State Bellwether Counties

[electionsguy259]

Here's a list I put together of state bellwether counties for presidential elections in 50 states. By "state bellwether", I mean counties that have always or almost always aligned with their state's popular vote results for presidential elections. Feel free to correct me if I have any errors.

Alabama
- Tuscaloosa County
- Autauga County
- Dale County
- Coffee County
- Covington County
- Pike County
- Monroe County

Alaska
- Aleutians East Borough (last deviation: 1960 for Kennedy)
- Bristol Bay Borough (last deviation: 1960 for Kennedy)
- Fairbanks North Star Borough (last deviation: 1960 for Kennedy)
- Kodiak Island Borough (last deviation: 1960 for Kennedy)

Arizona
- Maricopa County (last deviation: 1996 for Dole)

Arkansas
- Miller County
- Lonoke County
- Cleburne County
- Franklin County

California
- Imperial County (last deviation: 1948 for Dewey)
- Monterey County (last deviation: 1948 for Dewey)
- San Benito County (last deviation: 1948 for Dewey)
- Santa Barbara County (last deviation: 1948 for Dewey)

Colorado
- Larimer County (last deviation: 1948 for Dewey)

Connecticut
- Middlesex County (last deviation: 1944 for Dewey)

Delaware
- New Castle County (last deviation: 1948 for Dewey)

Florida
- Jefferson County (last deviation: 2004 for Kerry)
- St. Lucie County (last deviation: 2004 for Kerry)
- Monroe County (last deviation: 2004 for Kerry)

Georgia
- No bellwether counties in the Peach State, since no Georgia county voted Republican in 2016 and Democratic in 2020

Hawaii
- Hawaii County (last deviation: 1960 for Nixon)
- Kalawao County
- Kauai County (last deviation: 1960 for Nixon)
- Maui County (last deviation: 1960 for Nixon)

Idaho
- Boise County
- Caribou County

Illinois
- Peoria County (last deviation: 1960 for Nixon)
- Champaign County (last deviation: 1960 for Nixon)

Indiana
- Madison County (last deviation: 1996 for Clinton)
- Spencer County (last deviation: 1996 for Clinton)
- Starke County (last deviation: 1996 for Clinton)
- Vanderburgh County (last deviation: 1996 for Clinton)

Iowa
- Cedar County (last deviation: 1948 for Dewey)
- Louisa County (last deviation: 1948 for Dewey)

Kansas
- Bourbon County
- Lyon County
- Ottawa County
- Saline County

Kentucky
- Lawrence County (last deviation: 1952 for Eisenhower)

Louisiana
- Catahoula Parish (last deviation: 1960 for Nixon)
- Concordia Parish (last deviation: 1960 for Unpledged electors)
- Jackson Parish (last deviation: 1960 for Nixon)
- Winn Parish (last deviation: 1960 for Nixon)

Maine
- Sagadahoc County (last deviation: 1944 for Roosevelt)

Maryland
- Baltimore County (last deviation: 1980 for Reagan)
- Howard County (last deviation: 1980 for Reagan)

Massachusetts
- Essex County (last deviation: 1928 for Hoover)

Michigan
- Saginaw County (last deviation: 1988 for Dukakis)

Minnesota
- Hennepin County (last deviation: 1960 for Nixon)

Mississippi
- Carroll County
- Covington County
- Wayne County
- Greene County
- Perry County
- Webster County

Missouri
- Lincoln County (last deviation: 1952 for Stevenson)

Montana
- Sanders County (last deviation: 1924 for La Follette)

Nebraska
- Fillmore County
- Clay County
- Logan County

Nevada
- Washoe County (last deviation: 1996 for Dole)

New Hampshire
- Cheshire County (last deviation: 2000 for Gore)
- Grafton County (last deviation: 2000 for Gore)
- Merrimack County (last deviation: 2000 for Gore)
- Strafford County (last deviation: 2000 for Gore)

New Jersey
- Union County (last deviation: 1960 for Nixon)

New Mexico
- Los Alamos County (last deviation: 2000 for Bush)
- Sandoval County (last deviation: 2000 for Bush)

New York
- Schenectady County (last deviation: 1976 for Ford)

North Carolina
- Jackson County (last deviation: 1996 for Clinton)
- Hyde County (last deviation: 1996 for Clinton)
- Caswell County (last deviation: 1996 for Clinton)

North Dakota
- Barnes County
(possibly Stutsman County as well, since North Dakota had a strange Electoral Vote arrangement in 1892).

