Toronto Mayoral By Election

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

That said, this time is a little different because it's an open seat and there's really no obvious successor to John Tory, so everyone thinks they have a shot. I think Bailao, Chow, Hunter, Matlow and Saunders can be considered the "tier one" candidates who have an actual shot. Bradford, Furey and Perruzza could put in a serious run, but won't win. Caesar-Chavannes, Climenhaga, D'Angelo, Davis, Mammoliti, and Sky are notable in some vague way, but I wouldn't take them seriously.

Most observers would bump Bradford from 2nd to 1st tier.  He's always had a vibe of a potential "John Tory anointed successor" about him.

I haven't been following the Toronto mayoral race too closely as of yet, but the candidate I find the most interesting at the moment is Mark Saunders. I'll wait for policy platforms to be released though.

Conservatives certainly seem to be rallying around Saunders, or they almost certainly will, because he's the only conservative-aligned candidate with a serious shot. As a former police chief he's uniquely positioned to run on crime as the main issue, which tends to be a winning issue for the right. Now, his time as police chief was controversial, but mostly with people who wouldn't vote for him anyway.

That said, he does need to consolidate the right and count on a split left to have a shot, and while the latter is almost guaranteed, the former is complicated by Toronto Sun columnist Anthony Furey. He's also running, but whereas Saunders is more of a "Ford Tory", Furey is more of a "Poilievre Tory", if that makes sense. Furey doesn't have a realistic shot, but he does have enough of a profile and following that he might split the vote.

I think Furey's one of those candidates who seems more of a factor through the wonkish filter of political Twitter than he'd be in actuality.

And let's remember that it's more complicated than a Saunders-vs-a-split-left race--just because Saunders is a candidate of the right doesn't make him the candidate of the John Tory big tent; and you can be sure that Bailao and Bradford in particular will make (and *are* making) strong bids for *that* vote.  That is, *they're* more likely to be injurious to Saunders than Furey is...

Saunders seems like he will be the candidate of the more right-leaning half of John Tory voters and most Rob Ford/Doug Ford voters. If you base your info on the 2014 mayoral election, this would be roughly 50-55% of the Toronto electorate, give or take (Doug Ford voters in that election made up 33.73% of the electorate, John Tory voters made up 40.28% of the electorate and if you take one half of that, presumably the more right-leaning half, it would be 20.14% of Toronto voters, adding up to 53.87%).

Based on my completely unscientific analysis, this means Saunders would do well in Northern Etobicoke, in North York but moreso further to the west of the area, particularly in wards 8 and 9, and Scarborough, especially further north.

I know you're not saying that Saunders will actually get 54% of the vote, that's just the pond he can fish out of. That said, I'd be careful reading into the Ford Nation vote too much. Many of those voters were loyal to Rob Ford, and to a lesser extent Doug Ford, more than any ideological association. Other right-wing politicians have tried very hard to tap into the Ford Nation vote with little success, because many of the most loyal Ford supporters weren't actually right-wing in a general sense.

[Upper Canada Tory]

That said, this time is a little different because it's an open seat and there's really no obvious successor to John Tory, so everyone thinks they have a shot. I think Bailao, Chow, Hunter, Matlow and Saunders can be considered the "tier one" candidates who have an actual shot. Bradford, Furey and Perruzza could put in a serious run, but won't win. Caesar-Chavannes, Climenhaga, D'Angelo, Davis, Mammoliti, and Sky are notable in some vague way, but I wouldn't take them seriously.

Most observers would bump Bradford from 2nd to 1st tier.  He's always had a vibe of a potential "John Tory anointed successor" about him.

I haven't been following the Toronto mayoral race too closely as of yet, but the candidate I find the most interesting at the moment is Mark Saunders. I'll wait for policy platforms to be released though.

Conservatives certainly seem to be rallying around Saunders, or they almost certainly will, because he's the only conservative-aligned candidate with a serious shot. As a former police chief he's uniquely positioned to run on crime as the main issue, which tends to be a winning issue for the right. Now, his time as police chief was controversial, but mostly with people who wouldn't vote for him anyway.

