If Lee Zeldin won in 2022, would he win re-election in 2026?

[Lincoln Project]

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[Spectator]

Incumbent governors are rarely defeated even in hostile territory, so I’d guess Zeldin.

[SnowLabrador]

Incumbent governors are rarely defeated even in hostile territory, so I’d guess Zeldin.

This.

[Sir Mohamed]

Incumbent governors are rarely defeated even in hostile territory, so I’d guess Zeldin.

While incumbents tend to win reelection by looking at general statistics, his views are still out of touch the mainstream in NYS and his election would have been nothing more but a culmination of protest votes and low Dem turnout. The result have been endless battles with the D-controlled legislature and ineffective governing. A reasonably strong challenger could have ended Zeldin's resign after a single term.

[Pollster]

Depends how much the Democratic legislature actually lets him accomplish - big part of the reason blue state Republican governors and red state Democratic governors are able to be so popular is because they can't really do anything explicitly partisan with their legislatures.

[Roll Roons]

He could, depending on how his term went.

Unlike Senators/House members, incumbent governors rarely lose because of partisanship/national environment alone.

[NewYorkExpress]

Probably depends on who New York Democrats actually nominate. If it's Letita James or one of the non-AOC Democrats in the Congressional Delegation, I think he loses.

If it's AOC, Eric Adams or anyone in the state legislature, he wins.

[Vosem]

Zeldin is one of those who clearly eventually covets the Presidency, so I actually suspect probably not. He would've governed too far to New York's right, and clearly been defeated in a Republican midterm, while in a Democratic midterm my guess is he wouldn't have sought reelection to focus on a 2028 bid.

[Zedonathin2020]

In a Biden six year itch he probably would, incumbent governors rarely tend to lose reelection anyway. In a GOP midterm? He would lose about 58–39%, MAYBE he could get over 40% if he’s lucky.

Although with the Biden six year itch I could see the argument on him still losing reelection, given he would, as Vosem said, "govern to New York’s right".

[oldtimer]

If Zeldin had won we would have been the VP nominee for Republicans in 2024.

And if he had won then the midterms would had been so bad for Democrats that Republicans would have been sure victors in 2024, so my guess is that Zeldin would have been VP in 2026 rather than run for re-election as governor.

[President Johnson]

Depends on how his term goes and why he actually won in the first place and with what kind of coalition. If it was just Democrats staying home and his term not going well, he'd be DOA.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Depends how much the Democratic legislature actually lets him accomplish - big part of the reason blue state Republican governors and red state Democratic governors are able to be so popular is because they can't really do anything explicitly partisan with their legislatures.

I think he wins largely because of above. he really can't govern to far right for New York without a legislature to support him.

He vetoes some things that will anger  progressives but not annoy the average new yorker.

[Suburbia]

Zeldin is one of those who clearly eventually covets the Presidency, so I actually suspect probably not. He would've governed too far to New York's right, and clearly been defeated in a Republican midterm, while in a Democratic midterm my guess is he wouldn't have sought reelection to focus on a 2028 bid.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He was never gonna win NY