The single most interesting state to watch...

[°Leprechaun]

If you had to pick one state as the most interesting state to watch in 2024, what would that state be?
You can comment as to why you chose that state.

I chose Wisconsin because it has had an interesting electoral history and could be close in 2024.

My guess is that Biden will win it

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Pennsylvania, aka the most likely tipping point state.

[°Leprechaun]

Pennsylvania, aka the most likely tipping point state.

It is unlikely that Biden would win without PA.
It could be crucial for the GOP, as well.

[SaneDemocrat]

Nevada.

[President Johnson]

Pennsylvania, aka the most likely tipping point state.

I agree. It would be surprising for Pennsylvania not to vote with winner, though I'd say Trump winning it would pretty much guarantee him 270 electoral votes. If Biden wins it, he has at least a 85-90% chance to get reelected.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

For me it’s Georgia, see how big the shifts are. If it’s going to stay blue republicans have a very narrow path going forward

[Skill and Chance]

For me it’s Georgia, see how big the shifts are. If it’s going to stay blue republicans have a very narrow path going forward

This.  There's no one specific state that's likely to control the outcome (there are enough Trump wins without PA scenarios out there), so I would pick Georgia because it has so many medium term implications for the coalitions.

[Thank you for being a friend...]

I'd say Pennsylvania as well only because I know the state so much better than the others.  I'd like to see the swings (if a rematch) in Lehigh, Northampton, Monroe, Lackawanna, and the Philadelphia suburban counties (Montgomery, Bucks, Chester, and Delaware).

[Mr. Smith]

Texas or Arizona.

[Spectator]

Texas is probably the Senate tipping point.

[Mr. Smith]

Texas is probably the Senate tipping point.

It was in 2018...well, it was the one by the TV, (Indiana was the one once the numbers came out.)

Wouldn't be surprised if it's the one on TV again too.

[Pres Mike]

1. Alaska. Mary Peltola is on the ballot and she is very popular. In theory, she could help the top of the ticket. Biden probably won't win the state, but it moved left in 2020. I suspect it'll move further left in 2024

2. Ohio. Once the most important swing state, it has been moving right since 2016. Slight move left in 2022. Sherrod Brown is the incument and fairly popular. It'll be interesting to see if he wins and helps Biden any at top of the ticket.

3. Kansas. Another sleeper state like Alaska.

[°Leprechaun]

Iowa will be interesting. It has been trending right for years. Is there a possibility that it could swing left?
It would make more sense to target Iowa than states like Texas, Florida, or Ohio, because the larger a state is the harder it is to win, with the exception of Pennsylvania.

[TML]

Iowa will be interesting. It has been trending right for years. Is there a possibility that it could swing left?
It would make more sense to target Iowa than states like Texas, Florida, or Ohio, because the larger a state is the harder it is to win, with the exception of Pennsylvania.

I'm not confident about Iowa moving left, especially since that it has now been stripped of its first position in Democratic presidential caucuses/primaries, which would mean fewer visits by national Democratic politicians (and consequently less investment in party infrastructure downballot). Additionally, this state is whiter and less educated than average, so its demographics are not very favorable for Democrats in their current direction.

In terms of larger states, I think Democrats should definitely target Texas, similar to how they targeted (and ultimately flipped) Arizona & Georgia in 2020 after those two states showed signs of significant movement leftward in the previous election cycle (Texas is now in a similar position). You could make the case that it makes less sense to target Florida and/or Ohio due to those states trending right, but Florida has a Senate race which may be considered less than safe for Republicans (just like Texas) and Ohio has a Senate race which has a popular Democratic incumbent but many users on this forum believe that his survival would depend a lot on the Democrats keeping the state relatively close on the presidential level.

In the long run, however, I believe Democrats should have a "50-state strategy" similar to what they did in the mid-2000s - i.e. build party infrastructure everywhere across the nation so that they can win races starting at the local level and then working their way upward to higher level offices.

[S019]

North Carolina

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

1. Texas
2. Georgia
3. Alaska

Honorable mention: Utah

Iowa will be interesting. It has been trending right for years. Is there a possibility that it could swing left?
It would make more sense to target Iowa than states like Texas, Florida, or Ohio, because the larger a state is the harder it is to win, with the exception of Pennsylvania.

If that's so, then it makes more sense to target Alaska than Iowa.

[°Leprechaun]

1. Texas
2. Georgia
3. Alaska

Honorable mention: Utah

Iowa will be interesting. It has been trending right for years. Is there a possibility that it could swing left?
It would make more sense to target Iowa than states like Texas, Florida, or Ohio, because the larger a state is the harder it is to win, with the exception of Pennsylvania.

If that's so, then it makes more sense to target Alaska than Iowa.

Ok, but the statement only applies to possible swing states, although I didn't say that. Alaska is not a swing state.
States which had  margin greater than 10% are not likely to be swing states.
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/data.php?year=2020&datatype=national&def=1&f=1&off=0&elect=0

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

1. Texas
2. Georgia
3. Alaska

Honorable mention: Utah

Iowa will be interesting. It has been trending right for years. Is there a possibility that it could swing left?
It would make more sense to target Iowa than states like Texas, Florida, or Ohio, because the larger a state is the harder it is to win, with the exception of Pennsylvania.

If that's so, then it makes more sense to target Alaska than Iowa.

Ok, but the statement only applies to possible swing states; although I didn't say that. Alaska is not a swing state

Not yet. But yes.

[°Leprechaun]

Flipping Alaska would make it a tie if this were the map.
President Trump, Vice President Harris?

[Reactionary Libertarian]

Texas

[jamestroll]

For me NY and IL actually.

I have a hot take and a sneaking suspicion that they may vote very identical or even IL slightly to the left.

We shall see.

[Xing]

Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. At this point, Republicans need both, and yet the midterms didn’t suggest either state is trending significantly Republican at the moment.

[DS0816]

This is not limited to just one state. Realistically, “the single most interesting state” is whether one is personally interested in one specific state more than any other. The leading bellwether states are Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. They have voted for all presidential election winners in the last four cycles of 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020. They now have the longest unbroken streak. So, between these three states, I could not pick one. I do live in one of them—Michigan—but this is more involving than to adhere to only one state.

[Skill and Chance]

Flipping Alaska would make it a tie if this were the map.
President Trump, Vice President Harris?

Ehhh... the new senate votes on the VP and that's 5 Dem senators standing for reelection in states being won by the Republican nominee, so it's probably just a boring Republican win.