TN-SEN 2024 megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No one is running but if someone runs it can be #2 pickup after MO because we don't know yet until polling how TX and FL has changed that's why Ds are agressively targeting MO Pierce is the most likely if he does run Jones looks like he will get his seat back and I hope he runs

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Tennessee is the largest deep red state in the country. Texas is still pretty Republican, but it's not as red as it once was, Ohio is still trending R, Florida might be getting there we will have to wait and see. But Trump won Tennessee by +23 and it was the state to yield him his largest net win margin of raw votes. Tennessee's size actually pretty underrated, it has a similar population to Arizona, Massachusetts, and Indiana. Regardless, Blackburn is safe and will win by a large margin exceeding her 2018 win.

Tennessee rurals in the eastern part of the state are extremely dense and extremely red. Without the Appalachian part of the state, TN would actually be competitive, but those rurals net the GOP a ton of votes Nasheville and Memphis could never overcome.

So in the election shuffler, I zeroed out the eastern half of the state to 0 turnout (I just made those counties +100 blue so it's easier on the eyes but there are 0 votes there) and it made the state R+<11%. Much more competitive than the state is right now, but a Republican should still be able to easily carry it barring a Dem landslide.

[Real Texan Politics]

Looks like one of the Tennessee Three may run for senate after all, and it's not Justin Pearson like I had expected...
https://twitter.com/TheTNHoller/status/1662995403812356105?s=20
Any chance Justin Jones still runs against Andy Ogles though? Those will both be major money pits for democrats if they both choose to run.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not buying it she actually enters we are contesting MO, TX and FL, FL isn't safe R anymore since DeDantis going down too fast Rod JOSEPH is gaining traction as another blk candidate

[Tekken_Guy]

Looks like one of the Tennessee Three may run for senate after all, and it's not Justin Pearson like I had expected...
https://twitter.com/TheTNHoller/status/1662995403812356105?s=20
Any chance Justin Jones still runs against Andy Ogles though? Those will both be major money pits for democrats if they both choose to run.

Well Jones at least has a remote chance of beating Ogles, unlike Johnson against Blackburn.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Looks like one of the Tennessee Three may run for senate after all, and it's not Justin Pearson like I had expected...
https://twitter.com/TheTNHoller/status/1662995403812356105?s=20
Any chance Justin Jones still runs against Andy Ogles though? Those will both be major money pits for democrats if they both choose to run.

Well Jones at least has a remote chance of beating Ogles, unlike Johnson against Blackburn.

Lol in a blue wave scenario just about any D can win they said Jen McCormick can beat Braun and Joyce Craig can beat Sununu we are still 18 MNTHS out dint you remember when the domino's fall they fell 2006/08/12/18

Obama wasn't favored to win IN and wasn't fav to win FL in 2008/12 and we were expecting 10 seats net gain in 2018 , we won 41 and win back the H in 20 but blue waves anything can happen

It's the same battleground states up in 2008 MO, IN, FL, OH and NC as we build our way to a Filibuster proof Trifecta , Biden is within 2 of TX we lost TX by 2 in a blue wave yr but lost TX by 10 in neutral yrs

It's a 303 with wave insurance Steve Konraki always said this that it's definitely a 303 map but since it's a Trump not DeSantis party and maps are blank any D in a competetive race can win, Thune and Neom and Stitt were on the ropes until IAN don't believe those lying approvals


Biden is +5 on Trump and DeSantis we are polling better than 22 and that was a neutral yr

[Zedonathin2020]

Looks like one of the Tennessee Three may run for senate after all, and it's not Justin Pearson like I had expected...
https://twitter.com/TheTNHoller/status/1662995403812356105?s=20
Any chance Justin Jones still runs against Andy Ogles though? Those will both be major money pits for democrats if they both choose to run.

Well Jones at least has a remote chance of beating Ogles, unlike Johnson against Blackburn.

And as for Pearson he’s probably going for Cohens seat in 2026.

[Real Texan Politics]

Pearson is the only one with a chance at higher office, and that's just from being in a safe D congressional seat.

[Tekken_Guy]

Pearson is the only one with a chance at higher office, and that's just from being in a safe D congressional seat.

Jones has a chance too because Ogles’ seat is only Trump+11 and trending leftward quickly.

[Real Texan Politics]

Pearson is the only one with a chance at higher office, and that's just from being in a safe D congressional seat.

Jones has a chance too because Ogles’ seat is only Trump+11 and trending leftward quickly.

Not in 2024 though, and by the time it could get blue enough to flip, Tennessee will probably gain a congressional seat and Tennessee could potentially split Nashville into 4 seats.

[Tekken_Guy]

Pearson is the only one with a chance at higher office, and that's just from being in a safe D congressional seat.

