If the GOP wins the following states, what are their odds of winning the Electoral College?

[BG-NY]

My guesses (only looking at potential tipping points):

AZ - 45%
GA - 55%
MI - 90%
NV - 45%
PA - 60%
WI - 20%

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

My guesses (only looking at potential tipping points):

AZ - 45%
GA - 55%
MI - 90%
NV - 45%
PA - 60%
WI - 20%

This implies that the GOP has a less than 20% chance of winning the election.

[OriAr]

Trump:
AZ - 90%
GA - 90%
MI - 100%
NV - 75%
PA - 80%
WI - 70%

If Trump flips ANY state, he probably flips enough in one go to win it all.

DeSantis:
AZ - 45%
GA - 55%
MI - 100%
NV - 50%
PA - 95%
WI - 80%

DeSantis in my view has the Sunbelt nearly on lock but his problem would be getting the state to push him over 270, if he wins one of WI/PA he probably wins it all.

Also, if Michigan goes red then so do PA and WI and we have a GOP president again.

[David Hume]

Trump:
AZ - 90%
GA - 90%
MI - 100%
NV - 75%
PA - 80%
WI - 70%

If Trump flips ANY state, he probably flips enough in one go to win it all.

DeSantis:
AZ - 45%
GA - 55%
MI - 100%
NV - 50%
PA - 95%
WI - 80%

DeSantis in my view has the Sunbelt nearly on lock but his problem would be getting the state to push him over 270, if he wins one of WI/PA he probably wins it all.

Also, if Michigan goes red then so do PA and WI and we have a GOP president again.

Trump wins MI is not 100% guaranteed winning. He might still lose NC, GA, AZ, NV.

DeSantis wins GA is not 55%. In my opinion GA is the most likely Trump-Biden state that he wins.

[emailking]

Are you saying for each of those states, you're telling me they win that state, and the winners of the other 49 states are unknown?

[BG-NY]

Are you saying for each of those states, you're telling me they win that state, and the winners of the other 49 states are unknown?

Yes

[John Dule]

My guesses (only looking at potential tipping points):

AZ - 45%
GA - 55%
MI - 90%
NV - 45%
PA - 60%
WI - 20%

I basically agree with this, but I think you're shortchanging WI and PA. If Trump wins PA I'd give him at least a 75% of winning the election just because it would imply he carried GA, AZ, and NV in a uniform swing. Same goes for Wisconsin; I'd put it at 65-70% after the recent state supreme court election.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

AZ-75% (suggests rebound with suburbanites)
GA-60% (similar to AZ but not as meaningful as Georgia has a stronger R base)
NV-50%
WI-50%
PA-85% (suggests a strong showing across the rustbelt)
MI-95+%