1990 midterms under Prez Dukakis

[Sir Mohamed]

If Michael Dukakis kept his polling lead from summer, doesn't committ the blunders he did and HW is further tainted by Iran Contra, how do you think the 1990 midterms go after Dukakis wins the presidency? Does the Gingrich revolution happen 4 years earlier or does that just occur in 1994 during a hypothetical 2nd term? Although there are valid arguments to claim Dukakis would have been a 1-termer since the economy in 1992 wasn't doing so well.

[MATTROSE94]

The Republicans likely win around 235 House seats (with Bob Michel as speaker) and pick up Senate seats in Hawaii (Pat Saiki), Iowa (Tom Tauke), Louisiana (Ben Bagert), Michigan (Bill Schuette), New Jersey (Christine Todd Whitman), and are able to convince Richard Shelby and Howell Heflin to switch parties. Republicans also hold onto their other Senate seats up in 1990 as well.

[dw93]

I think 1990 under Dukakis would more resemble 1978 than 1994 as I doubt Dukakis would generate the same personal backlash that the Clintons did. Given those numbers the Democrats would still hold hold onto the House, assuming the down ticket races in 1988 remain the same as the GOP would've needed a net gain of 52 seats to retake the House. The Democrats could potentially lose the Senate though as the GOP only needed to gain 6 seats for a 51 seat majority, but I still have doubts they'd be able to manage a net gain of 6. A Dukakis loss in 1992 could see the GOP retake Congress though.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

I think 1990 under Dukakis would more resemble 1978 than 1994 as I doubt Dukakis would generate the same personal backlash that the Clintons did.

True, but GOP underperformance in 1978 was largely due to Nixon/Watergate still being recent, and Democrats got a last-minute boon from the Camp David Peace Accords.