That said, he does need to consolidate the right and count on a split left to have a shot, and while the latter is almost guaranteed, the former is complicated by Toronto Sun columnist Anthony Furey. He's also running, but whereas Saunders is more of a "Ford Tory", Furey is more of a "Poilievre Tory", if that makes sense. Furey doesn't have a realistic shot, but he does have enough of a profile and following that he might split the vote.

I think Furey's one of those candidates who seems more of a factor through the wonkish filter of political Twitter than he'd be in actuality.

And let's remember that it's more complicated than a Saunders-vs-a-split-left race--just because Saunders is a candidate of the right doesn't make him the candidate of the John Tory big tent; and you can be sure that Bailao and Bradford in particular will make (and *are* making) strong bids for *that* vote.  That is, *they're* more likely to be injurious to Saunders than Furey is...

Saunders seems like he will be the candidate of the more right-leaning half of John Tory voters and most Rob Ford/Doug Ford voters. If you base your info on the 2014 mayoral election, this would be roughly 50-55% of the Toronto electorate, give or take (Doug Ford voters in that election made up 33.73% of the electorate, John Tory voters made up 40.28% of the electorate and if you take one half of that, presumably the more right-leaning half, it would be 20.14% of Toronto voters, adding up to 53.87%).

Based on my completely unscientific analysis, this means Saunders would do well in Northern Etobicoke, in North York but moreso further to the west of the area, particularly in wards 8 and 9, and Scarborough, especially further north.

I know you're not saying that Saunders will actually get 54% of the vote, that's just the pond he can fish out of. That said, I'd be careful reading into the Ford Nation vote too much. Many of those voters were loyal to Rob Ford, and to a lesser extent Doug Ford, more than any ideological association. Other right-wing politicians have tried very hard to tap into the Ford Nation vote with little success, because many of the most loyal Ford supporters weren't actually right-wing in a general sense.

Yeah, I should have clarified. He won't get 54% of the vote but that's his potential voters, the pond he will fish out of.

[adma]

Yeah I wouldn't read into Bailao adding Kouvalis to her campaign team too much. Brad Bradford, another left-leaning councillor, is being advised by Kory Teneycke, who among other things was a staffer for Harper and was the brains behind Doug Ford's 2018 campaign. I don't think either of them are turning a new leaf and becoming Tories, it's more that when you have a competitive nonpartisan election it helps to have strategists who can figure out a strategy to appeal to voters who normally might not vote for you.

But one could also rightly claim that neither are "left-leaning" in the same way that David Miller was (and Miller had an assist from Tory operatives such as John Laschinger).

[adma]

Saunders seems like he will be the candidate of the more right-leaning half of John Tory voters and most Rob Ford/Doug Ford voters. If you base your info on the 2014 mayoral election, this would be roughly 50-55% of the Toronto electorate, give or take (Doug Ford voters in that election made up 33.73% of the electorate, John Tory voters made up 40.28% of the electorate and if you take one half of that, presumably the more right-leaning half, it would be 20.14% of Toronto voters, adding up to 53.87%).

Based on my completely unscientific analysis, this means Saunders would do well in Northern Etobicoke, in North York but moreso further to the west of the area, particularly in wards 8 and 9, and Scarborough, especially further north.

I know you're not saying that Saunders will actually get 54% of the vote, that's just the pond he can fish out of. That said, I'd be careful reading into the Ford Nation vote too much. Many of those voters were loyal to Rob Ford, and to a lesser extent Doug Ford, more than any ideological association. Other right-wing politicians have tried very hard to tap into the Ford Nation vote with little success, because many of the most loyal Ford supporters weren't actually right-wing in a general sense.

Yeah, I should have clarified. He won't get 54% of the vote but that's his potential voters, the pond he will fish out of.

