Would Jim Justice have won as Republican in 2016?

[Sir Mohamed]

Justice was a Republican until 2015 and ten switched to Dem to run for governor in a state that was still relatively D-friendly at the state level. Justice switched back to R in 2017 and handily won as such in 2020. What if he never switches parties? Could Justice have won in 2016 as GOP candidate?

[beaver2.0]

No.  Without Babydog (born c. 2020) he would not have won election as a Republican.  Notably, Babydog has been alive for every election Jim Justice has ever won as a Republican.

[I’m not Stu]

Justice could have won as a Republican. West Virginia elected many Republicans in 2014.

[brucejoel99]

He must not have thought so, since he only became a Democrat because Bill Cole was already the presumptive GOP nominee while the Democratic primary was still wide open.

[Mr. Smith]

He must not have thought so, since he only became a Democrat because Bill Cole was already the presumptive GOP nominee while the Democratic primary was still wide open.

Given how he governs and the events before the switch, it's pretty clear that like Hofmeister in OK, he had genuine disagreements. And The Tea Party style did have some sway pretty much until Trump won.

It's just that Trump's victory pretty much allowed the bottom to fall out.

If he won the primaries, obviously he'd win.

[I’m not Stu]

Justice would have won the general election had he won the Republican nomination.