Why did "anti-Trump" Republicans like DeSantis in the first place?

[Alben Barkley]

He's basically just a clone of Trump in terms of policy, except less effective when it comes to picking his battles (abortion, Disney, etc.) and less funny/magnetic a figure.

He barely won by the skin of his teeth in his first race against an extremely weak Democratic candidate; had just a couple thousand votes been flipped, we wouldn't even be talking about him.

At least there was some "theoretical" reason as to why the likes of Scott Walker were propped up despite anyone with two eyes and a brain being able to tell you he was never going to be president.

Why and how did these people manage to delude themselves into ever thinking DeSanctimonious would be a viable alternative???

Were they literally just desperate for ANY warm body to run against Trump? Did they think winning in (checks notes) FLORIDA against the worst Democratic state party in the country somehow equated to significant nationwide victory?

Moreover, why are some people STILL pretending DeSanctimonious has a chance when his campaign is already dead in the water before it even officially began?

If I was a serious Never Trumper in the GOP, I'd first of all have been enthusiastically united behind John Kasich in 2016; that man scared the s--t out of me and I think he could have won everything Trump did plus Nevada, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Maine. Possibly Virginia and Colorado, maybe even New Mexico. And second of all today I would be looking at someone with actual charisma that could possibly withstand the Trump onslaught. Who that is exactly I don't know, but I do know DeSantis ain't it! That's frankly been clear all along, and it's clearer now more than ever.

DeSantis actually reminds me of a Republican Beto O'Rourke: Hyped up by those who think his relative success in a "Sun Belt" state could translate to national success, except everyone forgot to check if he actually had any qualities that could be effective on the national stage. And furthermore precisely BECAUSE he was so hyped up so early, it gave his opponents time to bury him early. Even the likes of Nikki Haley are getting the knives out for DeSantis now and they are circling the wagons and killing him before he even has a chance.

This was all foreseeable in hindsight, and maybe even without it.

So what will the few remaining anti-Trump Republicans (who apparently fail to see the party is on the cusp of being renamed the Trump/MAGA Party with a Kool-Aid party in Trumptown if he loses) do now? Obviously the smart thing to do would be to suck it up, accept their party is gone, and vote for Biden. But we all know they're not smart. So what? Nominate another Gary Johnson? Come crawling back to the likes of Kasich or Hogan in the hopes of an independent run, far too late? Just not vote? Or suddenly stop being "anti-Trump" and vote for him? I think, as before with every cycle of grief, we'll see a mix of all these things among this group. I'm particularly watching out for OSR... Come to the light side, my friend. We have cookies!

[Landslide Lyndon]

I don't think anti-Trump Republicans ever liked DeSantis.
People like Rick Wilson, Bill Kristol, Stuart Stevens, etc., always disdained him and called him an uncharismatic spiteful hack who was as much of a threat to democracy as Trump himself.

[President Johnson]

They actually like most of Trump's policies, just not his persona and moral issues. DeSantis seems to be the same politically without the personal baggage.

[Del Tachi]

ITT:  some big copes from our #1 resident D hacktivist

1) Gillum was expected to win in 2018.  Both the Atlas hive and mainstream pundits had Gillum as a heavy favorite going into election night.  Any Monday-morning QB'ing making Gillum into a loser who was never going to win is a COPE.

2) There's no reason to think Kasich would have done better than Trump in 2016.  I think it more likely that Kasich would have outright lost to Hillary Clinton, given that he wouldn't have animated the "hidden" Trump vote that gave the GOP wins in PA, WI, MI, etc.