And when it comes to that particular N Etobicoke/North York electorate, this is where somebody like Perruzza might be worth monitoring as a potential vote-stealing sleeper factor.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Yeah I wouldn't read into Bailao adding Kouvalis to her campaign team too much. Brad Bradford, another left-leaning councillor, is being advised by Kory Teneycke, who among other things was a staffer for Harper and was the brains behind Doug Ford's 2018 campaign. I don't think either of them are turning a new leaf and becoming Tories, it's more that when you have a competitive nonpartisan election it helps to have strategists who can figure out a strategy to appeal to voters who normally might not vote for you.

But one could also rightly claim that neither are "left-leaning" in the same way that David Miller was (and Miller had an assist from Tory operatives such as John Laschinger).

Yeah but I'm using left/right in very broad strokes as it applies to municipal politics. Left = more emphasis on things like more social housing, harm-reduction approach to addiction, more skeptical of police, "urban" infrastructure like bike lanes and streetcars, more open to tax increases, etc. Right = more emphasis on private development, treatment-based approach to addiction, pro-police, "suburban" infrastructure like roads and subways, very against tax increases, etc.

Obviously there's a matter of how far you go to either end, or what you co-opt from the other side. For example, I think any nominal candidate of the "left" has to tack a little more conservative on crime/policing to build a wide coalition in the current climate, and Saunders has to tack a little more left on things like building more subsidized housing.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Saunders seems like he will be the candidate of the more right-leaning half of John Tory voters and most Rob Ford/Doug Ford voters. If you base your info on the 2014 mayoral election, this would be roughly 50-55% of the Toronto electorate, give or take (Doug Ford voters in that election made up 33.73% of the electorate, John Tory voters made up 40.28% of the electorate and if you take one half of that, presumably the more right-leaning half, it would be 20.14% of Toronto voters, adding up to 53.87%).

Based on my completely unscientific analysis, this means Saunders would do well in Northern Etobicoke, in North York but moreso further to the west of the area, particularly in wards 8 and 9, and Scarborough, especially further north.

I know you're not saying that Saunders will actually get 54% of the vote, that's just the pond he can fish out of. That said, I'd be careful reading into the Ford Nation vote too much. Many of those voters were loyal to Rob Ford, and to a lesser extent Doug Ford, more than any ideological association. Other right-wing politicians have tried very hard to tap into the Ford Nation vote with little success, because many of the most loyal Ford supporters weren't actually right-wing in a general sense.

Yeah, I should have clarified. He won't get 54% of the vote but that's his potential voters, the pond he will fish out of.

And when it comes to that particular N Etobicoke/North York electorate, this is where somebody like Perruzza might be worth monitoring as a potential vote-stealing sleeper factor.

Oh yeah. You really can't put voters in this part of the City on a left/right spectrum, at least when it comes to municipal elections. In 2014, Doug Ford ran as the most right-wing candidate for mayor, lost big to John Tory in the parts of the City with the most partisan Conservatives, but cleaned up in the parts of the City that gave Trudeau his best performances just a year later.

[Poirot]

Mainstreet has done a poll of 746 Toronto residents.

https://toronto.citynews.ca/2023/04/15/poll-josh-matlow-ana-bailao-toronto-mayor-candidates-mark-saunders-olivia-chow/

of decided and leaning voters:

Matlow 18.1 %
Bailao 16.8 %
Chow 16.2 %
Saunders 12.6 %

[adma]

Oh yeah. You really can't put voters in this part of the City on a left/right spectrum, at least when it comes to municipal elections. In 2014, Doug Ford ran as the most right-wing candidate for mayor, lost big to John Tory in the parts of the City with the most partisan Conservatives, but cleaned up in the parts of the City that gave Trudeau his best performances just a year later.

There's parallels btw/Doug Ford's support base and that of Eric Adams in the 2021 NY Dem mayoral primary.

[King of Kensington]

Oh yeah. You really can't put voters in this part of the City on a left/right spectrum, at least when it comes to municipal elections. In 2014, Doug Ford ran as the most right-wing candidate for mayor, lost big to John Tory in the parts of the City with the most partisan Conservatives, but cleaned up in the parts of the City that gave Trudeau his best performances just a year later.

