Impact and likelihood of this shocking outcome

[THKL]

Biden/Harris 47.8% 270 EV
Trump/Haley 48.3% 268 EV

The unthinkable happens, the 2022 Midterms prove to be a portent of the future with Trump narrowly winning the Popular vote by over performing in Safe Democratic States (CA is only Biden+20, NY is only Biden+15, etc. due to massive gains with Hispanics and low Democratic turnout in Safe States), and the Sun Belt (Trump wins both Texas and Florida by 10 points, while flipping GA, AZ, and NV, due to massive gains with Hispanics and low Black turnout in the South) while narrowly losing the Electoral College to Biden due to barely losing PA, MI, and WI, (The backlash over the Dobbs ruling and Jan 6 hits Trump in the Secular Midwestern Swing States)   !

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Insurrection 2 Electric Boogaloo

[Skill and Chance]

IDK but this result would be safer from shenanigans than the 2020 win, because  the only R trifecta state going for Biden has Sununu as governor and he wouldn't participate in this. 

How close was VA given the Trump majority win in GA?

[THKL]

Insurrection 2 Electric Boogaloo

IDK but this result would be safer from shenanigans than the 2020 win, because  the only R trifecta state going for Biden has Sununu as governor and he wouldn't participate in this. 

How close was VA given the Trump majority win in GA?

The scary thing about this scenario is that all it would take is One faithless elector to throw the election to the House of Representatives (where Trump would win due to each State Delegation getting one vote each), along with the fact that even if that didn’t happen, Republicans would definitely flip the Senate (they would flip WV, MT, OH, along with one or both of AZ and NV for a 53-47 or 54-46 Republican Senate Majority), and probably narrowly hold the House (probably a 220-215 to a 225-210 Republican House majority), due to Biden underperforming in NY and CA, thus meaning that Republicans could theoretically throw out the PA, MI, and WI electoral votes on a Party line vote on Jan 6th 2025, and hand the election to Trump, while using his narrow Popular Vote victory as a justification for stealing it from Biden, 🤢🤮!

[Tekken_Guy]

Insurrection 2 Electric Boogaloo

The scary thing about this scenario is that all it would take is One faithless elector to throw the election to the House of Representatives (where Trump would win due to each State Delegation getting one vote each), along with the fact that even if that didn’t happen, Republicans would definitely flip the Senate (they would flip WV, MT, OH, along with one or both of AZ and NV for a 53-47 or 54-46 Senate Majority), and probably narrowly hold the House (probably a 220-215 to a 225-210 Republican House majority), due to Biden underperforming in NY and CA, thus meaning that Republicans could theoretically throw out the PA, MI, and WI electoral votes on a Party line vote on Jan 6th 2025, and hand the election to Trump, while using his narrow Popular Vote victory as a justification for stealing it from Biden, 🤢🤮!

I think given rust belt strength for Biden there’s a chance Tester and Brown hold on.

[THKL]

Insurrection 2 Electric Boogaloo

The scary thing about this scenario is that all it would take is One faithless elector to throw the election to the House of Representatives (where Trump would win due to each State Delegation getting one vote each), along with the fact that even if that didn’t happen, Republicans would definitely flip the Senate (they would flip WV, MT, OH, along with one or both of AZ and NV for a 53-47 or 54-46 Senate Majority), and probably narrowly hold the House (probably a 220-215 to a 225-210 Republican House majority), due to Biden underperforming in NY and CA, thus meaning that Republicans could theoretically throw out the PA, MI, and WI electoral votes on a Party line vote on Jan 6th 2025, and hand the election to Trump, while using his narrow Popular Vote victory as a justification for stealing it from Biden, 🤢🤮!

I think given rust belt strength for Biden there’s a chance Tester and Brown hold on.