All I'm reminded of is what RINO Tom said a few days ago:  the notion of a "sane Republican" is a fake unicorn created by partisan Democrats so that they can constantly move the goalposts to paint every Republican as somehow worse than the last.  That dye has been cast against DeSantis for years now (but it has been turned up in the last few weeks, since y'all are now thinking you smell blood in the water LOL.)  At this rate, Trump is going to be more popular among Atlas posters than he is among Republican primary voters.  It's so obviously him that y'all want to run against...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

COVID was another Great Recession everything went automatic we really don't need mail but package delivery, and we don't read newspaper no more sit in cafe Laptop computers

Rs think everything is over and we can return back to normal we need more Section 8 vouchers there is not a single Section 8 vouchers in a major city, thats what's going with Rs

[TodayJunior]

Bc they thought he could be trump without being trump. How many times will they have to learn that 2016 was a complete fluke. Republicans DO NOT WIN elections on their own bc their ideas do not sell to the majority of the electorate (and especially not now in a post Covid post Dobbs world).

Only when Dems falter (which won’t occur) and in extreme circumstances like snow in Florida (once every 10 years or so) does this ever have a chance of occurring.

Be black-pilled my Republican friends, your world is collapsing! But hey don’t take my word for it! Charlie Kirk is also dropping black pills too!

https://churchleaders.com/news/450039-charlie-kirk-on-tucker-carlson-abortion-and-why-biden-will-be-tough-to-beat-in-2024.html

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Hardcore social conservatives aren't "anti-Trump" in the sense of the Lincoln Project or the "#NeverTrump" movement, but there is some frustration building with Trump for those voters.  I imagine that there are a handful of other groups like that too.  The type of people you're talking about are mostly Democrats now.  It's a completely different group that still considers themselves committed Republicans but would rather not nominate Trump again.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Desperation

[OSR stands with Israel]

1. Trump's policies were not actually that different from the vast majority of Republicans from 1980 anyway. Policy wise there was in fact many similarities between him and Romney so policy was not my issue with Trump.

2. Florida is actually doing well and the proof is the fact that its one of the fastest growing states and has moved up in many types of rankings over the years. Despite the hate many on here give, its doing well .

3. DeSantis if he ever got into power would actually do a good job in advancing conservative policies and also reverse the trend of institutions outside the courts being nakadly in favor of the left as well

4. It's obviously way to early to really make any definite statements about 2024 but I will say the number 1 thing that will factor in my vote is which Republican has the best chance to beat Trump and Biden.

If it's Mike Pence, id back Pence too lol

[TodayJunior]

1. Trump's policies were not actually that different from the vast majority of Republicans from 1980 anyway. Policy wise there was in fact many similarities between him and Romney so policy was not my issue with Trump.

2. Florida is actually doing well and the proof is the fact that its one of the fastest growing states and has moved up in many types of rankings over the years. Despite the hate many on here give, its doing well .

3. DeSantis if he ever got into power would actually do a good job in advancing conservative policies and also reverse the trend of institutions outside the courts being nakadly in favor of the left as well

4. It's obviously way to early to really make any definite statements about 2024 but I will say the number 1 thing that will factor in my vote is which Republican has the best chance to beat Trump and Biden.

If it's Mike Pence, id back Pence too lol

Hi there! Me again. How we doin?

Let me disabuse you of a few things here. Yes, the state is doing well on the whole, but that is despite DeSantis not because of him. We’ve always been a low tax haven, and a magnet for retirees from NY, NJ, New England, upper Midwest, etc. and most of these folks split down the middle. Covid is obviously what has moved this state from Tossup to strong-Lean R.

Here’s the thing though….the people who are doing well here are those who are multi-generational wealthy folks or people who were already wealthy and moved here. Net winners and losers if you will. Younger millennials and Gen Z are getting the short end of the stick on housing/rent and property insurance, being priced out of the market due to international interests, Blackrock, retirees from other states sucking up all the supply. So a lot of folks my age and younger are moving out. central Floridians like myself are getting a double whammy on taxes with all the Disney nonsense. Hopefully, Ron gets his teeth kicked in on this charade.

Furthermore, DeSantis is always trying to fix imaginary problems instead of the real ones like the parental rights bill. He masquerades and exploits fears of parents to get votes. But I digress. I could go on and on.