Yup, lots of "Ford Liberals" in NW Toronto and Scarborough.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Oh yeah. You really can't put voters in this part of the City on a left/right spectrum, at least when it comes to municipal elections. In 2014, Doug Ford ran as the most right-wing candidate for mayor, lost big to John Tory in the parts of the City with the most partisan Conservatives, but cleaned up in the parts of the City that gave Trudeau his best performances just a year later.

There's parallels btw/Doug Ford's support base and that of Eric Adams in the 2021 NY Dem mayoral primary.

I can see it.

[adma]

Oh yeah. You really can't put voters in this part of the City on a left/right spectrum, at least when it comes to municipal elections. In 2014, Doug Ford ran as the most right-wing candidate for mayor, lost big to John Tory in the parts of the City with the most partisan Conservatives, but cleaned up in the parts of the City that gave Trudeau his best performances just a year later.

There's parallels btw/Doug Ford's support base and that of Eric Adams in the 2021 NY Dem mayoral primary.

I can see it.

And obviously, Mark Saunders is trying to hit a "law & order POC" note that's similar to that of Adams.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I must admit, I hadn't actually seen anything from Brad Bradford, just assumed that he was just going for the "vaguely progressive councillor from the Old City" lane which is competitive and not necessarily a winning strategy in Toronto mayoral elections. To be fair, I'm not actually from Toronto. So I went through his twitter for a bit (no platform yet) and he actually seems to be tacking right, which would be a terrible strategy running in Beaches--East York, but smart if you're running for mayor and want to tap into Ford Nation. No platform yet, but his announcement video suggests he's trying to tap into that vote. One might even say he's even taking a few notes from Poilievre's playbook.

And yeah, Bradford's messaging focuses very heavily on crime and public safety, and the only candidate he's attacked so far is Mark Saunders, in a way that's clearly trying to compete for the suburban conservative vote. He put out an attack video on Saunders and a post that, once again, could easily be something Poilievre would put out against Trudeau.

So it's probably not that surprising that he tapped Kory Teneycke as a campaign advisor. If you're not familiar, Teneycke ran the PCPO's 2018 campaign, so he's a good guy to have at your side if you're trying to win over suburban conservatives.

[adma]

\
So it's probably not that surprising that he tapped Kory Teneycke as a campaign advisor. If you're not familiar, Teneycke ran the PCPO's 2018 campaign, so he's a good guy to have at your side if you're trying to win over suburban conservatives.

We might be talking about a chicken-and-egg situation here, not unlike Kouvalis's possible role re Ana Bailao's OSC-move gambit.  (But even w/o that, Bradford was always more "fauxgressive")

[Hatman 🍁]

Olivia Chow is in- she signed up to run this morning.

Looks like there will be 6 main candidates (from left wing to right wing):

Olivia Chow, former NDP MP
Josh Matlow, city councillor
Mitzie Hunter, Liberal MPP
Ana Bailao, city councillor
Brad Bradford, city councillor
Mark Saunders, former chief of police

Matlow and Bradford have been more centrist in the past but have tacked leftward/rightward respectively in this campaign.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Olivia Chow is in- she signed up to run this morning.

Looks like there will be 6 main candidates (from left wing to right wing):

Olivia Chow, former NDP MP
Josh Matlow, city councillor
Mitzie Hunter, Liberal MPP
Ana Bilao, city councillor
Brad Bradford, city councillor
Mark Saunders, former chief of police

Matlow and Bradford have been more centrist in the past but have tacked leftward/rightward respectively in this campaign.

Olivia Chow is well-known, but I get the feeling that she might be a paper tiger in this race, particularly if the left-wing vote decides to coalesce around someone more "electable"

[Hatman 🍁]

Olivia Chow is in- she signed up to run this morning.