If Biden is winning all his 2020 States plus NC, with a 6-7 point win in the Popular Vote, then I could imagine Brown and Tester holding on, but in this scenario where he is narrowly losing the Popular Vote, underperforming in the Safe States, losing GA, AZ, and NV, and barely winning PA, MI, and WI, it seems extremely unlikely that Brown and Tester would hold on.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I think it's very unlikely, particularly the popular vote margin - say <5% for the EV, and <1% for the popular vote; 2024 is going to see very motivated blue voters, especially if Trump is the GOP nominee again.  If it does happen, Democrats support following the law, while the fascist GOP collectively lose what fragile hold on sane reality they may have possessed as Donald screams and rages like his cartoon namesake. The popular vote (like the deficit) will suddenly become of supreme import, and Biden's legal victory a "theft".

Nebraska will politically explode, with a plurality (but not super-majority) of the legislature rabidly trying to hand the election to Trump via a tie and the House. The governor and SoS will be under immense pressure, while the 2nd District member of the Electoral College will face a stream of death threats at an absolute minimum. Across the board, Biden's electors will be targets for intimidation and bribery.

There will be a massive stream of baseless legal challenges and calls from revolution from the GOP, but outside of NE, this particular outcome doesn't leave them with a lot of leverage.  While there will be loud calls by the Trumpists for legislative intervention in WI, MI, and PA, I doubt they go anywhere. 

If NE-2 holds firm, and with legal challenges elsewhere failing, once the electors vote (presuming none are successfully compromised by the GOP) the incoming Congress is unlikely to be willing to overturn the election (though some members certainly will be). That leaves the Trump-led GOP will have to choose between grudging acknowledgement of their loss or flirting with open insurrection (again).

The Biden administration will be prepared for another DC-focused coup attempt, and it will be too late for state-targeted violence to have any impact. (I expect that will be attempted in small ways, and fail, in the run-up to the actual Electoral College vote.) Donald will keep screaming, but there's not much else for the GOP to do. They can whine endlessly that Biden isn't really President, but that won't change the fact that he is. Many red state governors and their parties will doubtless echo their fuher's claims, but unless they're prepared to secede, there's little they can actually do.

2025 will feature lots of red-state posturing against the Federal government, to little immediate practical effect. The GOP will (again) face a choice on whether they want to reject Donald's tantrums and take some baby-steps towards sanity in 2026 and 2028, or whether they want to triple-down on the "stolen election" BS. There are immediate secession campaigns in several red states, which go nowhere. 

If the GOP does steal the White House...
The alternative scenario is that GOP calls to violence and tyranny have some success - threats, violence and perhaps assassinations actually succeed in disrupting the EV, pushing the Presidency into the House which then elects Trump. Democrats are then actually facing what the GOP has been whining about since 2020: an illegitimate but technically legal and particularly despicable President from the other party.

The immediate response will be massive nationwide protests (overwhelmingly peaceful, but the GOP will claim they are identical to, if not worse than, January 6th), calling on Trump to resign or be impeached. (He will not.) Over the following months, protests will be constant but much smaller, and Democrats will argue over three broad course of action: secession (either immediate or as a goal), civil disobedience (active refusal to cooperate with Trumpist authorities in DC, to varying extents), and BAU (denouncing Trump but taking no concrete action). Which options win out in which states isn't something predictable, but I would bet on some sort of secession referendum in CA before 2027.

[emailking]

I don't know how shocking it is, might be possible if RFK runs 3rd party or something, but the impact would be Trump saying it was rigged, maybe NE-02 was stolen or something, and there would be a lot of protests. I don't think a faithless elector would be very likely, because they would know how critical their vote is. There has only been 1 faithless elector in history with a resonable belief his vote could have affected the outcome. Plus after 2016 there's only like ~dozen states that still allow faithless electors I think, and SCOTUS has now ruled you can bind them to the point of punishing afterwards.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

It would actually be pretty funny if Trump won the popular vote but lost the electoral college. But yeah there would definitely be another insurrection and a lot worse this time.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It would actually be pretty funny if Trump won the popular vote but lost the electoral college. But yeah there would definitely be another insurrection and a lot worse this time.

