Siena - Mississippi Gov - Reeves +11
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  Siena - Mississippi Gov - Reeves +11
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Author Topic: Siena - Mississippi Gov - Reeves +11  (Read 1072 times)
AncestralDemocrat.
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« on: April 28, 2023, 06:53:05 AM »

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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #1 on: April 28, 2023, 07:17:47 AM »

Partisanship always kicks in. A shame, too, because Reeves might literally be the worst Governor in the country, even with all the competition he has for that dishonor.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #2 on: April 28, 2023, 08:36:35 AM »

Safe R

Has never been anything else.
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Vosem
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« Reply #3 on: April 28, 2023, 09:36:36 AM »
« Edited: April 28, 2023, 09:46:33 AM by Vosem »

This would honestly still be a pretty good performance for Democrats, although maybe not once you adjust for Reeves being quite unpopular (maybe the most unpopular Republican Governor in the nation -- note that Morning Consult always exaggerates approvals on both sides, so if they have him breaking even that's really bad) and Presley being a strong candidate. In general, the Mississippi Democrats have had a fascinating run of serious campaigns over the past half-decade (they contested MS-Sen 2018, MS-Gov 2019, MS-Sen 2020, and now this race), but it's never been enough to actually win. Also, in spite of Reeves, the GOP had a legitimately strong year here in 2022.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #4 on: April 28, 2023, 09:39:11 AM »

This would honestly still be a pretty good performance for Democrats, although maybe not once you adjust for Reeves being quite unpopular (maybe the least unpopular Republican Governor in the nation -- note that Morning Consult always exaggerates approvals on both sides, so if they have him breaking even that's really bad) and Presley being a strong candidate. In general, the Mississippi Democrats have had a fascinating run of serious campaigns over the past half-decade (they contested MS-Sen 2018, MS-Gov 2019, MS-Sen 2020, and now this race), but it's never been enough to actually win. Also, in spite of Reeves, the GOP had a legitimately strong year here in 2022.

A 11 pt. margin would indeed not be all too bad. That said, the 38% is the more accurate figure of this poll imho. Perhaps barely cracking 40%, while Reevers finishes in 55-58% territory.
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Vosem
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« Reply #5 on: April 28, 2023, 09:52:56 AM »

This would honestly still be a pretty good performance for Democrats, although maybe not once you adjust for Reeves being quite unpopular (maybe the least unpopular Republican Governor in the nation -- note that Morning Consult always exaggerates approvals on both sides, so if they have him breaking even that's really bad) and Presley being a strong candidate. In general, the Mississippi Democrats have had a fascinating run of serious campaigns over the past half-decade (they contested MS-Sen 2018, MS-Gov 2019, MS-Sen 2020, and now this race), but it's never been enough to actually win. Also, in spite of Reeves, the GOP had a legitimately strong year here in 2022.

A 11 pt. margin would indeed not be all too bad. That said, the 38% is the more accurate figure of this poll imho. Perhaps barely cracking 40%, while Reevers finishes in 55-58% territory.

38% would actually be really bad; the last Democratic presidential candidate to do that poorly was Mondale, and the only Democratic gubernatorial candidate to do that poorly was a sacrificial lamb in 2015 who didn't try. (A sacrificial lamb in 2011 who was barely serious still hit that.)

My basic metric here is that Biden lost MS by 17 points and doing better than that is probably good. (In 2022, with both parties contesting every seat, the generic MS House vote was R+28, which is astonishingly good -- but of course did not actually cause any gains.) Obama 2012 is the recent presidential high-mark and that was a loss by 11. (The recent senatorial high-mark is that Esty lost by 8 in 2018. The recent gubernatorial high-mark is Hood losing by 5 in 2019, but that's like the best D performance of the past generation.)
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6 on: April 28, 2023, 09:56:10 AM »

New Poll: Mississippi Governor by Siena Research Institute on 2023-04-20

Summary: D: 38%, R: 49%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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2016
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« Reply #7 on: April 28, 2023, 05:25:47 PM »

This would honestly still be a pretty good performance for Democrats, although maybe not once you adjust for Reeves being quite unpopular (maybe the least unpopular Republican Governor in the nation -- note that Morning Consult always exaggerates approvals on both sides, so if they have him breaking even that's really bad) and Presley being a strong candidate. In general, the Mississippi Democrats have had a fascinating run of serious campaigns over the past half-decade (they contested MS-Sen 2018, MS-Gov 2019, MS-Sen 2020, and now this race), but it's never been enough to actually win. Also, in spite of Reeves, the GOP had a legitimately strong year here in 2022.

A 11 pt. margin would indeed not be all too bad. That said, the 38% is the more accurate figure of this poll imho. Perhaps barely cracking 40%, while Reevers finishes in 55-58% territory.
Olowakandi told us all that Presler would win. That was obviously a massive pipe dream.

Former Mississippi Attorney General Jim Hood who was basically an institution in MS and had the highest Name Recognition in the State as a Democrat for over a decade couldn't beat Reeves during a Trump Presidency. And if Hood can't beat Reeves there is no chance a backbencher like Presler could beat him.

For Democrats to win Statewide in MS Republicans would need to nominate a "Roy Moore type Republican" and that won't happen anytime soon.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: April 29, 2023, 09:45:56 AM »

It's important to note are Ds back the Dogs in LA and MS but it's not over yet we still got 6 months to go
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