Oklahoma
- Custer County

Oregon
- Benton County (last deviation: 1944 for Dewey)
- Hood River County (last deviation: 1944 for Dewey)

Pennsylvania
- Northampton County (last deviation: 1948 for Truman)

Rhode Island
- Bristol County (last deviation: 1912 for Taft)

South Carolina
- Newberry County (last deviation: 1952 for Eisenhower)

South Dakota
- Clark County
- Jackson County
- Jones County

Tennessee
- Lawrence County (last deviation: 1924 for Coolidge)

Texas
- Parker County
- Aransas County
- Brown County
- Shackelford County
- Young County
- Lampasas County

Utah
- Morgan County
- Wayne County

Vermont
- Bennington County
- Rutland County
- Washington County

Virginia
- Loudoun County (last deviation: 1928 for Smith)

Washington
- King County

West Virginia
- Raleigh County (last deviation: 1912 for Roosevelt)
- Tucker County (last deviation: 1912 for Roosevelt)

Wisconsin
- Sauk County (last deviation: 1988 for Bush)

Wyoming
- Platte County

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

There was one in Georgia who voted in 2020 for the state winner for the first time since 1860.

[Yu748Girl83]

There was one in Georgia who voted in 2020 for the state winner for the first time since 1860.

There were two counties in Georgia, Laurens County and Monroe County, that had voted for the state winner from 1860-2016. In 2020, Biden won Georgia, while they both voted for Trump, ending their long state bellwether record.

[bagelman]

Wood County OH?

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

There was one in Georgia who voted in 2020 for the state winner for the first time since 1860.

There were two counties in Georgia, Laurens County and Monroe County, that had voted for the state winner from 1860-2016. In 2020, Biden won Georgia, while they both voted for Trump, ending their long state bellwether record.

I mixed it up

[electionsguy259]

Wood County OH?

Whoops, forgot about Ohio, though their bellwether is not Wood County

Ohio
- Ottawa County (last deviation: 1940 for Wilkie)

[ListMan38]

Lafayette County, Mississippi

Ole Miss has always voted with the MS Statewide winner for as long as MS County data records show

[electionsguy259]

Lafayette County, Mississippi

Ole Miss has always voted with the MS Statewide winner for as long as MS County data records show

I did not count Lafayette County since they voted for Kennedy in 1960, while the state of Mississippi voted for "Unpledged electors".

[electionsguy259]

North Dakota
- Stutsman County
- Barnes County

Just realized that Barnes County would be a more reliable statewide bellwether than Stutsman County for North Dakota, since it voted for James B. Weaver in 1892, who won North Dakota's popular vote in that election. (I know that the electoral votes were split).

[electionsguy259]

Texas
- Parker County
- Aransas County
- Brown County
- Shackelford County
- Jeff Davis County
- Young County
- Jackson County
- Lampasas County

Removed Jeff Davis County from the list, since it voted Republican in 1888, 1892, 1896, and 1900- all elections in which Texas voted Democratic. Removed Jackson County as well since it voted for Grant in 1872.

[electionsguy259]

Washington
- San Juan County (last deviation: 1968 for Nixon)

Whoops, got Washington's wrong. It actually appears to be King County (Seattle), which has always voted for the statewide winner since Washington became a state in 1889. Thus, I removed San Juan County off the list.

[Mr. Smith]

Delaware voted for Dewey though.

