What falls first? The GA Trifecta or the NC Supermajority?

[Tekken_Guy]

falls first? The Georgia Trifecta or the North Carolina Supermajority?

[Skill and Chance]

Almost surely GA.

[ProgressiveModerate]

NC

Even on a R gerrymandered General Assembly, it's pretty hard to gerrymander Rs into a permanent supermajority, especially with the County-splitting rule. For instance on the previously R-gerrymandered general Assembly map that was overturned by the courts, Trump was still 2 seats shy of a supermajority on 2020 Pres. The reason they have it now was because of an unexpected party switch and jsut the fact the GOP did well in 2022, winning quite a few Biden seats in the State House.

I think in any sort of remotely decent D cycle, Ds should be able to hold Rs below a General Assembly supermajority in NC (State Senate is prolly harder).

For Georgia, the State Senate gerrymander is quite good; yes Atlanta is shifting left, but the Northern suburbs have been experiencing decent downballot lag, and the median seat is like Trump + 13.