TN-SEN 2024 megathread

[Zedonathin2020]

Solid R as much as I hate to say it

[ProgressiveModerate]

Best case for this is this is an Epsy situation where the Dem runs a solid campaign sort of under the radar and notably outruns Biden (though certainly not by enough to win).

Worst case is this becomes like KY-Sen 2020 and sinks tons of money into a non-competitive race and nationalizing it just for the Dem to outperform Biden by like 1 point.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

hopefully the funds that pour in will be put to actual good use building up party infrastructure statewide rather than a vanity campaign.

[Real Texan Politics]

Best case for this is this is an Epsy situation where the Dem runs a solid campaign sort of under the radar and notably outruns Biden (though certainly not by enough to win).

Worst case is this becomes like KY-Sen 2020 and sinks tons of money into a non-competitive race and nationalizing it just for the Dem to outperform Biden by like 1 point.

I’m betting on the latter

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Solid R as much as I hate to say it

It's R tilt but a blue wave doesn't materialistic until Oct 24 do you know why a typical Eday is 65/60M a blue wave is 70/60M that's won't be known until Eday Time, we  beat McCain 60/50M and we can do the same with Trump 70/60M, it may not be 80/70 like 20 but a 70/60M is the sane result

[Dave Hedgehog]

Really don't know why a thread has been made for such a patently uncompetitive race. The D's could run Dolly Parton while the R's could run a mass murderer and the R's would still walk it.

[Real Texan Politics]

Really don't know why a thread has been made for such a patently uncompetitive race. The D's could run Dolly Parton while the R's could run a mass murderer and the R's would still walk it.

This is basically the 2024 version of the 2020 Kentucky senate race. Johnson, like McGrath, will raise a metric f**k ton of money because of her association with the Tennessee Three, yet will lose by at least 20-25 points just like every other statewide democrat in Tennessee.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1687586903699415040

[hurricanehink]

What’s the saying, wave insurance?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What’s the saying, wave insurance?

Biden emailse already that he won't spend any money in Wave states but 303 states and let our S candidates help him in red states we never know what happened until it's time to vote

If Brown is winning in OH that's the bellwether of this Eday we can win wave insurance didn't the OP blue TX avatar support Ron DeSantis for Prez and he failed

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/votegloriaj/status/1699093750318870941?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4...

[wbrocks67]

Gotta field candidates everywhere. She's the best TN Dems are gonna get, candidate wise

[Real Texan Politics]

Eternal resist lib money pit

[Sestak]

Eternal resist lib money pit

Fortunately resist live are an eternal money spout so it doesn’t matter.

[SnowLabrador]

Eternal resist lib money pit

I may not agree with your political views, but I agree with you on this. Every dollar that goes to Tennessee isn't going to a more winnable race.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Gotta field candidates everywhere. She's the best TN Dems are gonna get, candidate wise

I think its far more strategic to avoid fielding good candidates for ultra safe seats. Remember we on Atlas are in the top 1% of people with electoral knowledge. The average actblue donor is a suburban mom in NJ, and if she sees someone recognizable from the TN three she is inclined to support them not knowing there is a virtually zero chance of them winning. That's $5 dollars to Johnson and $5 less to Tester or Brown.

[Senator Incitatus]

Really don't know why a thread has been made for such a patently uncompetitive race. The D's could run Dolly Parton while the R's could run a mass murderer and the R's would still walk it.

This is basically the 2024 version of the 2020 Kentucky senate race. Johnson, like McGrath, will raise a metric f**k ton of money because of her association with the Tennessee Three, yet will lose by at least 20-25 points just like every other statewide democrat in Tennessee.

At least in Kentucky you could point to McConnell's personal unpopularity with independents and his own party. Here there isn't even much indication that Blackburn will run behind Trump.

[JMT]

Gotta field candidates everywhere. She's the best TN Dems are gonna get, candidate wise

I think its far more strategic to avoid fielding good candidates for ultra safe seats. Remember we on Atlas are in the top 1% of people with electoral knowledge. The average actblue donor is a suburban mom in NJ, and if she sees someone recognizable from the TN three she is inclined to support them not knowing there is a virtually zero chance of them winning. That's $5 dollars to Johnson and $5 less to Tester or Brown.

Perhaps, but I think it’s more likely that this hypothetical donor just wouldn’t donate to any candidate at all. I’m thinking of someone like Amy McGrath in 2020. She had no chance of winning, but she got a ton of grassroots donations because her opponent was well known and widely disliked. Had McConnell not had a credible opponent, it’s not like all those donors would have picked a different Senate race and donated to Cal Cunningham or John Hickenlooper, for example. These donors probably just wouldn’t have donated at all, because they aren’t as politically involved as we are on this forum.