[DS0816]

Keeping in mind the topic of this thread, the following are some counties which are bellwethers to their respective state.…

Unbroken Streak:

TEXAS
• Bell County (since 1960—which means, through 2020, it has carried for every statewide winner, for U.S. President, in all of the last 60 years and 16 consecutive election cycles)

Not Perfect But Strong (For Long):

TEXAS
• Bell County (all elections, except 1952 and 1956, since at least 1912)
• Collin County (all elections, except 1952, 1956, 1968 and 1976, since at least 1912)
• Denton County (all elections, with exceptions of 1960, 1968, and 1976, since at least 1912)

PENNSYLVANIA
• Erie County (all elections, except 1988, since 1948 )

[electionsguy259]

Keeping in mind the topic of this thread, the following are some counties which are bellwethers to their respective state.…

Unbroken Streak:

TEXAS
• Bell County (since 1960—which means, through 2020, it has carried for every statewide winner, for U.S. President, in all of the last 60 years and 16 consecutive election cycles)

Not Perfect But Strong (For Long):

TEXAS
• Bell County (all elections, except 1952 and 1956, since at least 1912)
• Collin County (all elections, except 1952, 1956, 1968 and 1976, since at least 1912)
• Denton County (all elections, with exceptions of 1960, 1968, and 1976, since at least 1912)

PENNSYLVANIA
• Erie County (all elections, except 1988, since 1948 )

Those are correct, but I only put the ones with the longest streaks. Counties with shorter streaks did not make it on the list.

[electionsguy259]

Delaware voted for Dewey though.

Yes, I noted that in the OP.

[DS0816]

Keeping in mind the topic of this thread, the following are some counties which are bellwethers to their respective state.…

Unbroken Streak:

TEXAS
• Bell County (since 1960—which means, through 2020, it has carried for every statewide winner, for U.S. President, in all of the last 60 years and 16 consecutive election cycles)

Not Perfect But Strong (For Long):

TEXAS
• Bell County (all elections, except 1952 and 1956, since at least 1912)
• Collin County (all elections, except 1952, 1956, 1968 and 1976, since at least 1912)
• Denton County (all elections, with exceptions of 1960, 1968, and 1976, since at least 1912)

PENNSYLVANIA
• Erie County (all elections, except 1988, since 1948 )

Those are correct, but I only put the ones with the longest streaks. Counties with shorter streaks did not make it on the list.

Your opening post (effective 11.19.2023 @ 12:05 a.m. ET):

Here's a list I put together of state bellwether counties for presidential elections in 50 states. By "state bellwether", I mean counties that have always or almost always aligned with their state's popular vote results for presidential elections. Feel free to correct me if I have any errors.

Yes—counties which are bellwethers to the state.

I am not here to correct you.

I wanted to add to what has been mentioned.

Here is one more:

KANSAS
• Sedgwick County (has voted with the statewide winner, no exceptions, since 1944—which means, all of the last 20 election cycles of 1944 to 2020)

[Minnesota Mike]

I have not looked at other states but if Hennepin is Minnesota's bellwether county the  term has no meaning. I don't care how long a "winning" streak they have, if a county votes 40 points one way or the other from the state results it is not a bellwether. The definition of a bellwether county as I have always understood it is a county that usually matches the statewide margin. It's not perfect but Nicollet County probably is the best fit to that definition in Minnesota.

[patzer]

I have not looked at other states but if Hennepin is Minnesota's bellwether county the  term has no meaning. I don't care how long a "winning" streak they have, if a county votes 40 points one way or the other from the state results it is not a bellwether. The definition of a bellwether county as I have always understood it is a county that usually matches the statewide margin. It's not perfect but Nicollet County probably is the best fit to that definition in Minnesota.

Yep this- the two Georgia counties mentioned are also quite meaningless as they are both very heavily Republican.

For calculation of a county's bellweather status I would think the best method would be a formula that's weighted towards more recent elections.

