When will we see the next landslide election (10.0% or greater popular vote in either direction)?

[WalterWhite]

For the purposes of this, "landslide" refers to a situation in which one party wins the popular vote by 10.0% of more.

Since 1982, only one presidential election has been a landslide (1984), and only two House elections have been landslides (1982 and 2008). Before this, landslides were fairly common. However, politics has become significantly more polarized to the point where even a 10% margin of victory in the popular vote is considered impressive.

When will the next landslide presidential election occur? When will the next landslide House election occur?

[LabourJersey]

I'm not sure. I don't see it happening in the forseeable future because polarization is reinforced by cable news and by social media, two very significant facets of our media life that I don't see going away anytime soon.

[DS0816]

For the purposes of this, "landslide" refers to a situation in which one party wins the popular vote by 10.0% of more.

Since 1982, only one presidential election has been a landslide (1984), and only two House elections have been landslides (1982 and 2008). Before this, landslides were fairly common. However, politics has become significantly more polarized to the point where even a 10% margin of victory in the popular vote is considered impressive.

When will the next landslide presidential election occur? When will the next landslide House election occur?

Based on what you described … it may not happen again until after everyone with a membership to this site—and I will include Dave Leip—has died.

[Skill and Chance]

Probably a strong reelection for a Midwest D?

The D national floor seems structurally higher so I doubt an R could do this anytime soon.

[Agonized-Statism]

Impossible to know, but I'm gonna take a shot in the dark and say conditions will be favorable in the 2030s.

Things will be changing very fast by the 2030s. The decade will see the first Gen Alpha voters, and Boomers will be between 65 at the youngest in 2030 and 95 at the oldest in 2040- many of them reaching the average life expectancy. According to the 2021 annual report from the Social Security Board of Trustees, Social Security's cash reserves will be fully depleted by 2034. According to the IPCC, we're on track to hit six climate tipping points during the decade. Geopolitics could experience major shifts from a vacuum in Russia if the War in Ukraine has been sustained to the point of collapse. That's not even touching the economic restructuring that would result from quantum computing and other emerging technologies. My point is that candidates will have to run on pretty radical platforms to address these things and that elections then could be a lot more decisive for the party that adapts best.

I'm the first to say that a minority party in a two-party system can and most likely will change its platform fast to remain competitive, but the electorate and its demands may change so fast that said party suffers some really big defeats first. Less so for the popular vote, more so in the electoral college.

[Skill and Chance]

Impossible to know, but I'm gonna take a shot in the dark and say conditions will be favorable in the 2030s.

Things will be changing very fast by the 2030s. The decade will see the first Gen Alpha voters, and Boomers will be between 65 at the youngest in 2030 and 95 at the oldest in 2040- many of them reaching the average life expectancy. According to the 2021 annual report from the Social Security Board of Trustees, Social Security's cash reserves will be fully depleted by 2034. According to the IPCC, we're on track to hit six climate tipping points during the decade. Geopolitics could experience major shifts from a vacuum in Russia if the War in Ukraine has been sustained to the point of collapse. That's not even touching the economic restructuring that would result from quantum computing and other emerging technologies. My point is that candidates will have to run on pretty radical platforms to address these things and that elections then could be a lot more decisive for the party that adapts best.

I'm the first to say that a minority party in a two-party system can and most likely will change its platform fast to remain competitive, but the electorate and its demands may change so fast that said party suffers some really big defeats first. Less so for the popular vote, more so in the electoral college.

Are you envisioning something like Dems losing the PV by 2, 5, and then 3 but the Rep gets 350+ in the EC each time so it feels like 1980-88?

[Xing]

At some point (it’ll be way overdue), something has to give, and a candidate who actually wants to fundamentally change the status quo (instead of just acting like they do a la Trump) will garner a high enough level of support to win decisively in a realigning election. I don’t see that happening until around the 2040s, though.