So I’m still in favor of fielding candidates everywhere, because I think it’s a good thing for voters to have two credible choices for any given office on the ballot. The DSCC / Dem Super PAC money will still go to the races that matter in the end (Ohio, Montana, Nevada etc.).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We don't have to win all these states but if OH or TX goes D and NC there can be split Voting , certainly if the PVI is 5 or more and Biden won 50/45 wave insurance thats whst happened in.2008/12 PVI 52/46 we gotten a blue wave

[100% pro-life no matter what]

This continues a trend in recent years of the TNDP supporting more ideologically progressive candidates than it had in the past.  It tried to go to the (relative) center in 2018, but, since then, it's gone hard left.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is wave insurance anyways likely target is still Cruz and Scott but don't be surprised if Rs lost in a landslide, because of Trump conviction

I always prepare myaps just in case for a Landslide Rs hardly ever win since 2010/2014/2016 10 yrs ago

That's why a tied poll with Biden is fake news this isn't 2020 Trump it's indicted and criminal Tramp and we haven't voted yet, all of us

[ProgressiveModerate]

This continues a trend in recent years of the TNDP supporting more ideologically progressive candidates than it had in the past.  It tried to go to the (relative) center in 2018, but, since then, it's gone hard left.

Probably a consequence of their base becoming almost exclusively urban, and culturally somewhat progressive Nashville becoming more dominant than Memphis.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

This continues a trend in recent years of the TNDP supporting more ideologically progressive candidates than it had in the past.  It tried to go to the (relative) center in 2018, but, since then, it's gone hard left.

Probably a consequence of their base becoming almost exclusively urban, and culturally somewhat progressive Nashville becoming more dominant than Memphis.

Tennessee lacks virtually any rural black influence as well compared to the Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, or Arkansas.

[Atlas Force]

Gotta field candidates everywhere. She's the best TN Dems are gonna get, candidate wise

I think its far more strategic to avoid fielding good candidates for ultra safe seats. Remember we on Atlas are in the top 1% of people with electoral knowledge. The average actblue donor is a suburban mom in NJ, and if she sees someone recognizable from the TN three she is inclined to support them not knowing there is a virtually zero chance of them winning. That's $5 dollars to Johnson and $5 less to Tester or Brown.

Perhaps, but I think it’s more likely that this hypothetical donor just wouldn’t donate to any candidate at all. I’m thinking of someone like Amy McGrath in 2020. She had no chance of winning, but she got a ton of grassroots donations because her opponent was well known and widely disliked. Had McConnell not had a credible opponent, it’s not like all those donors would have picked a different Senate race and donated to Cal Cunningham or John Hickenlooper, for example. These donors probably just wouldn’t have donated at all, because they aren’t as politically involved as we are on this forum.

So I’m still in favor of fielding candidates everywhere, because I think it’s a good thing for voters to have two credible choices for any given office on the ballot. The DSCC / Dem Super PAC money will still go to the races that matter in the end (Ohio, Montana, Nevada etc.).

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1699151468782059572

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Gotta field candidates everywhere. She's the best TN Dems are gonna get, candidate wise

I think its far more strategic to avoid fielding good candidates for ultra safe seats. Remember we on Atlas are in the top 1% of people with electoral knowledge. The average actblue donor is a suburban mom in NJ, and if she sees someone recognizable from the TN three she is inclined to support them not knowing there is a virtually zero chance of them winning. That's $5 dollars to Johnson and $5 less to Tester or Brown.

Perhaps, but I think it’s more likely that this hypothetical donor just wouldn’t donate to any candidate at all. I’m thinking of someone like Amy McGrath in 2020. She had no chance of winning, but she got a ton of grassroots donations because her opponent was well known and widely disliked. Had McConnell not had a credible opponent, it’s not like all those donors would have picked a different Senate race and donated to Cal Cunningham or John Hickenlooper, for example. These donors probably just wouldn’t have donated at all, because they aren’t as politically involved as we are on this forum.

So I’m still in favor of fielding candidates everywhere, because I think it’s a good thing for voters to have two credible choices for any given office on the ballot. The DSCC / Dem Super PAC money will still go to the races that matter in the end (Ohio, Montana, Nevada etc.).

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1699151468782059572

That's actually smart move for once by the DSCC and I wouldn't be surprised if it was more than 50-50.