How did Johnson county KS fall so quickly?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

This was a Romney+17 county and strongly Republican. Even during Brownback's terrible 2014 performance he still managed to carry it. 2016 rolls around, and Jerry Moran carries it by double digits in his massive landslide. On the Presidential level, Trump managed to hold on by a few points although it trending blue massively compared to 2012. In 2018 Laura Kelly carries it by 16 defeating Kris Kobach. Biden wins it by 8 in 2020. But this is where the bottom falls off for Rs. In 2022, the Abortion Amendment voted NO by 38%!!! Laura Kelly increases her win margin there despite doing much worse state wide and wins it by over 20%. Senator Jerry Moran who was once adored by suburbanites finally loses it narrowly. Even the insurance comissioner who won by 27 points only carried it by 2%. In 2024 it will probably vote for Biden by around 15+ points based off trends.

Johnson county is the bluest Trump 2016 county as of 2023 and it is quite impactful as the most populated county in Kansas.

[DS0816]

In the 2020 United States presidential election, Johnson County, Kansas—with its county seat Olathe—flipped and carried for the Democrats for the first time since 1916.

There are patterns, in recent U.S. presidential election cycles, in which a state county, here and there, has flipped to carry for a given political party which had not won that given county in decades.

It is going to continue.

My theory: Democrats are winning over some of the prior coalition from the Republican Party. Republicans are winning over some of the prior coalition from the Democratic Party. So, this is having to do with realignment.

Source:

[Pericles]

I believe it's got one of the highest shares of college graduates of any county, so it would be hit hard by the leftward shift of that demographic (and of course it is a very white county).

[Mr. Smith]

wHaT hAPpEnED tO ElliOT CoUnTy, kY?