I'm not convinced yet that 2024 will be the year Boebert will be taken down, but she's clearly on borrowed time in the next heavily favorable midterm year for Democrats.
I will say that the people that I know who voted for Polis and other wise for the GOP really dislike Boebert. A few voted for her because they really dislike Biden and Democrats in general.
They largely also think that Frisch is a faux moderate. I actually do not agree with that.
But a lot of them hate Boebert so much that I would not be shocked at all to see her lose in 2024.
The district as a whole has some very conservative constituencies. They outnumber voters in Aspen, Telluride, Eagle County etc by a large amount. Garfield County seems pretty reliable for the left now, but very tenuous.
Frisch will need to perform like Polis did in Pueblo County at the very least while also appealing to Mesa County, which is trending to the left but still a massive vote margin for the GOP.
Interestingly enough, a lot of transplants to the area are liberals from Florida.
