abandoned the Dems for the GOP.

Plus like BDTR said, 2010 and 2014 were GOP years, especially 2014 (Obama's 6 year itch). 2022 was a tilt R year and Nevada was pushed over the edge.

[Xing]

The only result that seemed kind of out of place with other results is 2022, but considering that Sisolak was never popular nor had much to run on, and Lombardo was a fairly "normal" Republican, it's not too surprising he narrowly lost.

[Sol]

Just coincidence. Two of the those Democratic losses (2022 and 2006) were close and Brian Sandoval was very popular.

Also, even in closely divided states such as Nevada, it often seems that one party tends to dominate gubernatorial elections more often than not. Why is it so hard for Republicans to win NC governorship?

These are usually pretty much coincidental. In North Carolina, for example, you had two popular governors in Hunt and Easley, who both served nice long terms and were able to win in a time when Democrats had a much easier time winning in the South. Perdue won narrowly in 2008, in large part because of Obama winning the state, and then was a pretty bad governor, getting turfed out by Pat McCrory. McCrory then embarassed himself as governor and lost like a dog to Cooper, who has governed fairly well and entrenched himself as governors often are able to do.

The big picture is that coincidences and governors being able to entrench themselves as popular incumbents can lead to what seems like a unique predilection for electing one party when the answer is really that that party got lucky.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

2022 is quite different from other states in both that there was an unpopular Governor and a good R opponent. Similar to Pennsylvania 2014.

The "good opponent" part is key, Republicans ran horrendous candidates in states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Arizona.

If you really want a surprising state where Democrats seem to have trouble winning the governorship, that's Massachusetts.

[Pollster]

Posted this in another thread shortly after election day, have come to firmly believe it after reviewing some 2018 polling as well:

One of my personal hunches that I have no hard data to back up with is that Sisolak always seemed like an "accidental" governor - he put up an unimpressive showing in a primary in 2018 that didn't attract any genuinely impressive candidates like most Dem primaries in 2018 did and then pretty clearly rode the wave to a similarly underwhelming general election victory against Laxalt himself who clearly has issues statewide here. He didn't seem to have a base and never really cultivated one beyond the state's core Democratic constituencies. That he came as close as he did to being re-elected in a tougher year against a tougher opponent can probably be chalked up to incumbency.

[Xing]

2022 is quite different from other states in both that there was an unpopular Governor and a good R opponent. Similar to Pennsylvania 2014.

The "good opponent" part is key, Republicans ran horrendous candidates in states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Arizona.

If you really want a surprising state where Democrats seem to have trouble winning the governorship, that's Massachusetts.

And Vermont. Sure, Phil Scott’s recent wins post-2016 haven’t been surprising given his popularity, but Peter Shumlin’s margins prior to Scott being elected were quite underwhelming.

[Senator Incitatus]

2022 is quite different from other states in both that there was an unpopular Governor and a good R opponent. Similar to Pennsylvania 2014.

The "good opponent" part is key, Republicans ran horrendous candidates in states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Arizona.

If you really want a surprising state where Democrats seem to have trouble winning the governorship, that's Massachusetts.

And Vermont. Sure, Phil Scott’s recent wins post-2016 haven’t been surprising given his popularity, but Peter Shumlin’s margins prior to Scott being elected were quite underwhelming.

Vermont's not a Democratic state in the same way as Massachusetts; it's better described as non-partisan liberal. Massachusetts has a legitimate urban party machine that openly chose not to contest the 2018 race.