Sudan clashes

[Silent Hunter]

Looks like something serious is happening in Khartoum

[Meclazine for Israel]

Very tribal. Very intense. They will run red hot for 24-48 hours then go quiet for 14 days.

Action a' Plenty

https://www.instagram.com/reel/CrENtA4N5An/

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Not impossible Omar al-Bashir might return.

[Nhoj]

Seems its an attempt to seize power for themselves by the RSF [who developed out of the Janjaweed] after their joint Junta with the army broke down in recent weeks.   Pretty sure Pro-democracy forces are still sidelined.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/amalhamdanelex/status/1647194364634972162?s=20

[CumbrianLefty]

Not impossible Omar al-Bashir might return.

Oh how jolly good.

Not.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

NSG summary with links from 4-5 hours ago

Sudan’s Armed Forces and a paramilitary group known as the Rapid Support Forces. The two groups have had months of tensions that hav even rapidly escalating, with the army’s declaration that the RSF’s actions are “illegal” seeming to be the final straw. Both groups accuse the other of having started the fighting.

Violence erupted last night in the country, with residents of Khartoum waking up to gunfire. Videos show both sides firing at enemy fighters, jets soaring through the skies, armored vehicles throughout the streets, and civilians taking cover. According the RSF, they have control over the presidential palace, the state TV station, the army chief’s residence and Khartoum’s main airport, Khartoum International. The RSF also claims to have taken Egyptian soldiers in Northern Sudan captive, with a video purporting to show it. The fighting has left at least 3 civilians dead and dozens wounded, led to condemnation from the UN, and left US embassy staff huddling inside the building.

The Northeast African nation has been in a precarious situation ever since a popular uprising in 2019 ousted Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir. Civilian rule was quickly ended when the Sudanese military and RSF took power in a 2021 coup. They promised to return the country to civilian rule (which since has not happened) but protests erupted almost immediately, with the RSF being accused of killing hundreds and abusing many more during the demonstrations.

Sudan also faces the problem of ethnic tensions. Many non-Arabs feel as if Afro-Arabs are treated better than other groups, and groups such as the Hausa, Fulani & Bargo (often collectively referred to as “Hausawa” or “Fallata”) are often discriminated against, as they’re descendants of West Africans who came to Sudan to help fight the British, as well as Makkah-bound pilgrims who settled in Sudan on their way to or from the Hijaz. Recently, Hausas were attacked by members of the Berti ethnic group who believed the Hausa were gaining too much autonomy, sparking protests and riots from Hausas across Sudan.

Sources:
https://www.npr.org/2023/04/15/1170249456/gunfire-and-explosions-erupt-across-sudans-capital-as-military-rivals-clash
https://www.cnn.com/urlfrica/live-news/sudan-army-paramilitary-palace-news-04-15-23
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-62175714
https://www.aljazeera.net/news/2023/4/15/%D8%A7%D8%B4%D8%AA%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%83%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%82%D9%84%D9%82-%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D9%8A-%D9%88%D8%AF%D8%B9%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AA
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/4/15/sudan-unrest-live-news-explosions-shooting-rock-khartoum

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Not impossible Omar al-Bashir might return.

Oh how jolly good.

Not.

The groups commonly called "pro-democratic" here conducted themselves incredibly poorly here, making decisions that made them look very amateurish and out of touch with the actual electorate.

The average Sudanese voter is a very religious-minded, tradition-supporting resident of a village along the Nile. The "pro-democratic" camp took steps like ending Quran instruction. For a group that must have had some actual personal attachment to the idea of democracy, they were doing a great job making themselves look atrocious on moral issues, harming their chances at prevailing in an actual election! They alienated a lot of people right off the bat. And things had gotten worse because of how incompetent they were in governance more generally, all at a time when people are suffering even more than they were in the later 2010s under Bashir.

What was commonly called the pro-democratic camp was filled with people who had little to no gravitas and little idea for how to actually appeal to the majority of the country. The military seems to be heavily Muslim Brotherhood-influenced as well and my instinct is that they are much better positioned to garner the support of the population in highly religious Sudan than a large, inexperienced, in-above-their-head camp with a fair number of athiests* in it.

Bashir is an awful person, but he's conducted himself incredibly well and his immense charisma is a huge asset. Looking like a leader is 90% of the job of actually keeping that position or taking it, and Bashir has managed to make his tenure in power even look good because of rank incompetence from his successors. I don't personally think Bashir himself is behind this coup, but people who support him could very well be.
*=or at the very least effectively quasi-non-Muslims in the eyes of the majority of the population

[NewYorkExpress]

Not impossible Omar al-Bashir might return.

