Rate 2028 in this scenario.

[Zedonathin2020]

In 2024, Biden/Harris defeats Trump/Lake 319–219, flipping North Carolina and winning the popular vote by 5 points bordering 6. The congressional elections see Democrats take back the House 228–207, while losing the senate 52–48. Throughout his second term, Biden’s approval rating remains about the same as it is now.

In 2026, Republicans take the House again 230–205 and flip Georgia in the Senate by 1.5% and Michigan by just half a point, while losing Maine by 4, they also flip the governorships in Wisconsin, Arizona and Kansas.

In 2028, the Democratic primaries sees Gretchen Whitmer pull a surprise victory against Kamala Harris, who had actually won the popular vote, but Whitmer managed to win all the needed delegates to clinch the nomination, she chooses former primary rival Raphael Warnock as her running mate. The Republican primaries sees Glenn Youngkin pull off a victory against his main opponent, Josh Hawley. He chooses Katie Britt as his running mate.

A couple of days after the GOP convention in Nashville, Donald Trump Jr. announces a 3rd party run, stating that he will "continue on and finish what his father started".

Bonus points if you determine how the House and Senate elections go.

[bagelman]

My first guess would be a closer election similar to 2020 but if Biden prevents a true collapse in approvals similar to Dubya's second term then it may even be Lean D. Whitmer is a far better candidate than Harris by virtue of not being Kamala Harris.

Youngkin's moderate credentials, if he still has any, will be important here. He needs to build a bridge between independents and conservatives to win. Trump Jr. I think flames out, which is good for Youngkin.