2024: The Death of Southern Democrats

[WalterWhite]

Note: For the purpose of this post, "Southern Democrat" will refer to any Democrat elected in the South with significant rural support; Southern Democrats, being from a highly rural region, relied heavily on rural votes in the past to win, thus requiring them to vote to the right of mainstream Democrats on many issues. As much, Mark Pryor and Mary Landrieu count as Southern Democrats; but Mark Warner and Raphael Warnock do not, for their support, like most mainstream Democrats, is concentrated in urban areas. Other Democrats from the South, such as Mark Warner and Raphael Warnock, receive their support mainly from urban areas, enabling them to vote more liberally on legislation; because they are politically divergent from the South as a whole and because they share little political DNA with other Southern Democrats, these politicians will not be considered Southern Democrats.

When did Southern Democrats die as a political faction? Some would say 1964, the year the South voted Republican for the first time on the Presidential level; some would say 1994, the year the South voted Republican for the first time on the Congressional level; others would say 2014, the year the last conservative Democrats from the Deep South (Mark Pryor and Mary Landrieu) lost their seats. However, a remnant of the old guard Southern Democrats still remains in the Senate: Joseph Manchin (D-WV).

At this point, Joseph Machin (D-WV) is the only conservative Southern Democrat left in the Senate. However, given he only won his reelection by 3% in 2018, a blue wave year, and because his next election occurs during a presidential year, during which Republicans would be heavily favored in a state like West Virginia, Joseph Manchin will almost certainly lose his Senate seat, killing conservative Southern Democrats as a political coalition. While the presidential race will indubitably receive significantly more attention, the death of conservative Southern Democrats will arguably be more important in the future. It highlights the increasing urban-rural divide present in American politics. Furthermore, it showcases increasing polarization in American politics; with conservative Democrats officially dead (and liberal Republicans effectively dead notwithstanding non-federal elections), transcending party lines will become significantly more difficult; after 2024, party identification will dictate virtually everything about a politician's voting record.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Southern D didn't just received significant rural support Brown in OH is fav because he has Suburban support, Mary Landrieu lost Reelection and we still have Beshear in KY whom is likely to win a 2nd T

We don't know if Manchin is even running in 24 he wants to run 3rd party or resign but in a wave Eday he can certainly win.

Clinton sued the tobacco industry and was impeached on Lewinsky that accelerated the transition and the Brady Bill