NEW: Trump commits to no federal role on abortion

[DaleCooper]

He'll agree to a federal abortion ban once the primary starts.

[wbrocks67]

Besides whether or not we believe him, can we just take a moment to point out that abortion as a state by state issue is probably long term the maximum pain position for the GOP?

Imagine the people of Pennsylvania knowing that if they ever elect a Republican governor again, abortion will be illegal in that state. Think about what that ends up doing to PA politics. And that's just the nation's premiere swing state, but there are others.

True, and very under discussed.

[Skill and Chance]

Besides whether or not we believe him, can we just take a moment to point out that abortion as a state by state issue is probably long term the maximum pain position for the GOP?

Imagine the people of Pennsylvania knowing that if they ever elect a Republican governor again, abortion will be illegal in that state. Think about what that ends up doing to PA politics. And that's just the nation's premiere swing state, but there are others.

I don't think this is correct.  It's actually the most likely long term policy win position for the right, assuming they can get past the initial backlash years without SCOTUS flipping or Roe getting codified by a Dem trifecta.  Think of Obamacare.  It won R's a bunch of elections in the short run, but it's still the law 13 years later.   If "leave it to the states" sticks for multiple presidential terms without the prospect of changing it in either direction through SCOTUS, what happens is you get a bunch of pro-choice R's running for governor/legislature in the NE, West Coast, and parts of the Midwest and a bunch of pro-life D's running in the South and Mormon states.  Long run, this leads to like 10 Sununus and JBEs winning in a typical year.   

[oldtimer]

Besides whether or not we believe him, can we just take a moment to point out that abortion as a state by state issue is probably long term the maximum pain position for the GOP?

Imagine the people of Pennsylvania knowing that if they ever elect a Republican governor again, abortion will be illegal in that state. Think about what that ends up doing to PA politics. And that's just the nation's premiere swing state, but there are others.

I don't think this is correct.  It's actually the most likely long term policy win position for the right, assuming they can get past the initial backlash years without SCOTUS flipping or Roe getting codified by a Dem trifecta.  Think of Obamacare.  It won R's a bunch of elections in the short run, but it's still the law 13 years later.   If "leave it to the states" sticks for multiple presidential terms without the prospect of changing it in either direction through SCOTUS, what happens is you get a bunch of pro-choice R's running for governor/legislature in the NE, West Coast, and parts of the Midwest and a bunch of pro-life D's running in the South and Mormon states.  Long run, this leads to like 10 Sununus and JBEs winning in a typical year.   

People like to have Sununus and JBE's as their governors of Blue and Red states respectively, so I can see than happening.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

This may prevent him from a Landslide loss, but I remain convinced Trump is a weak candidate and Republicans are better off with someone else. That someone else however, is not DeSantis, after that six week ban. That is just political suicide right there

[Skill and Chance]

This may prevent him from a Landslide loss, but I remain convinced Trump is a weak candidate and Republicans are better off with someone else. That someone else however, is not DeSantis, after that six week ban. That is just political suicide right there

Who else is going to run?  The major alternatives are all governors or senators from 6 week or stricter abortion ban states.  Well, there's Sununu, but his position is basically Codify Roe and 1. that can't get through the primary and 2. with that position, he could actually lose Texas on low turnout in the GE.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

This may prevent him from a Landslide loss, but I remain convinced Trump is a weak candidate and Republicans are better off with someone else. That someone else however, is not DeSantis, after that six week ban. That is just political suicide right there

Who else is going to run?  The major alternatives are all governors or senators from 6 week or stricter abortion ban states.  Well, there's Sununu, but his position is basically Codify Roe and 1. that can't get through the primary and 2. with that position, he could actually lose Texas on low turnout in the GE.

Youngkin maybe? I don't know if they were able to pass a strict abortion law or not
Anyway, Haley also took a states rights position and could be strong if convictions roll out against Trump

[Sestak]

who, exactly, do you think most Americans attribute the recent wave of abortion bans to?

[indietraveler]

While this is a smart play for Trump in the primary to distinguish himself on an issue, no one is going to believe him on this in a GE. He's on record saying otherwise in the past and democrats would be dumb to not air ads 24/7 on what he has said previously on the issue.

[Sol]

Besides whether or not we believe him, can we just take a moment to point out that abortion as a state by state issue is probably long term the maximum pain position for the GOP?

Imagine the people of Pennsylvania knowing that if they ever elect a Republican governor again, abortion will be illegal in that state. Think about what that ends up doing to PA politics. And that's just the nation's premiere swing state, but there are others.

I don't think this is correct.  It's actually the most likely long term policy win position for the right, assuming they can get past the initial backlash years without SCOTUS flipping or Roe getting codified by a Dem trifecta.  Think of Obamacare.  It won R's a bunch of elections in the short run, but it's still the law 13 years later.   If "leave it to the states" sticks for multiple presidential terms without the prospect of changing it in either direction through SCOTUS, what happens is you get a bunch of pro-choice R's running for governor/legislature in the NE, West Coast, and parts of the Midwest and a bunch of pro-life D's running in the South and Mormon states.  Long run, this leads to like 10 Sununus and JBEs winning in a typical year.   

See, the thing about Obamacare is that the actual impact on most people's lives is neutral to positive, and negative impacts are largely pretty indirect.

Abortion bans have a super-obvious negative effect on the lives of a lot of people, in a way that's extremely obvious. This issue isn't going away any time soon.

[TodayJunior]

well...there goes the South and...basically everywhere else. This will end up pleasing nobody.

"Why", you ask "is this the case and why is TJ putting together a seemingly hackish map?", where Trump COULD lose safe red states like IN, KS, SC, MO? Because there is a sizeable chunk of voters whose ONE ISSUE is this one and literally nothing else. If you really want to decrease turnout among your base AND keep the Dems energized bc they already HATE YOU for the Dobbs fallout ….This is what you do. Donny the Conny and Fe Fi Fo Fat Ronny blowin Monnnnnnaaaaaaaaaaayyyyy

I would actually respect the gop more if they stuck to the national abortion ban bc ideologically it would be consistent when they say murder is murder and then go on the offensive that Dems have the more insane position. Instead? Dead silence, and legislatures are actively subverting these initiatives from being on the ballot bc they know it’s a huge liability. But the base also won’t let them get away with that either bc they’re seen as soft so a large chunk of them just won’t vote at the top…yes even with trump at the top. Most evangelicals never liked trump to begin with, which is why he picked pence in the first place, who is a true believer there.

Oh well...Incoming DemSlide. This would be about a Biden +16%, or a quadrupling of his 2020 margin in the NPV. Trump does everything BIGLY, including losing a rematch BIGLY. We’re overdue for a 10.5 political earthquake anyway. Might as well go out with a bang.