It would be very interesting...in a Chinese sense. I hope it never comes to that.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

This is very possible, I would argue likely for a Biden win against a non Trump nominee.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Insurrection 2 Electric Boogaloo

The scary thing about this scenario is that all it would take is One faithless elector to throw the election to the House of Representatives (where Trump would win due to each State Delegation getting one vote each), along with the fact that even if that didn’t happen, Republicans would definitely flip the Senate (they would flip WV, MT, OH, along with one or both of AZ and NV for a 53-47 or 54-46 Senate Majority), and probably narrowly hold the House (probably a 220-215 to a 225-210 Republican House majority), due to Biden underperforming in NY and CA, thus meaning that Republicans could theoretically throw out the PA, MI, and WI electoral votes on a Party line vote on Jan 6th 2025, and hand the election to Trump, while using his narrow Popular Vote victory as a justification for stealing it from Biden, 🤢🤮!

I think given rust belt strength for Biden there’s a chance Tester and Brown hold on.

If Biden is winning all his 2020 States plus NC, with a 6-7 point win in the Popular Vote, then I could imagine Brown and Tester holding on, but in this scenario where he is narrowly losing the Popular Vote, underperforming in the Safe States, losing GA, AZ, and NV, and barely winning PA, MI, and WI, it seems extremely unlikely that Brown and Tester would hold on.

Brown no, but I'd suspect MT gets a lot bluer in this scenario, being very white and secular. So I think given Tester has more crossover appeal than Brown, he would likely win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol GALLEGO and Rosen are gonna win have you seen the AZ polls AZ isn't Lean R anymore

We get the same map AZ and NV ,Lean R

[OriAr]

If Trump flips AZ + GA he also flips WI at minimum.
Don't underestimate how toxic Trump is in the sunbelt burbs.

[OSR stands with Israel]

This seems more like a DeSantis Vs Biden scenario rather than Trump vs Biden .

[Skill and Chance]

This seems more like a DeSantis Vs Biden scenario rather than Trump vs Biden .

Trying to imagine what a plausible EV/PV split against Trump would look like.  Would probably have to be massive GOP  Hispanic gains with NC and GA both trending dramatically left at the same time?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This seems more like a DeSantis Vs Biden scenario rather than Trump vs Biden .

Trying to imagine what a plausible EV/PV split against Trump would look like.  Would probably have to be massive GOP  Hispanic gains with NC and GA both trending dramatically left at the same time?

Personally I would switch NC with PA and WI. Ds have shown considerable strength in MW and Acela during the Biden presidency, Trump would likely make PMW (Pennsylvania Michigan Wisconsin) closer than DeSantis, but Biden's probably still going to win all three of them again. Meanwhile, NC does not seem to be at the point where it is Democratic enough for a Dem losing the popular vote to win it.

[THKL]

This seems more like a DeSantis Vs Biden scenario rather than Trump vs Biden .

Trying to imagine what a plausible EV/PV split against Trump would look like.  Would probably have to be massive GOP  Hispanic gains with NC and GA both trending dramatically left at the same time?

PA and even WI are still more Democratic then GA, NC, AZ, and potentially even NV. I’ve never been big on the “Sun Belt” hype, as those States are still much more Republican then most think and can only be won with extremely massive Black turnout (GA and NC, both of which have voter suppression laws explicitly designed to stop this) or Hispanics staying extremely Democratic and turning out massively (AZ and NV), and all four states need Never Trump suburbanites to stay voting Democratic (this would probably happen with Trump, but would definitely not happen with Desantis).

This seems more like a DeSantis Vs Biden scenario rather than Trump vs Biden .

My gut tells me this scenario is highly unlikely for either Trump or Desantis, but if forced to pick who it’s slightly more likely for, I would say it’s easier to imagine Trump choking like this, because I can’t imagine Desantis losing to Biden unless Trump runs Third-Party (highly unlikely due to sore loser laws). My gut right now tells me that 2024 will either be a decisive Republican win (they would narrowly win the Popular Vote and all the Trump 2016 States plus NV and possibly minus MI with Desantis, or with Trump if their is an Economic and/or Foreign Policy disaster and/or Third-Party spoiler bid) or a decisive Democratic win (Biden winning all his 2020 States plus NC against Trump with no Economic and/or Foreign Policy disaster and/or Third-Party spoiler bid).