I assume by your avatar you’re a Republican from Oregon? If so, well I guess you can empathize a bit since we are in the dissent of our respective home states. I can respect folks who are willing to stay where they’ve made their home rather than up and flee politics they dislike and try to make a positive difference in their own respective places, though you certainly have the right to move. I swear if I hear the term “lefugeee” one more time so help me hannah I’ll eat my hat.


Not sure I understand #3….wishful thinking I’m sure. Governors and presidents are very different, 10th Amendment and all.

[Spectator]

I don’t think DeSantis has any true support from most NeverTrumpers. Most just view him as an opportunist that copy catted Trumpism into the governorship. People like Patrick Ruffini who are the real base of DeSantis support have always supported Trump in the general election, and probably would support Trump again in 2024 if he were the nominee. Their only issue with Trump is that they think he’ll blow the GOP another chance to win.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I don’t think DeSantis has any true support from most NeverTrumpers. Most just view him as an opportunist that copy catted Trumpism into the governorship. People like Patrick Ruffini who are the real base of DeSantis support have always supported Trump in the general election, and probably would support Trump again in 2024 if he were the nominee. Their only issue with Trump is that they think he’ll blow the GOP another chance to win.

This is false lol,

Romney has defended DeSantis on quite a bunch of stuff, Jeb Bush has basically all but endorsed Trump so Never Trumpers who have remained Republicans do like DeSantis and would vote for him over Trump and Biden

[Spectator]

I don’t think DeSantis has any true support from most NeverTrumpers. Most just view him as an opportunist that copy catted Trumpism into the governorship. People like Patrick Ruffini who are the real base of DeSantis support have always supported Trump in the general election, and probably would support Trump again in 2024 if he were the nominee. Their only issue with Trump is that they think he’ll blow the GOP another chance to win.

This is false lol,

Romney has defended DeSantis on quite a bunch of stuff, Jeb Bush has basically all but endorsed Trump so Never Trumpers who have remained Republicans do like DeSantis and would vote for him over Trump and Biden

I said “most”. Two anecdotes don’t dispute my generalization. Most Never Trumpers are not fans of DeSantis either.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I don’t think DeSantis has any true support from most NeverTrumpers. Most just view him as an opportunist that copy catted Trumpism into the governorship. People like Patrick Ruffini who are the real base of DeSantis support have always supported Trump in the general election, and probably would support Trump again in 2024 if he were the nominee. Their only issue with Trump is that they think he’ll blow the GOP another chance to win.

This is false lol,

Romney has defended DeSantis on quite a bunch of stuff, Jeb Bush has basically all but endorsed Trump so Never Trumpers who have remained Republicans do like DeSantis and would vote for him over Trump and Biden

I said “most”. Two anecdotes don’t dispute my generalization. Most Never Trumpers are not fans of DeSantis either.

Depends if they became Democrats not. The ones who became Democrats have not, but the ones who still vote GOP downballot will likely vote for him if hes the nominee in 2024.

[Pericles]

The Republican establishment and many Republican voters care about who is most likely to beat the Democrats, they do not have strong principles-at least those that would actually change their behaviour-for or against Trump and 'Trumpism'.

[The Mikado]

OP is really really misinterpreting the type of person who's behind DeSantis. It's not the "Never Trumpers" (almost all of whom have a candidate and who is named Joseph Robinette Biden II: just take a look at The Bulwark sometime and you'll see very very little enthusiasm for going back).

It's the so-called anti-anti Trumpers, the people who:

A. overwhelmingly supported Ted Cruz in 2016 primary (who was in fact the second place candidate to Trump!) as opposed to Jeb, Rubio, or Kasich, and mainly critiqued Trump for not being ideological enough or being a Johnny-Come-Lately

B. Whose big complaint with Trump has been that he hurts the party in various electoral ways, mainly that Trump's erratic moody personality meant that he never got around to doing half the things he was supposed to do as President.