I can't imagine it'll be Omar al-Bashir, given he disgraced Sudan in the eyes of the world, and he's awaiting trial in The Hague, but I imagine this does end with a general in the military in charge.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Not impossible Omar al-Bashir might return.

I can't imagine it'll be Omar al-Bashir, given he disgraced Sudan in the eyes of the world, and he's awaiting trial in The Hague, but I imagine this does end with a general in the military in charge.

The most relevant outside-of-Sudan consideration is Saudi Arabia. Muhammad bin Salman has boatloads of money invested in Sudan and Sudan is a country under Saudi influence.
There does not presently seem to be any power players nearby with both a strong will and a strong ability to override the desire of KSA, if it puts its thumb on the scale in any direction.
Maybe the international community could go wholesale sanctions a la Russia, but it would be questionable if that could be feasibly done while the Ukraine war is still going on.

[Meclazine for Israel]

The most relevant outside-of-Sudan consideration is Saudi Arabia. Muhammad bin Salman has boatloads of money invested in Sudan and Sudan is a country under Saudi influence.

I didn't realise this until I worked in Africa.

The black countries in West Africa are heavily controlled by Arabs. Without calling the Lebanese and Saudi's corrupt, once an African country is beholden to their money, it's almost impossible for the country to break free. Libya were guilty of this as well with Gaddafi. He would control the oil in Africa to great personal effect.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

The most relevant outside-of-Sudan consideration is Saudi Arabia. Muhammad bin Salman has boatloads of money invested in Sudan and Sudan is a country under Saudi influence.

I didn't realise this until I worked in Africa.

The black countries in West Africa are heavily controlled by Arabs. Without calling the Lebanese and Saudi's corrupt, once an African country is beholden to their money, it's almost impossible for the country to break free. Libya were guilty of this as well with Gaddafi. He would control the oil in Africa to great personal effect.

It's always interesting to hear about us Anglos working in far-flung biomes in potentially shady industries. When did you work in Africa, and in what area? Did it have to do with mineral or fuel extraction?

[Antonio the Sixth]

So uh, do we have any news if the coup succeeded or failed?

[Logical]

So uh, do we have any news if the coup succeeded or failed?

They're still fighting across Sudan. There are reports that the RSF (Janjaweed) managed to capture the presidential palace.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/BlackSky_Inc/status/1647652943162925056?s=20

[Logical]

The butcher of Darfur claims that he is fighting for democracy against radical islamists. https://twitter.com/GeneralDagllo/status/1647887773011959809

[Antonio the Sixth]

The butcher of Darfur claims that he is fighting for democracy against radical islamists. https://twitter.com/GeneralDagllo/status/1647887773011959809

Are those the bad guys or the even-worse guys? It's hard to keep track honestly.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The butcher of Darfur claims that he is fighting for democracy against radical islamists. https://twitter.com/GeneralDagllo/status/1647887773011959809

Are those the bad guys or the even-worse guys? It's hard to keep track honestly.

RSF have a lot of former Janjaweed militiamen and have received Wagner training, for all the good it did them. Probably worse, but the Sudanese army may surprise its people yet.

[Pericles]

Hopefully this is a quick victory for either side, the last thing that Sudan and its neighbours need is another civil war.

[CumbrianLefty]

And to think there was actually some cautious optimism about this benighted land not so long ago.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/16/africa/sudan-military-clashes-explained-intl/index.html
https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/19/africa/sudan-fighting-hospitals-evacuation-wednesday-intl-hnk/index.html

This could be bad especially as the "Rapid Support Forces" were formed mostly from janjaweed militias that carried out the Darfur genocide and their leader is a notorious war criminal. Them seizing control could be catastrophic.

[Upper Canada Tory]

It's disappointing to see that North Africa is devolving back into the authoritarianism of the past. In Sudan in particular, the world probably should have probably intervened to destroy Omar al-Bashir's forces a long time ago.

[Antonio the Sixth]

f**king hell

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It sounds like this started as a botched coup attempt, the RSF (then nominally part of the military) tried to seize key military bases and ammo and weapons depots in order take indisputed control over the military and thus government. They failed but seized some key areas...including the Khartoum airport.

If they succeeded Sudan could've ended up under unilateral control of this guy which is a truly horrifying prospect: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohamed_Hamdan_Dagalo

[NOVA Green]

Surprised nobody has yet mentioned the Wagner Group and the expansion of Russian intervention and destabilization throughout many countries throughout Northern and Western Africa.