Trump wins the 2024 nomination with ~80% of the vote. The remaining 20% is split between the other candidates. Nobody else cracked double digits. Trump then goes on to lose the general election to Biden, who wins the popular vote by 6% and flips North Carolina.
Trump, predictably, claims that the election was once again stolen from him. The day after the election is called, Trump announces his 2028 presidential campaign.
Does the GOP nominate him for a fourth time in a row?
At that point, I guess so? Getting ~80% of the vote in a contested field is an absolutely insane accomplishment; the biggest non-open primary landslides have involved candidates just barely eking their way across 60%. Gore won 75% on his way to winning every state, every territory, and the District of Columbia. (And this is actually harder today, not easier, because more states vote in early Super Tuesday states, before people have had time to drop out, and early voting is more widespread). If Trump is
that popular among Republicans, my guess is he does get nominated again.
(But I feel like this almost doesn't square with the rest of your sentence: Republican primary voters are simply not
that small a fraction of the electorate, especially if there's no Democratic primary. I think a nominee that crosses 60% or so under modern rules in a modern contested primary is virtually guaranteed to come very close, and someone that crosses 70% in an open primary is probably a national winner.)