Ron DeSantis was supposed to be their Super Cruz, a candidate who could plausibly run to Trump's right and say that he could succeed and deliver for the conservative movement. The problem is Ron DeSantis turns out to be Ted Cruz without the likeability, and that's almost impossible to write because Ted Cruz had no likeability to begin with. DeSantis comes across as a joyless rage-filled zealot who seems profoundly unpleasant to be around. Trump is, in his own unique way, a Happy Warrior. Donald Trump never ever ever seems happier than when he's taking it to a rival, especially one he seems to personally despise like Jeb Bush or Hillary Clinton.

I think a lot of people misread DeSantis as "Rubio 2016" when he should be read as "Cruz 2016," which is actually a way worse position in a lot of ways. Those of you who followed that primary will remember that when the race got down to Trump vs Cruz a lot of "establishment" figures came out and endorsed Trump, shocking many who thought that the race was primarily insider/outsider, because, well, they knew Ted Cruz personally and would rather take their chances with the weird orange dude than with Ted Cruz. Ron DeSantis is already showing signs of the same.

[TheTide]

The Republican establishment and many Republican voters care about who is most likely to beat the Democrats, they do not have strong principles-at least those that would actually change their behaviour-for or against Trump and 'Trumpism'.

Yes, like its equivalent parties in other Western countries, the Republicans are most concerned about obtaining office. Politics and ideology are secondary.

[Deep Dixieland Senator, Muad'dib (OSR MSR)]

If it's Mike Pence, id back Pence too lol

I knew you would say this.

[Skill and Chance]

OP is really really misinterpreting the type of person who's behind DeSantis. It's not the "Never Trumpers" (almost all of whom have a candidate and who is named Joseph Robinette Biden II: just take a look at The Bulwark sometime and you'll see very very little enthusiasm for going back).

It's the so-called anti-anti Trumpers, the people who:

A. overwhelmingly supported Ted Cruz in 2016 primary (who was in fact the second place candidate to Trump!) as opposed to Jeb, Rubio, or Kasich, and mainly critiqued Trump for not being ideological enough or being a Johnny-Come-Lately

B. Whose big complaint with Trump has been that he hurts the party in various electoral ways, mainly that Trump's erratic moody personality meant that he never got around to doing half the things he was supposed to do as President.

Ron DeSantis was supposed to be their Super Cruz, a candidate who could plausibly run to Trump's right and say that he could succeed and deliver for the conservative movement. The problem is Ron DeSantis turns out to be Ted Cruz without the likeability, and that's almost impossible to write because Ted Cruz had no likeability to begin with. DeSantis comes across as a joyless rage-filled zealot who seems profoundly unpleasant to be around. Trump is, in his own unique way, a Happy Warrior. Donald Trump never ever ever seems happier than when he's taking it to a rival, especially one he seems to personally despise like Jeb Bush or Hillary Clinton.

I think a lot of people misread DeSantis as "Rubio 2016" when he should be read as "Cruz 2016," which is actually a way worse position in a lot of ways. Those of you who followed that primary will remember that when the race got down to Trump vs Cruz a lot of "establishment" figures came out and endorsed Trump, shocking many who thought that the race was primarily insider/outsider, because, well, they knew Ted Cruz personally and would rather take their chances with the weird orange dude than with Ted Cruz. Ron DeSantis is already showing signs of the same.

This.  The DeSantis base is now primarily people who think Trump was too moderate and basically want an American Orban who will push the law to the absolute limit to punish left-leaning institutions and advance social conservatism.  Yes, he surged with libertarians when COVID was the top issue, but they aren't on board with what he's been up to since then.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.businessinsider.com/desantis-underwhelms-in-london-with-boring-speech-report-2023-4

Bernie predictions of a landslide

[Xing]

Because many of those who are “anti-Trump” not only don’t have any issues with his policies, they also don’t have any issues with his character. The main reason they don’t want Trump leading the party is because they see him as an electoral liability for Republicans.

[Inmate Trump]

I want leaders who I know won't try to sell out the nation or try to commit a coup to stay in power.

That's the only level now, for me.