[Skill and Chance]

This seems more like a DeSantis Vs Biden scenario rather than Trump vs Biden .

Trying to imagine what a plausible EV/PV split against Trump would look like.  Would probably have to be massive GOP  Hispanic gains with NC and GA both trending dramatically left at the same time?

PA and even WI are still more Democratic then GA and NC, I’ve never been big on the “Sun Belt” hype, as those States are still much more Republican then most think and can only be won with extremely massive Black turnout, and the voter suppression laws in both states will probably make sure that never happens again.

For the record, I don't think any Southern states other than VA and GA are going Dem for president anytime soon.  That having been said, turnout data suggests that, except for the 2 extreme cases of mailing every registered voter a ballot and requiring an excuse for any voting before election day at all (neither of which was in play in GA/NC), none of these election administration laws really matter.     

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Immediate reaction pandemonium. A popular vote win by Trump and him losing the EC- imeadly flips a good number of partisans opinions on it from 2016.

I presume the closest state (that matters at least to flip the election) would be WI so I would expect demands for recounts, possible attempt to have the state leg send delegates that goes no where.

I don't think a faithless democratic elector is likely here. Electors are generally the ultimate party hacks and I can't see any throwing the election to Trump by putting it in the House.

The real pressure (after WI presumably) would be for Nebraska to change its rules and do winner take all. This causes an immediate reaction from Maine if Nebraska goes for it. It would end up in Court and either both states could change their rules or neither could (I think the ruling would likely be neither can change their rules after the vote). So nothing would change (this election at least)

I presume with a popular vote win the GOP keeps the House and takes the Senate- picking up OH, WV, MT, NV, AZ.

[Skill and Chance]

Immediate reaction pandemonium. A popular vote win by Trump and him losing the EC- imeadly flips a good number of partisans opinions on it from 2016.

I presume the closest state (that matters at least to flip the election) would be WI so I would expect demands for recounts, possible attempt to have the state leg send delegates that goes no where.

I don't think a faithless democratic elector is likely here. Electors are generally the ultimate party hacks and I can't see any throwing the election to Trump by putting it in the House.

The real pressure (after WI presumably) would be for Nebraska to change its rules and do winner take all. This causes an immediate reaction from Maine if Nebraska goes for it. It would end up in Court and either both states could change their rules or neither could (I think the ruling would likely be neither can change their rules after the vote). So nothing would change (this election at least)

I presume with a popular vote win the GOP keeps the House and takes the Senate- picking up OH, WV, MT, NV, AZ.

Republicans (technically non-partisan conservatives) don't really have lawmaking control in Nebraska because their legislature has procedural rules similar to the US Senate,  so I don't see that going anywhere.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Immediate reaction pandemonium. A popular vote win by Trump and him losing the EC- imeadly flips a good number of partisans opinions on it from 2016.

I presume the closest state (that matters at least to flip the election) would be WI so I would expect demands for recounts, possible attempt to have the state leg send delegates that goes no where.

I don't think a faithless democratic elector is likely here. Electors are generally the ultimate party hacks and I can't see any throwing the election to Trump by putting it in the House.

The real pressure (after WI presumably) would be for Nebraska to change its rules and do winner take all. This causes an immediate reaction from Maine if Nebraska goes for it. It would end up in Court and either both states could change their rules or neither could (I think the ruling would likely be neither can change their rules after the vote). So nothing would change (this election at least)

I presume with a popular vote win the GOP keeps the House and takes the Senate- picking up OH, WV, MT, NV, AZ.

Republicans (technically non-partisan conservatives) don't really have lawmaking control in Nebraska because their legislature has procedural rules similar to the US Senate,  so I don't see that going anywhere.

