Lackawanna County, PA post-Biden

[Suburbia]

Scranton Joe is not going to be around forever. Post-Biden, whether in 2024 or 2028, I can't see Whitmer or Kamala Harris winning Lackawanna...does it trend Republican?

[ctherainbow]

You... you can't see Whitmer winning Lackawanna County?

As someone who was born in New Jersey before moving here, and took a lot of sh**t for it from the locals, I can't believe I'm saying this, but please keep your bad takes on the east side of the Delaware, thanks.

Traditionally attractive white female Democrats do quite well in Lackawanna County, and there are many examples of this.  Off the top of my head, Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti and PA State House Rep Bridget Malloy Kosierowski are two current officeholders who could tell you about that.

Will Democrats continue to slowly weaken in Lackawanna County?  Maybe.  Perhaps even probably.  But would a generally inoffensive traditionally attractive white lady like Whitmer outright lose it?  Absolutely not.

Now if we're talking Harris, this area is pretty racist, so she'd have a harder time just from the jump, but I still don't know that she'd outright lose Lackawanna County.

(Also, I think people overestimate the "Scranton Joe" effect.  People in the city of Scranton are very proud of being his birthplace, but outside the city limits most people roll our eyes at it, because the man barely lived here for a few years as a kid.)

[Suburbia]

You... you can't see Whitmer winning Lackawanna County?

As someone who was born in New Jersey before moving here, and took a lot of sh**t for it from the locals, I can't believe I'm saying this, but please keep your bad takes on the east side of the Delaware, thanks.

Traditionally attractive white female Democrats do quite well in Lackawanna County, and there are many examples of this.  Off the top of my head, Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti and PA State House Rep Bridget Malloy Kosierowski are two current officeholders who could tell you about that.

Will Democrats continue to slowly weaken in Lackawanna County?  Maybe.  Perhaps even probably.  But would a generally inoffensive traditionally attractive white lady like Whitmer outright lose it?  Absolutely not.

Now if we're talking Harris, this area is pretty racist, so she'd have a harder time just from the jump, but I still don't know that she'd outright lose Lackawanna County.

(Also, I think people overestimate the "Scranton Joe" effect.  People in the city of Scranton are very proud of being his birthplace, but outside the city limits most people roll our eyes at it, because the man barely lived here for a few years as a kid.)

Someone like DeSantis would give Whitmer problems...in Lackawanna, a lot of Scranton Italians and Portuguese would come out for him over her....

Barack Obama carried Lackawanna in 2008 and 2012. Ed Rendell once quoted and joked that McCain lived in the Scranton area so much from Sep-Oct 2008 that he would have to ask him to pay income and property taxes in PA....

He won over a war hero and a successful businessman.....Harris is not likeable like Obama

[Devils30]

You... you can't see Whitmer winning Lackawanna County?

As someone who was born in New Jersey before moving here, and took a lot of sh**t for it from the locals, I can't believe I'm saying this, but please keep your bad takes on the east side of the Delaware, thanks.

Traditionally attractive white female Democrats do quite well in Lackawanna County, and there are many examples of this.  Off the top of my head, Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti and PA State House Rep Bridget Malloy Kosierowski are two current officeholders who could tell you about that.

Will Democrats continue to slowly weaken in Lackawanna County?  Maybe.  Perhaps even probably.  But would a generally inoffensive traditionally attractive white lady like Whitmer outright lose it?  Absolutely not.

Now if we're talking Harris, this area is pretty racist, so she'd have a harder time just from the jump, but I still don't know that she'd outright lose Lackawanna County.

(Also, I think people overestimate the "Scranton Joe" effect.  People in the city of Scranton are very proud of being his birthplace, but outside the city limits most people roll our eyes at it, because the man barely lived here for a few years as a kid.)

Someone like DeSantis would give Whitmer problems...in Lackawanna, a lot of Scranton Italians and Portuguese would come out for him over her....

Barack Obama carried Lackawanna in 2008 and 2012. Ed Rendell once quoted and joked that McCain lived in the Scranton area so much from Sep-Oct 2008 that he would have to ask him to pay income and property taxes in PA....

He won over a war hero and a successful businessman.....Harris is not likeable like Obama

DeSantis will struggle more in these places that people realize, the abortion bill is not popular with midwestern WWC voters. His social security cut votes can also be a problem. I could see Whitmer winning by 18 here tbh. OTOH, Kamala as an urban elite is as poor of a fit as anyone.

[ctherainbow]

Someone like DeSantis would give Whitmer problems...in Lackawanna, a lot of Scranton Italians and Portuguese would come out for him over her....

Barack Obama carried Lackawanna in 2008 and 2012. Ed Rendell once quoted and joked that McCain lived in the Scranton area so much from Sep-Oct 2008 that he would have to ask him to pay income and property taxes in PA....

He won over a war hero and a successful businessman.....Harris is not likeable like Obama

People reporting Portuguese ancestry are 0.3% of the Lackawanna County population.  Even including Italians, that doesn't get you to a quarter of the population of the county.  While the Valley is well-known in the area for its ethnic cuisine options, Lackawanna County is no longer dominated by ethnic-based politics.  The divide is between the urban Valley and the townships, not ethnic neighborhoods within the cities.

Look, I get that you're from Jersey, where there's still a lot of white ethnic Balkanization.
 Hell, when I was young and my family still lived across the Delaware, my dad was basically excommunicated by his Jersey City Polish family for daring to marry a girl from a German and English background.  But it doesn't work like that out here.  We're not a heavily blue or red state where one party is so strong that they can afford to be distracted by ethnic divides within their voting body.  We're a purple swing state, and our politics is dominated almost solely by the Democratic/Republican divide, and that's what is going to swing PA, and Lackawanna County, one way or the other.

I'm glad to see that you're moving in the right direction, from "I can't see Whitmer winning" to "DeSantis would give Whitmer problems", but please explain with statistics how you think a county that just gave 57% of its vote to a progressive Senate candidate who was off the campaign trail for MONTHS before the election... is going to flip to 50%+1 Republican in 2 years.

As to your other point, the fact that a county voted for Barack Obama does not make it not racist.  You're right that most areas in urban Lackawanna County are not OVERTLY racist, but Kamala being black is certainly not going to help, especially in places like Jefferson or Thornhurst Townships.  The only municipality in the county with higher than 5% black population is the city of Scranton, and even there, only around 7% of the population is black.  The Scranton metro area is the whitest metro area over 500,000 population in the entire United States; the area is dominated by an identity of whiteness, and whiteness as a salient political issue in the Northeast has grown since 2008/2012.

But I am genuinely interested to know how you think, with statistical backing, that Lackawanna County would flip red next year if Whitmer was the nominee.  Please elaborate.

[S019]

I really don't think Democrats will win there long term, they just barely hung on in 2016, and the idea that 2016 was the floor seems well.....wrong.

[Alcibiades]

I really don't think Democrats will win there long term, they just barely hung on in 2016, and the idea that 2016 was the floor seems well.....wrong.

Fetterman won Lackawanna by 16 points and Shapiro by 24. I have no idea what the basis for your thinking that Democrats are in danger of falling below Clinton’s 2016 performance there is.

[Continential]

I really don't think Democrats will win there long term, they just barely hung on in 2016, and the idea that 2016 was the floor seems well.....wrong.

In addition, once the Scranton to NYC rail line is completed - there will be more NYC transplants/commuters.