TN-SEN 2024 megathread

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Tennessee is the largest deep red state in the country. Texas is still pretty Republican, but it's not as red as it once was, Ohio is still trending R, Florida might be getting there we will have to wait and see. But Trump won Tennessee by +23 and it was the state to yield him his largest net win margin of raw votes. Tennessee's size actually pretty underrated, it has a similar population to Arizona, Massachusetts, and Indiana. Regardless, Blackburn is safe and will win by a large margin exceeding her 2018 win.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Tennessee is the largest deep red state in the country. Texas is still pretty Republican, but it's not as red as it once was, Ohio is still trending R, Florida might be getting there we will have to wait and see. But Trump won Tennessee by +23 and it was the state to yield him his largest net win margin of raw votes. Tennessee's size actually pretty underrated, it has a similar population to Arizona, Massachusetts, and Indiana. Regardless, Blackburn is safe and will win by a large margin exceeding her 2018 win.

Tennessee rurals in the eastern part of the state are extremely dense and extremely red. Without the Appalachian part of the state, TN would actually be competitive, but those rurals net the GOP a ton of votes Nasheville and Memphis could never overcome.

So in the election shuffler, I zeroed out the eastern half of the state to 0 turnout (I just made those counties +100 blue so it's easier on the eyes but there are 0 votes there) and it made the state R+<11%. Much more competitive than the state is right now, but a Republican should still be able to easily carry it barring a Dem landslide.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Gotta field candidates everywhere. She's the best TN Dems are gonna get, candidate wise

I think its far more strategic to avoid fielding good candidates for ultra safe seats. Remember we on Atlas are in the top 1% of people with electoral knowledge. The average actblue donor is a suburban mom in NJ, and if she sees someone recognizable from the TN three she is inclined to support them not knowing there is a virtually zero chance of them winning. That's $5 dollars to Johnson and $5 less to Tester or Brown.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

This continues a trend in recent years of the TNDP supporting more ideologically progressive candidates than it had in the past.  It tried to go to the (relative) center in 2018, but, since then, it's gone hard left.

Probably a consequence of their base becoming almost exclusively urban, and culturally somewhat progressive Nashville becoming more dominant than Memphis.

Tennessee lacks virtually any rural black influence as well compared to the Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, or Arkansas.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Gotta field candidates everywhere. She's the best TN Dems are gonna get, candidate wise

I think its far more strategic to avoid fielding good candidates for ultra safe seats. Remember we on Atlas are in the top 1% of people with electoral knowledge. The average actblue donor is a suburban mom in NJ, and if she sees someone recognizable from the TN three she is inclined to support them not knowing there is a virtually zero chance of them winning. That's $5 dollars to Johnson and $5 less to Tester or Brown.

Perhaps, but I think it’s more likely that this hypothetical donor just wouldn’t donate to any candidate at all. I’m thinking of someone like Amy McGrath in 2020. She had no chance of winning, but she got a ton of grassroots donations because her opponent was well known and widely disliked. Had McConnell not had a credible opponent, it’s not like all those donors would have picked a different Senate race and donated to Cal Cunningham or John Hickenlooper, for example. These donors probably just wouldn’t have donated at all, because they aren’t as politically involved as we are on this forum.

So I’m still in favor of fielding candidates everywhere, because I think it’s a good thing for voters to have two credible choices for any given office on the ballot. The DSCC / Dem Super PAC money will still go to the races that matter in the end (Ohio, Montana, Nevada etc.).

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1699151468782059572

That's actually smart move for once by the DSCC and I wouldn't be surprised if it was more than 50-50.