Jones has a chance too because Ogles’ seat is only Trump+11 and trending leftward quickly.

Not in 2024 though, and by the time it could get blue enough to flip, Tennessee will probably gain a congressional seat and Tennessee could potentially split Nashville into 4 seats.

Or they just bring back the Nashville sink to stay safe.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol just wait until she announces if she announces TN, FL, TX and MO are in play

I will put TN on my map when she died announced

[Pres Mike]

To make it simple, Blackburn winning by 20 would be a disappointment for her campaign. 25 is more likely.

It'll be 63-37 at BEST.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

To make it simple, Blackburn winning by 20 would be a disappointment for her campaign. 25 is more likely.

It'll be 63-37 at BEST.

Gloria hasn't even entered yet and no it won't be that much because a blue wave doesn't happen 18 MNTHS prior til Edays DeSantis is 5 pts back that's a blue wave a neutral cycle is 51/49 , if we get 80/70 M votes and it's VBM we fell short of that in 20 then we will win TN we won 81/74M
80/70 M votes we will win TN if it's 63/60M D it's a neutral cycle like it was in 2022 our turnout was clearly lower in 22 than 2020

We got 120 M votes in 22 we got 150 M votes in 20 that's a blue wave 150M vites


A blue wave is 52/47 and a neutral yr is 51/49
Users don't know what a blue wave is, it's not a neutral cycle Re 2006/08/12/18 all happen 18 day not 18 MNTHS before Eday, I will put TN on my map of Gloria runs we don't know yet

Users need to look at past Edays results and the difference between a Prez Edays 80/70M votes and a Midterm 63/60M, but it's still more Ds due to CA, NY and IL in this country

It tells you on politics1=com if a candidate has entered clearly Stephanie Murphy was toying with us in FL Rod Joseph is running and Gloria isn't officially a candidate yet on politics1.com that's why I haven't changed my map yet

[Real Texan Politics]

Looks like Gloria’s inching closer to a senate bid announcement
https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1682473940441022465?s=46&t=59oavo1iIV...
Prepare for this to be a massive resist lib money pit, much like Amy McGrath and Marcus Flowers in years prior.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Looks like Gloria’s inching closer to a senate bid announcement
https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1682473940441022465?s=46&t=59oavo1iIV...
Prepare for this to be a massive resist lib money pit, much like Amy McGrath and Marcus Flowers in years prior.

I can see that...

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, why not? Someone's gotta run and it'd be nice if there were actually people who run in these states that inspire at least a little bit of confidence among Dems/Indies rather than these nobodies who get 20% of the vote or people who end up flaming out terribly (Krystal or whoever from SC last year comes to mind)

[Tekken_Guy]

Looks like Gloria’s inching closer to a senate bid announcement
https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1682473940441022465?s=46&t=59oavo1iIV...
Prepare for this to be a massive resist lib money pit, much like Amy McGrath and Marcus Flowers in years prior.

If she runs a strong campaign she could possibly help Democrats in the 5th district. It’s only Trump+11 and is a suburban seat trending towards Democrats.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Looks like Gloria’s inching closer to a senate bid announcement
https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1682473940441022465?s=46&t=59oavo1iIV...
Prepare for this to be a massive resist lib money pit, much like Amy McGrath and Marcus Flowers in years prior.

If she runs a strong campaign she could possibly help Democrats in the 5th district. It’s only Trump+11 and is a suburban seat trending towards Democrats.

Is there any evidence she would be a strong candidate?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good we need to target as many Rs as we can

[Canis]

Looks like Gloria’s inching closer to a senate bid announcement
https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1682473940441022465?s=46&t=59oavo1iIV...
Prepare for this to be a massive resist lib money pit, much like Amy McGrath and Marcus Flowers in years prior.

If she runs a strong campaign she could possibly help Democrats in the 5th district. It’s only Trump+11 and is a suburban seat trending towards Democrats.

Is there any evidence she would be a strong candidate?

She reps a swingy area and has won close elections before, id like to see the stats from her district but I wouldn't be surprised if it was a Trump-Biden District seeing as it's in Knoxville and her margin of victory has expanded the last 3 cycles in a row. Obviously though I don't think she can win look at what happened to breadsen in 2018 but she could do decent enough to help Dems down ballot by raising turnout.

[Real Texan Politics]

Gloria Johnson has filed for the senate race. Announcement should be imminent.
https://twitter.com/catargetbot0001/status/1687586903699415040?s=46&t=59oavo...

[WalterWhite]

This race is safe Blackburn.

[BigZuck08]

Safe R. Gloria Johnson has a very good chance of becoming the D nominee for the race, however.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

ENDORSED