Who wins Duval County, Florida?
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  Who wins Duval County, Florida?		 « previous next »
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Question: ?
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Biden (regardless of GOP nominee)		  
#2
Biden (if Trump is GOP nominee), DeSantis (if he's GOP nominee)		  
#3
Biden (if DeSantis is GOP nominee), Trump (if he's GOP nominee)		  
#4
The GOP nominee no matter who it is		  
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Total Voters: 46

Author Topic: Who wins Duval County, Florida?  (Read 657 times)
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« on: April 20, 2023, 11:16:48 AM »
« edited: April 20, 2023, 12:38:01 PM by Feel the rhythm in my blood »
Trump won Duval County while losing Jacksonville in 2016. Biden won Duval in 2020. Who wins it in 2024?
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Person Man
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« Reply #1 on: April 20, 2023, 12:19:21 PM »
How much of Duval isn't in Jacksonville?
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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #2 on: April 20, 2023, 12:27:47 PM »
« Edited: April 20, 2023, 12:35:14 PM by Feel the rhythm in my blood »
Quote from: Person Man on April 20, 2023, 12:19:21 PM
How much of Duval isn't in Jacksonville?
A small percent. Hillary Clinton actually lost Duval County while winning Jacksonville in 2016.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: April 20, 2023, 12:56:50 PM »
FL isn't really a Battleground states as the Approval show TX is more winnable with def Cruz than Scott, Barber is targeting certain states and FL and IA aren't the ones
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #4 on: April 20, 2023, 05:23:01 PM »
The GOP nominee.
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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #5 on: May 01, 2023, 10:51:48 AM »
Duval has trended Democratic. Northern Florida doesn't have as large of a Cuban-American population. What might help Trump win Duval County in 2024, despite only winning in in 2016 (while losing Jacksonville)?
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Vosem
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« Reply #6 on: May 01, 2023, 11:32:16 AM »
The Democrat, unless the GOP nominee is winning in a landslide; it's probably not even part of DeSantis's minimal victory coalition. Jacksonville has trends similar to Atlanta, where much of the migration it's getting is African-American; it's trended Democratic at every 21st-century election and actually sort of rapidly. Yes, DeSantis did win it comfortably at the 2022 gubernatorial election, but relative to the state of Florida he actually didn't do all that well there (and in the context of a giant statewide landslide, he did kind of awfully):

Duval County/FL (POTUS or Gov)/Duval County lean:
2000: R+17/D+0/R+17
2002: R+23/R+13/R+10
2004: R+16/R+5/R+11
2006: R+20/R+7/R+13
2008: R+2/D+3/R+5
2010: R+6/R+1/R+5
2012: R+3/D+1/R+4
2014: R+13/R+1/R+12
2016: R+2/R+1/R+1
2018: D+5/R+1/D+6
2020: D+3/R+3/D+6
2022: R+11/R+19/D+8

The 2022 gubernatorial election was the furthest left Duval's been, relative to the state, in the 21st century. It outright swung left between 2014 and 2022, even though the state of Florida swung right by 18 points. It totally remains winnable for the GOP -- DeSantis obviously still won it by double-digits, and at the local level it's still GOP-controlled. But my guess is that if Democrats lose here they've already lost nationally.
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Devils30
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« Reply #7 on: May 01, 2023, 12:28:04 PM »
Quote from: Vosem on May 01, 2023, 11:32:16 AM
The Democrat, unless the GOP nominee is winning in a landslide; it's probably not even part of DeSantis's minimal victory coalition. Jacksonville has trends similar to Atlanta, where much of the migration it's getting is African-American; it's trended Democratic at every 21st-century election and actually sort of rapidly. Yes, DeSantis did win it comfortably at the 2022 gubernatorial election, but relative to the state of Florida he actually didn't do all that well there (and in the context of a giant statewide landslide, he did kind of awfully):

Duval County/FL (POTUS or Gov)/Duval County lean:
2000: R+17/D+0/R+17
2002: R+23/R+13/R+10
2004: R+16/R+5/R+11
2006: R+20/R+7/R+13
2008: R+2/D+3/R+5
2010: R+6/R+1/R+5
2012: R+3/D+1/R+4
2014: R+13/R+1/R+12
2016: R+2/R+1/R+1
2018: D+5/R+1/D+6
2020: D+3/R+3/D+6
2022: R+11/R+19/D+8

The 2022 gubernatorial election was the furthest left Duval's been, relative to the state, in the 21st century. It outright swung left between 2014 and 2022, even though the state of Florida swung right by 18 points. It totally remains winnable for the GOP -- DeSantis obviously still won it by double-digits, and at the local level it's still GOP-controlled. But my guess is that if Democrats lose here they've already lost nationally.

Yeah, I think some people forget places like Duval, Seminole are still trending Dem even the state as a whole is not.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #8 on: May 01, 2023, 12:50:32 PM »
Option #2
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
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« Reply #9 on: May 01, 2023, 01:05:50 PM »
Quote from: Jimmy Newtron on May 01, 2023, 10:51:48 AM
Duval has trended Democratic. Northern Florida doesn't have as large of a Cuban-American population. What might help Trump win Duval County in 2024, despite only winning in in 2016 (while losing Jacksonville)?
Yeah, but it does have a large non-Hispanic white redneck population.
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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #10 on: May 01, 2023, 02:02:01 PM »
Quote from: ηєω ƒяσηтιєя on May 01, 2023, 01:05:50 PM
Quote from: Jimmy Newtron on May 01, 2023, 10:51:48 AM
Duval has trended Democratic. Northern Florida doesn't have as large of a Cuban-American population. What might help Trump win Duval County in 2024, despite only winning in in 2016 (while losing Jacksonville)?
Yeah, but it does have a large non-Hispanic white redneck population.
That was already a very steady Republican bloc. Cuban-Americans significantly swung to the right in 2020.
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Lincoln Project
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« Reply #11 on: May 01, 2023, 02:13:18 PM »
Trump wins Duval, Hillsborough, and Miami-Dade.
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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #12 on: May 01, 2023, 02:24:07 PM »
Doesn’t Miami-Dade have many Obama-Trump voters, unlike Duval?
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #13 on: May 01, 2023, 06:30:25 PM »
Quote from: Jimmy Newtron on May 01, 2023, 02:24:07 PM
Doesn’t Miami-Dade have many Obama-Trump voters, unlike Duval?

Not only Obama-Trump, but Hillary-Trump voters.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #14 on: May 01, 2023, 06:56:56 PM »
Option 2. Haley would win it too
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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #15 on: May 01, 2023, 07:19:04 PM »
Quote from: DaleCooper on May 01, 2023, 06:30:25 PM
Quote from: Jimmy Newtron on May 01, 2023, 02:24:07 PM
Doesn’t Miami-Dade have many Obama-Trump voters, unlike Duval?

Not only Obama-Trump, but Hillary-Trump voters.
Duval doesn't have many Obama-Hillary-Trump voters.
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