Do they have a nuclear option, like what Harry Reid did on all Judges but SC ones and McConnell extended to SCJ?

[oldtimer]

Insurrection 2 Electric Boogaloo

It will be the second worst result possible.
It will lead to general disbelief of the result,s due to people being used to Republicans having an E.C. advantage.
And genuine reactions that will be more widespread and more violent, especially within polarized states such as Georgia.

The worst one will be Biden losing by the smallest slimmer and Democrats changing the rules to keep him in, forcing some Republican states not to recognise the Federal Government.

[Lincoln Project]

I think it's very unlikely, particularly the popular vote margin - say <5% for the EV, and <1% for the popular vote; 2024 is going to see very motivated blue voters, especially if Trump is the GOP nominee again.  If it does happen, Democrats support following the law, while the fascist GOP collectively lose what fragile hold on sane reality they may have possessed as Donald screams and rages like his cartoon namesake. The popular vote (like the deficit) will suddenly become of supreme import, and Biden's legal victory a "theft".

Nebraska will politically explode, with a plurality (but not super-majority) of the legislature rabidly trying to hand the election to Trump via a tie and the House. The governor and SoS will be under immense pressure, while the 2nd District member of the Electoral College will face a stream of death threats at an absolute minimum. Across the board, Biden's electors will be targets for intimidation and bribery.

There will be a massive stream of baseless legal challenges and calls from revolution from the GOP, but outside of NE, this particular outcome doesn't leave them with a lot of leverage.  While there will be loud calls by the Trumpists for legislative intervention in WI, MI, and PA, I doubt they go anywhere.  

If NE-2 holds firm, and with legal challenges elsewhere failing, once the electors vote (presuming none are successfully compromised by the GOP) the incoming Congress is unlikely to be willing to overturn the election (though some members certainly will be). That leaves the Trump-led GOP will have to choose between grudging acknowledgement of their loss or flirting with open insurrection (again).

The Biden administration will be prepared for another DC-focused coup attempt, and it will be too late for state-targeted violence to have any impact. (I expect that will be attempted in small ways, and fail, in the run-up to the actual Electoral College vote.) Donald will keep screaming, but there's not much else for the GOP to do. They can whine endlessly that Biden isn't really President, but that won't change the fact that he is. Many red state governors and their parties will doubtless echo their fuher's claims, but unless they're prepared to secede, there's little they can actually do.

2025 will feature lots of red-state posturing against the Federal government, to little immediate practical effect. The GOP will (again) face a choice on whether they want to reject Donald's tantrums and take some baby-steps towards sanity in 2026 and 2028, or whether they want to triple-down on the "stolen election" BS. There are immediate secession campaigns in several red states, which go nowhere.  

If the GOP does steal the White House...
The alternative scenario is that GOP calls to violence and tyranny have some success - threats, violence and perhaps assassinations actually succeed in disrupting the EV, pushing the Presidency into the House which then elects Trump. Democrats are then actually facing what the GOP has been whining about since 2020: an illegitimate but technically legal and particularly despicable President from the other party.

The immediate response will be massive nationwide protests (overwhelmingly peaceful, but the GOP will claim they are identical to, if not worse than, January 6th), calling on Trump to resign or be impeached. (He will not.) Over the following months, protests will be constant but much smaller, and Democrats will argue over three broad course of action: secession (either immediate or as a goal), civil disobedience (active refusal to cooperate with Trumpist authorities in DC, to varying extents), and BAU (denouncing Trump but taking no concrete action). Which options win out in which states isn't something predictable, but I would bet on some sort of secession referendum in CA before 2027.

If the GOP does steal the White House…
“Overwhelmingly peaceful”
“Secession”

Bro, if you’re going to make some left-wing horror porn or whatever, at least make it consistent.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I think it's very unlikely, particularly the popular vote margin - say <5% for the EV, and <1% for the popular vote; 2024 is going to see very motivated blue voters, especially if Trump is the GOP nominee again.  If it does happen, Democrats support following the law, while the fascist GOP collectively lose what fragile hold on sane reality they may have possessed as Donald screams and rages like his cartoon namesake. The popular vote (like the deficit) will suddenly become of supreme import, and Biden's legal victory a "theft".

