Honestly, based on what's getting the most coverage- two things: gender and sexuality, it's going to an up and down the ballot referendum on LGBTQ issues; and abortion/reproductive rights in general.
Donald Trump is now running as the man that's going to set a torch to the Rainbow Flag and promote traditional Biblical values. He is the candidate of the Religious Right.
Joe Biden is going to run as a socially progressive incumbent.
The war over Gender and Sexuality and Reproduction is what it all is about.
The economy? No, that's a decade ago. Foreign policy? That's two decades ago.
You can't just extrapolate 2022 like that. Biggest issues in most recent elections:
2022: abortion bans + stolen election stuff
2020: COVID
2018: healthcare + sexual harassment
2016: immigration + control of Supreme Court
2014: Ebola (and with Republicans taking the pro-quarantine position!)
2012: healthcare
2010: taxes/spending
2008: bad economy
2006: war/national security (with anti-war winning dramatically)
2004: war/national security + gay rights (with pro-war/anti-gay rights winning)
2002: war/national security (with pro-war winning)
2000: IDK- Social security? Ethics?
Not a lot of repeats in there except for the War on Terror. If abortion follows that arc, Biden gets narrowly reelected on pro-choice grounds but it's followed by a pro-life landslide in the states in 2026 and the issue fades away after that.
Several of the top issues didn't even exist until closer to the election than we are to 2024! Dobbs leaked in May 2022, COVID became known in Jan 2020, Scalia died in Feb 2016, Ebola started in the fall of 2014, and the great recession didn't begin until December 2007 and didn't become a huge deal until March 2008. The idea of 2002 being a war election would have been ridiculous in the spring of 2001.
Poll