[Vosem]

I think the idea that Florida is a state with a radically different political culture than the rest of the United States really doesn't hold up to scrutiny; it has, as I tire of saying, roughly the same demographics as the US as a whole, and the ways in which it is different don't even seem to favor the GOP so strongly (it is much more urban than the US, for instance, and less white, and less religious). There are some details that do, such as Hispanics being disproportionately Cuban and the state as a whole being older than the US, and I think the idea that Florida is evolving to be a very different place has some merit (while Florida is still less religious than the US as a whole, Florida has gotten much more religious over the course of the 2010s even as the US has gotten less so). That DeSantis has had lots of success there (including popularity with Democratic leaners; the bill letting him run for President had some Democratic crossover support in the legislature) seems obviously relevant to a national performance.

Mikado's post is sort of correct, but he acts like Cruz was demolished in 2016. In fact the primary between Trump and Cruz was the narrowest, and took the longest to decide in one direction or another, since 1976, and Cruz's support skewed disproportionately younger; it seems non-obvious to me that reholding the same primary with the same demographic breakdowns in 2024 wouldn't result in a Cruz victory (and I think it certainly would by 2032). Primaries with similar patterns on the congressional and gubernatorial levels usually result in victories for candidates similar to Cruz (...though this is a different way of saying that they tend to perform better with lower turnout.) In fact it seems moderately likely to me that a different primary schedule in 2016 would have been enough to swing the outcome to a Cruz victory. But Cruz's electoral record in Texas -- which isn't even really a swing state yet -- is unimpressive, while DeSantis's record in Florida seems much stronger. (But they do obviously come from similar generations and cultural backgrounds, and were elected to Congress at around the same time on around the same platform.

[Skill and Chance]

I think the idea that Florida is a state with a radically different political culture than the rest of the United States really doesn't hold up to scrutiny; it has, as I tire of saying, roughly the same demographics as the US as a whole, and the ways in which it is different don't even seem to favor the GOP so strongly (it is much more urban than the US, for instance, and less white, and less religious). There are some details that do, such as Hispanics being disproportionately Cuban and the state as a whole being older than the US, and I think the idea that Florida is evolving to be a very different place has some merit (while Florida is still less religious than the US as a whole, Florida has gotten much more religious over the course of the 2010s even as the US has gotten less so). That DeSantis has had lots of success there (including popularity with Democratic leaners; the bill letting him run for President had some Democratic crossover support in the legislature) seems obviously relevant to a national performance.

Mikado's post is sort of correct, but he acts like Cruz was demolished in 2016. In fact the primary between Trump and Cruz was the narrowest, and took the longest to decide in one direction or another, since 1976, and Cruz's support skewed disproportionately younger; it seems non-obvious to me that reholding the same primary with the same demographic breakdowns in 2024 wouldn't result in a Cruz victory (and I think it certainly would by 2032). Primaries with similar patterns on the congressional and gubernatorial levels usually result in victories for candidates similar to Cruz (...though this is a different way of saying that they tend to perform better with lower turnout.) In fact it seems moderately likely to me that a different primary schedule in 2016 would have been enough to swing the outcome to a Cruz victory. But Cruz's electoral record in Texas -- which isn't even really a swing state yet -- is unimpressive, while DeSantis's record in Florida seems much stronger. (But they do obviously come from similar generations and cultural backgrounds, and were elected to Congress at around the same time on around the same platform.

I would suggest the youth getting more secular (at least for the next generation or so) is an increasing impediment to Cruz-style candidates.

[Vosem]

I would suggest the youth getting more secular (at least for the next generation or so) is an increasing impediment to Cruz-style candidates.

I don't know that this is true, because Cruz-style means mixing very hardline fiscal conservatism with your sort of populist complaints-of-the-day (initially, before Trump entered the race, Cruz was actually running substantially on anti-immigration sentiment, which has since been memory-holed). Politicians like him are usually pretty socially conservative but they rarely emphasize that (the way that Huckabee or Santorum did). I can see social conservatism holding back candidates like this in general elections in the post-Dobbs period, although I think even the 2022 evidence on that point is mixed, but I think in GOP primaries there are lots of reasons to think Cruz/DeSantis-type people will get stronger over time.