Nebraska will politically explode, with a plurality (but not super-majority) of the legislature rabidly trying to hand the election to Trump via a tie and the House. The governor and SoS will be under immense pressure, while the 2nd District member of the Electoral College will face a stream of death threats at an absolute minimum. Across the board, Biden's electors will be targets for intimidation and bribery.

There will be a massive stream of baseless legal challenges and calls from revolution from the GOP, but outside of NE, this particular outcome doesn't leave them with a lot of leverage.  While there will be loud calls by the Trumpists for legislative intervention in WI, MI, and PA, I doubt they go anywhere.  

If NE-2 holds firm, and with legal challenges elsewhere failing, once the electors vote (presuming none are successfully compromised by the GOP) the incoming Congress is unlikely to be willing to overturn the election (though some members certainly will be). That leaves the Trump-led GOP will have to choose between grudging acknowledgement of their loss or flirting with open insurrection (again).

The Biden administration will be prepared for another DC-focused coup attempt, and it will be too late for state-targeted violence to have any impact. (I expect that will be attempted in small ways, and fail, in the run-up to the actual Electoral College vote.) Donald will keep screaming, but there's not much else for the GOP to do. They can whine endlessly that Biden isn't really President, but that won't change the fact that he is. Many red state governors and their parties will doubtless echo their fuher's claims, but unless they're prepared to secede, there's little they can actually do.

2025 will feature lots of red-state posturing against the Federal government, to little immediate practical effect. The GOP will (again) face a choice on whether they want to reject Donald's tantrums and take some baby-steps towards sanity in 2026 and 2028, or whether they want to triple-down on the "stolen election" BS. There are immediate secession campaigns in several red states, which go nowhere.  

If the GOP does steal the White House...
The alternative scenario is that GOP calls to violence and tyranny have some success - threats, violence and perhaps assassinations actually succeed in disrupting the EV, pushing the Presidency into the House which then elects Trump. Democrats are then actually facing what the GOP has been whining about since 2020: an illegitimate but technically legal and particularly despicable President from the other party.

The immediate response will be massive nationwide protests (overwhelmingly peaceful, but the GOP will claim they are identical to, if not worse than, January 6th), calling on Trump to resign or be impeached. (He will not.) Over the following months, protests will be constant but much smaller, and Democrats will argue over three broad course of action: secession (either immediate or as a goal), civil disobedience (active refusal to cooperate with Trumpist authorities in DC, to varying extents), and BAU (denouncing Trump but taking no concrete action). Which options win out in which states isn't something predictable, but I would bet on some sort of secession referendum in CA before 2027.

If the GOP does steal the White House…
“Overwhelmingly peaceful”
“Secession”

Bro, if you’re going to make some left-wing horror porn or whatever, at least make it consistent.

If you're going to offer up criticism, I'd hope you can do better than publicly demonstrating your poor reading comprehension.

Here, I'll make it easier for you to understand.

The immediate response will be massive nationwide protests (overwhelmingly peaceful, but the GOP will claim they are identical to, if not worse than, January 6th), calling on Trump to resign or be impeached. (He will not.) Over the following months, protests will be constant but much smaller, and Democrats will argue over three broad course of action: secession (either immediate or as a goal), civil disobedience (active refusal to cooperate with Trumpist authorities in DC, to varying extents), and BAU (denouncing Trump but taking no concrete action). Which options win out in which states isn't something predictable, but I would bet on some sort of secession referendum in CA before 2027.

In the hypothetical scenario I outlined, there will be protests, and they will be as peaceful as the right allows them to be.

There will also be a lot of argument among Democratic voters in the months afterward. One of the things they will argue about is secession. The earliest actual movement on the secession issue would be years later in CA, and it would be a referendum akin to Brexit (i.e. initiating a slow process, if it happens at all).