TN-SEN 2024 megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are focused on like a laser on OH and MO because we can lose MT and WV and we still get 50 anyways and last resorts TX and FL

OH and MO are blk Populated and WV and MT are like IA white populated and Kander came within 3 of Blunt when Hillary didn't winEday so an upset is possible

We don't have Nominee yet TX and FL but it's more than likely gonna be a blk male TX Manning or Love and FL Boswell or Rod Joseph, but Rev Barber said it's more practical to go after TX since FL has DeSantis

Bernie has endorsed Kunce, Gallego and Brown to secure the Filibuster proof Trifecta that's why all three are winning the Fundraiser numbers

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tennessee is the largest deep red state in the country. Texas is still pretty Republican, but it's not as red as it once was, Ohio is still trending R, Florida might be getting there we will have to wait and see. But Trump won Tennessee by +23 and it was the state to yield him his largest net win margin of raw votes. Tennessee's size actually pretty underrated, it has a similar population to Arizona, Massachusetts, and Indiana. Regardless, Blackburn is safe and will win by a large margin exceeding her 2018 win.

Do you know 6 pts is MOE that Vance won bye and there are no polls in OH stop trying to make us lose the S before it even happens what happened to Oz, Laxalt, Masters  and Walker 6 pt lead which they lost right before Eday in a Trafalgar poll

Kander lost by 3 to Blunt and Hillary didn't win the Eday cycle of Kunce is down or Brown it's problably 5/6 pts MOE

FL is a difference Animal it's DeSantis territory

Survey USA doesn't poll OH until like 6 mnths before Eday not 1.5 yrs before an Eday, I am anxiously waiting for a poll in OH

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, Senator Marsha Blackburn is Safe for Re-Election.

She did not do any controversial stuff either since she got elected in 2018.

You guys lost WI by 11 you guys arent winning Prez without WI, PA and MI anyways due to Kelly polling 10pts lower than Trump in MKE and Madison rural and suburban areas

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NAACP and Rev Barber already outline the states we should focus on blue states, Carolinas, OH, MO and TX he recruits Beto and Gallego

MO is definitely in play because KS is moving to the left of IA now and KS Sharice David's is running for Gov and Reynolds and Ernst are gonna get reelected

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I could definitely see Blackburn underperforming Trump, but this race still won’t be remotely close.

No one is running she will get 70 percent of the vote with Indy just like Wicker Barber said MO, TX OH S at the expense of MT and WV because they are white populated

It's on poor people campaign site he said you don't have to donate to Act blue donate to Poor people and they will donate to Act blue and it's tax deductible like Tithes Act blue isn't , he recruited Gallego and Beto and Bernie has endorsed Kunce and BROWN

That's why I have OH Lean D not R Brown isn't a typical D he can win this race and Vance only won by 6 MOE and Josh Hawley only beat Claire McCaskill by the same margin as Vance he isn't winning by 20, MO and KS are movimg more left than IA, Sharice David's is gonna be elected Gov in 26 and Reynolds and Ernst are gonna be reelected in 26, but Collins and Tillis are vulnerable

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Best hope for the GOP is Democrats inadvertently nationalizing races like TN/MO and shallow, ignorant Democratic activists throwing an ungodly amount of cash at them that would obviously be better spent in far more competitive races. Basically a repeat of 2020.

Generally easier for red state Democrats to pull off a "behind-the-scenes"/"under-the-radar" upset/overperformance in a more 'quiet' race (case in point: ND 2012, MS 2020, MO 2022) than in a heavily nationalized race that’s identified as a target from a very early stage on.

LoL do you know how much Josh Hawley won by 6 pts Kander came within 3 pts of Blunt it's called wave insurance and we can't donate to FL a D TX yet Emerson has Biden tied in FL because there are no nominee yet TN there is no one running but an Indy, OH is I'm play because Vance won by the same amount as Hawley 6 MOE, Females in MO outside Claire McVaskill she was an Auditor and Jean Carnahan get blown out Males like Nixon, Mel Carnahan and Bob Holden don't get blown out

Once there is a Nominee in FL and we get some polls we can donate to FL

What happened in WI you guys got blown out you guys arent winning the Prez anyways

We aren't inadvertently diverting cash to MO it's called union and Fed cash donations in OH,AZ, MT v online Donations MO, FL and TX, as I said above Poor people campaign are Donating to wave insurance seats just like last time Gary Peters diverted resources to all the 303 states and Poor people campaign put money into Tim Ryan it's on his website which I am proudly donating to, we have plenty of money to secure the union states of Baldwin, Slotkin and Casey it's called union dues they take out workers checks

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No one is running but if someone runs it can be #2 pickup after MO because we don't know yet until polling how TX and FL has changed that's why Ds are agressively targeting MO Pierce is the most likely if he does run Jones looks like he will get his seat back and I hope he runs

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not buying it she actually enters we are contesting MO, TX and FL, FL isn't safe R anymore since DeDantis going down too fast Rod JOSEPH is gaining traction as another blk candidate

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Looks like one of the Tennessee Three may run for senate after all, and it's not Justin Pearson like I had expected...
https://twitter.com/TheTNHoller/status/1662995403812356105?s=20
Any chance Justin Jones still runs against Andy Ogles though? Those will both be major money pits for democrats if they both choose to run.

