What is more likely? Trump winning the popular vote or DeSantis winning the primary?
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  What is more likely? Trump winning the popular vote or DeSantis winning the primary?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: What is more likely to happen?
#1
Trump wins the popular vote		  
#2
DeSantis wins the primary		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 53

Author Topic: What is more likely? Trump winning the popular vote or DeSantis winning the primary?  (Read 552 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: April 29, 2023, 07:10:26 AM »
« edited: April 29, 2023, 07:16:09 AM by Tekken_Guy »
What is more likely to happen? Trump winning the popular vote in the general or DeSantis beating him in the primary?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #1 on: April 29, 2023, 07:12:51 AM »
I voted for Option 2. But it's close.
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The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ
laddicus finch
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« Reply #2 on: April 29, 2023, 07:50:43 AM »
My instinct was option 2, but I'd switch to option 1 if I could. Neither are particularly likely, but I could see Trump winning the PV if something goes horribly wrong in the rest of Biden's term, like a major recession. That's unlikely, but DeSantis winning the primary seems even more so.
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The Economy is Getting Worse
riverwalk3
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« Reply #3 on: April 29, 2023, 03:11:36 PM »
Option 1 is more than 50%, option 2 is less than 10%.
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #4 on: April 29, 2023, 03:16:00 PM »
Easily DeSantis winning the primary (and then trump running a third party).
No way in this universe does Trump win the general, let alone the overall NPV.
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TransfemmeGoreVidal
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« Reply #5 on: April 30, 2023, 01:49:44 AM »
Option 2 easily (though obviously neither are very likely), i'm kind of surprised it's this close tbh.
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Spectator
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« Reply #6 on: April 30, 2023, 03:01:29 AM »
Option 1. 1%>0%
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Inmate Trump
GWBFan
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« Reply #7 on: April 30, 2023, 08:50:34 AM »
There is just no way Trump can win the popular vote. It's impossible. He won't win it, there is no chance there.

DeSantis has very little chance of winning the GOP primary as things stand today, maybe something like 5-10%. That's a higher chance than Trump has of pulling off a popular vote victory in a general election.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #8 on: May 01, 2023, 10:50:34 AM »
DeSantis winning the primary since there's the chance Trump dies between now and then.
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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #9 on: May 01, 2023, 10:53:55 AM »
DeathSantis winning the primary. I can't imagine how Trump wins the popular vote.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #10 on: May 01, 2023, 03:21:38 PM »
Option 2. I am not sure Trump can win the popular vote under any circumstances. At best, he wins the EC and loses the popular vote as he did in 2016.
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Vosem
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« Reply #11 on: May 01, 2023, 03:38:36 PM »
My instinct is option 2 in the fullness of a campaign, but option 1 is the outcome polls are presently showing.

I think the odds of DeSantis in particular winning the GOP primary is maybe around 30% (some room remains for a non-DeSantis anti-Trump figure, I think), and the odds of Trump winning the popular vote given that he is nominated are also roughly at 30% (so maybe, like, roughly 20% odds that is the outcome of the election). Neither option seems particularly exotic or anything; Trump leads now, and in 2022 a very overtly Trumpy GOP campaign (arguably one with more problems than Trump himself had) won the national popular vote by 3 points.
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leecannon
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« Reply #12 on: May 01, 2023, 06:23:43 PM »
I see no realistic scenario that trump wins the popular vote barring a national catastrophe

Any polling over a year out is not worth considering
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