Which state party is worse: AZ Republicans or FL Democrats?

[Xing]

Unless AZ starts voting Democratic by massive margins, with Democrats winning in places with demographics that should be extremely unfavorable for them, FL Democrats remain much, much worse.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Kari Lake was an absolute basket case and barely lost. The end.

[DaleCooper]

Arizona is basically VA and CO 12 years delayed. Both Senate seats and the governorship flipped in Colorado and Virginia from 2004-2008 and haven’t looked back since except for brief gubernatorial flirtations in VA. Arizona going from both Senate seats and the governorship being held by one party to flipping to the other in only four years is the fastest collapse of a state party in the post-Obama era.

FL Dems are atrocious, yes, but aside from 2018, I don’t think they could have done anything else to win any statewide races recently.

With respect to CO, they did have a Republican Senator from 2015-2021.

VA nearly did as well in 2014 with the narrow reelection of Warner. 2014 really was a different time, though. That was the last gasp of federal competitiveness in either state. 2024 and potentially 2026 is really going to be the true test of Arizona's trajectory longterm. If Biden wins Arizona while losing the election, if AZ votes on par with or to the left of the Rust Belt, or if Gallego easily wins even with Sinema on the ballot will all be clear indications that AZ Republicans are in the same position as CO and VA ones were. If they fail to regain any lost ground in a 2026 Biden midterm then they're pretty much one foot in the grave, and I could potentially see them losing the legislature and almost all statewide offices in 2026 if Trump or especially DeSantis is president.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Arizona Republicans control the state legislature, a majority of the US House delegation (and a PV win there too), multiple statewide positions, and the state Supreme Court. Florida Democrats have...none of this.

AZ GOP ran a bunch of literal insane people the last couple of cycles and still got within striking distance. The FL Dems have absolutely sh*t the bed.

Yeah, for all that Kari Lake is an insane person her margin of defeat was...literally 50-50. And Trump's was 49-49. Even Masters and Finchem both coming within 4 points didn't get crushed or anything; compare Demings losing by 18, Crist by 19, Ayala by 22. Arizona hasn't actually voted left of the country since, IDK, the 1940s? 

Masters lost by 4.9% and Finchem lost by 4.8%

[Lincoln Project]

FL Democrats. They were the favorites to win FL GOV and FL SEN in 18, but:

A. They decided to underfund the Senate race so much, that electoral juggernaut Bill Nelson went from winning by 13, to losing by 0.12.

B. They decided to nominate a crackhead under FBI investigation, and caught having orgies, for Governor.


They’re in this situation as a result of their own actions.

[MARGINS6729]

FL Democrats. They were the favorites to win FL GOV and FL SEN in 18, but:

A. They decided to underfund the Senate race so much, that electoral juggernaut Bill Nelson went from winning by 13, to losing by 0.12.

B. They decided to nominate a crackhead under FBI investigation, and caught having orgies, for Governor.


They’re in this situation as a result of their own actions.

Both races were tossups and Nelson had enough money to win but threw his race away because he was lazy and incompetent, he also got very lucky with weak opponents in 2006 and 2012. Scott was a much, much stronger candidate who outworked the hell out of him and defined him early. Nobody knew about Gillum's drug problems or sexual activity during 2018. And he won the primary due to Phil  Levine and Jeff Greene splitting votes from Gwen Graham.

[coloradocowboi]

Arizona Republicans control the state legislature, a majority of the US House delegation (and a PV win there too), multiple statewide positions, and the state Supreme Court. Florida Democrats have...none of this.

AZ GOP ran a bunch of literal insane people the last couple of cycles and still got within striking distance. The FL Dems have absolutely sh*t the bed.

Yeah, for all that Kari Lake is an insane person her margin of defeat was...literally 50-50. And Trump's was 49-49. Even Masters and Finchem both coming within 4 points didn't get crushed or anything; compare Demings losing by 18, Crist by 19, Ayala by 22. Arizona hasn't actually voted left of the country since, IDK, the 1940s? 

lol this is the 2012 Colorado cope. They told me Buck only lost barely. They still had the state house! They defeated Betsy Markey and John Salazar!

And now they are non existent… I spend some time in AZ given that I live between CA/CO and the change is gonna be swift and brutal. Mexican Americans are “trending right” at a snail’s pace while older whites die off. The Rs are trading reliable educated voters for red necks. It’s the beginning stages of a death spiral, but I know it when I see it. Schweikert will lose next, and probably ciscomani too. Eventually Biggs will be in trouble.

The problem is not only that AZ is getting more diverse, but it’s very urban meaning that unlike Ohio or something, youth, especially white youth, are not into the GOP. And instead of nominating suburban moderates the best they can do is Mark Lamb? It’s done. They can’t keep up with the change.

Florida Dems are petty similar actually. They can’t appeal to retirees and anti-socialist Latinos, so they are drowning. But unlike Arizona Dems they can’t do anything about it. They nominated a moderate slate and lost bigger than ever. Florida is probably in winnable for Dems for the next few cycles.

[Pollster]

This is basically a question of whether its worse to be badly failing to stop an avalanche or badly failing to dig yourself out of an avalanche.