Well Jones at least has a remote chance of beating Ogles, unlike Johnson against Blackburn.

Lol in a blue wave scenario just about any D can win they said Jen McCormick can beat Braun and Joyce Craig can beat Sununu we are still 18 MNTHS out dint you remember when the domino's fall they fell 2006/08/12/18

Obama wasn't favored to win IN and wasn't fav to win FL in 2008/12 and we were expecting 10 seats net gain in 2018 , we won 41 and win back the H in 20 but blue waves anything can happen

It's the same battleground states up in 2008 MO, IN, FL, OH and NC as we build our way to a Filibuster proof Trifecta , Biden is within 2 of TX we lost TX by 2 in a blue wave yr but lost TX by 10 in neutral yrs

It's a 303 with wave insurance Steve Konraki always said this that it's definitely a 303 map but since it's a Trump not DeSantis party and maps are blank any D in a competetive race can win, Thune and Neom and Stitt were on the ropes until IAN don't believe those lying approvals


Biden is +5 on Trump and DeSantis we are polling better than 22 and that was a neutral yr

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol just wait until she announces if she announces TN, FL, TX and MO are in play

I will put TN on my map when she died announced

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

To make it simple, Blackburn winning by 20 would be a disappointment for her campaign. 25 is more likely.

It'll be 63-37 at BEST.

Gloria hasn't even entered yet and no it won't be that much because a blue wave doesn't happen 18 MNTHS prior til Edays DeSantis is 5 pts back that's a blue wave a neutral cycle is 51/49 , if we get 80/70 M votes and it's VBM we fell short of that in 20 then we will win TN we won 81/74M
80/70 M votes we will win TN if it's 63/60M D it's a neutral cycle like it was in 2022 our turnout was clearly lower in 22 than 2020

We got 120 M votes in 22 we got 150 M votes in 20 that's a blue wave 150M vites


A blue wave is 52/47 and a neutral yr is 51/49
Users don't know what a blue wave is, it's not a neutral cycle Re 2006/08/12/18 all happen 18 day not 18 MNTHS before Eday, I will put TN on my map of Gloria runs we don't know yet

Users need to look at past Edays results and the difference between a Prez Edays 80/70M votes and a Midterm 63/60M, but it's still more Ds due to CA, NY and IL in this country

It tells you on politics1=com if a candidate has entered clearly Stephanie Murphy was toying with us in FL Rod Joseph is running and Gloria isn't officially a candidate yet on politics1.com that's why I haven't changed my map yet

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good we need to target as many Rs as we can

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

ENDORSED

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Solid R as much as I hate to say it

It's R tilt but a blue wave doesn't materialistic until Oct 24 do you know why a typical Eday is 65/60M a blue wave is 70/60M that's won't be known until Eday Time, we  beat McCain 60/50M and we can do the same with Trump 70/60M, it may not be 80/70 like 20 but a 70/60M is the sane result

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What’s the saying, wave insurance?

Biden emailse already that he won't spend any money in Wave states but 303 states and let our S candidates help him in red states we never know what happened until it's time to vote

If Brown is winning in OH that's the bellwether of this Eday we can win wave insurance didn't the OP blue TX avatar support Ron DeSantis for Prez and he failed

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We don't have to win all these states but if OH or TX goes D and NC there can be split Voting , certainly if the PVI is 5 or more and Biden won 50/45 wave insurance thats whst happened in.2008/12 PVI 52/46 we gotten a blue wave

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is wave insurance anyways likely target is still Cruz and Scott but don't be surprised if Rs lost in a landslide, because of Trump conviction

I always prepare myaps just in case for a Landslide Rs hardly ever win since 2010/2014/2016 10 yrs ago

That's why a tied poll with Biden is fake news this isn't 2020 Trump it's indicted and criminal Tramp and we haven't voted yet, all of us

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We aren't winning TN, if Johnson wins it would be split VOTING with other swing states but a Blue wave can happen in 14 mnths not 60 days