Looks like there will be 6 main candidates (from left wing to right wing):

Olivia Chow, former NDP MP
Josh Matlow, city councillor
Mitzie Hunter, Liberal MPP
Ana Bilao, city councillor
Brad Bradford, city councillor
Mark Saunders, former chief of police

Matlow and Bradford have been more centrist in the past but have tacked leftward/rightward respectively in this campaign.

Olivia Chow is well-known, but I get the feeling that she might be a paper tiger in this race, particularly if the left-wing vote decides to coalesce around someone more "electable"

It's possible, but is Matlow all that electable? I heard he's absolutely loathed in the suburbs.

[Hash]

Brad Bradford's proposed solution to any problem seems to be 'hire more cops', including but not limited to, traffic jams:

https://twitter.com/BradMBradford/status/1643948127076884480

[Hatman 🍁]

Toronto drivers do need more policing actually, especially in intersections.

[King of Kensington]

It's possible, but is Matlow all that electable? I heard he's absolutely loathed in the suburbs.

Every progressive mayoral candidate since David Miller left office has bombed in outer Toronto.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Olivia Chow is in- she signed up to run this morning.

Looks like there will be 6 main candidates (from left wing to right wing):

Olivia Chow, former NDP MP
Josh Matlow, city councillor
Mitzie Hunter, Liberal MPP
Ana Bilao, city councillor
Brad Bradford, city councillor
Mark Saunders, former chief of police

Matlow and Bradford have been more centrist in the past but have tacked leftward/rightward respectively in this campaign.

Olivia Chow is well-known, but I get the feeling that she might be a paper tiger in this race, particularly if the left-wing vote decides to coalesce around someone more "electable"

It's possible, but is Matlow all that electable? I heard he's absolutely loathed in the suburbs.

Yeah I don't know, but it's not like Chow's winning the burbs either. Matlow at least has a head start and is a relatively fresh face

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Toronto drivers do need more policing actually, especially in intersections.

Pro-police but pro-pedestrian, that's some #EnlightenedCentrism if I've ever seen it

[adma]

Olivia Chow is well-known, but I get the feeling that she might be a paper tiger in this race, particularly if the left-wing vote decides to coalesce around someone more "electable"

And in the event that the race boils down to "stop Mark Saunders", that "someone" might not turn out to be all that satisfactorily left wing after all, a la John Tory as the "stop Doug Ford" candidate in '14.

[Hatman 🍁]

Toronto drivers do need more policing actually, especially in intersections.

Pro-police but pro-pedestrian, that's some #EnlightenedCentrism if I've ever seen it

I'm above-all anti-car. That does not put me at all close to the centre ;-)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Olivia Chow is well-known, but I get the feeling that she might be a paper tiger in this race, particularly if the left-wing vote decides to coalesce around someone more "electable"

And in the event that the race boils down to "stop Mark Saunders", that "someone" might not turn out to be all that satisfactorily left wing after all, a la John Tory as the "stop Doug Ford" candidate in '14.

Oh yeah. Splitting the "Old City left" further is 2022 runner-up Gil Penalosa, who also announced his run. The "stop Mark Saunders/Brad Bradford" candidate might end up being someone like Ana Bailao, who's preferable but not satisfactory to progressives. But hey, "preferable but not satisfactory" did wonders for John Tory.

[adma]

Olivia Chow is well-known, but I get the feeling that she might be a paper tiger in this race, particularly if the left-wing vote decides to coalesce around someone more "electable"

And in the event that the race boils down to "stop Mark Saunders", that "someone" might not turn out to be all that satisfactorily left wing after all, a la John Tory as the "stop Doug Ford" candidate in '14.

Oh yeah. Splitting the "Old City left" further is 2022 runner-up Gil Penalosa, who also announced his run. The "stop Mark Saunders/Brad Bradford" candidate might end up being someone like Ana Bailao, who's preferable but not satisfactory to progressives. But hey, "preferable but not satisfactory" did wonders for John Tory.

And given her out-of-the-box endorsement of the Science Centre move and Premier Doug's turning it into a deal in a week without proper digestion, *Bailao* might now have stumbled into the Saunders/Bradford skunk box, herself...