One tentative attempt at a formula add up the total D overperformance for a county vs its statewide margin in all of the years where it overperformed for the Dems, total R overperformance in all the years it overperformed for Republicans, and then calculate a "deviation amount" of D overperformance + R overperformance + (the difference between the first two numbers*2). Use the last eight presidential elections with the most recent four having 2x weighting.

So, for Nicollet...

2020: R+3.96 *2 = R+7.92
2016: R+4.57 *2 = R+9.14
2012: D+0.14 *2 = D+0.28
2008: D+0.28 *2 = D+0.56
2004: R+2.87
2000: R+3.58
1996: R+3.77
1992: R+5.18

total R overperf = 7.92+9.14+2.87+3.58+3.77+5.18 = 32.46
total D overperf = 0.28+0.56 = 0.84
difference = 32.46-0.84 = 31.62

Deviation = 32.46+0.84+(31.62*2) = 96.54

Whereas Hennepin would be

2020: D+36.09 *2 = D+72.18
2016: D+33.42 *2 = D+66.84
2012: D+19.35 *2 = D+38.70
2008: D+18.37 *2 = D+36.74
2004: D+16.42
2000: D+11.87
1996: D+5.07
1992: D+5.26

total R overperf = 0
total D overperf = 253.08
difference = 253.08-0 = 253.08

Deviation = 0+253.08+(253.08*2) = 759.24

Which pretty conclusively demonstrates Nicollet being a better bellwether than Hennepin, with a far lower deviation score.

Anyone able to find a county (whether in MN or anywhere else in the US) that's better than Nicollet by this metric?

[DS0816]

I have not looked at other states but if Hennepin is Minnesota's bellwether county the  term has no meaning. I don't care how long a "winning" streak they have, if a county votes 40 points one way or the other from the state results it is not a bellwether. The definition of a bellwether county as I have always understood it is a county that usually matches the statewide margin. It's not perfect but Nicollet County probably is the best fit to that definition in Minnesota.

They both matter.

A bellwether is, first and foremost, one which carries for a winner [winning party] over a long period of time.

The margins being in proximity with the result…that bolsters an argument for citing a bellwether as such.

Sometimes, the margin can be not in proximity in a given election cycle. For example: In 1988, Nevada carried for Republican winner George Bush by +21.06 when he won nationwide by +7.72 percentage points. Nowhere near to looking like a bellwether, as your comment describes, but the state carried for the winner. And when Bill Clinton won a Democratic pickup of the presidency in 1992, and unseated Bush, among his Democratic pickups was Nevada. The state has voted the same as New Mexico, with exception of 2000 (separate winners for U.S. President and U.S. Popular Vote), since that state joined the union and first voted in 1912. They carried for all winners through 1972 and resumed in the 1980s and 1990s. They realigned to the Democrats with Barack Obama’s Democratic pickup of the presidency in 2008.

Minnesota joined the union and first voted in 1860. The elections in which Hennepin County did not carry for the statewide winner, for U.S. President, were in 1916 and 1960. According to Wikipedia, it states that in 1912 the former Republican U.S. president and Progressive Party nominee Teddy Roosevelt, who carried Minnesota, won Hennepin County. That is, according to the below image’s list; but, the website’s map says it carried for Woodrow Wilson.

I would argue that Hennepin County can carry for a Democrat while the state of Minnesota ends up in the Republican winner’s column for U.S. President—which I anticipate is coming (given the state votes the same as New Hampshire and they are in proximity to the Rust Belt Bellwether Trio)—because the county’s margins are nowadays way outside statewide results. Hennepin County, in 2020, voted like my home state Michigan’s Wayne County.

[ottermax]

It looks like none of the Texas counties will survive for much longer if Democrats ever win the state (which seems relatively likely in the next 2 decades)

[electionsguy259]

It looks like none of the Texas counties will survive for much longer if Democrats ever win the state (which seems relatively likely in the next 2 decades)

Totally agree with this.



For the Texans in this forum, is there anything that the Texas bellwether counties have in common, possibly culturally or economically? They seem to be all in the northern-central region of Texas (inside the circle).