April 2023: Will China invade Taiwan?

[SnowLabrador]

I used to think it wouldn't happen, even after Russia invaded Ukraine. However, I now believe it will, because China has a lot to gain from doing so and would win quickly. What do you all think?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Drawing a huge link between what happens to Ukraine and what happens to Taiwan was always misguided and tended to be driven by ignorance and excessive opinionatedness among people in regards to Xi and how China's government functions.
My answer is still No.

[Torie]

Not unless China wants its navy and air force cut to pieces, no.

[SnowLabrador]

Not unless China wants its navy and air force cut to pieces, no.

I don't think the US would defend Taiwan.

[dead0man]

Not unless China wants its navy and air force cut to pieces, no.

I don't think the US would defend Taiwan.

well thank the deity of your choice that the Red Chinese do


to answer the OP, no, the PRC will not invade Taiwan and Russia's massive failure in Ukraine hardens that no.  A lot of young Chinese men on both sides of the straight owe a lot of thanks to young men in Ukraine.

[Comrade Funk]

Not unless China wants its navy and air force cut to pieces, no.

I don't think the US would defend Taiwan.

Because you're a troll who deliberately dooms in every thread

[CumbrianLefty]

Even given the OPs usual priors, not sure why they think it is *more* likely now.

[SnowLabrador]

Even given the OPs usual priors, not sure why they think it is *more* likely now.

Russia is winning the war in Ukraine. I don't know what Xi thinks he'd gain politically from conquering Taiwan, but we cannot assume perfectly rational actors in geopolitics. The fact is, if China invades, it'll be over within a week.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Even given the OPs usual priors, not sure why they think it is *more* likely now.

Russia is winning the war in Ukraine.

[citation motherf--king needed]

[NewYorkExpress]

It's going to happen eventually, but not anytime soon.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

It's going to happen eventually, but not anytime soon.

It's going to happen eventually... unless circumstances change first. Such as:

Global support for Taiwan fades, China becomes a strong superpower, Taiwan decides to unify while it still gets some say in the details.

China both strengths and favorably reforms post-Xi, good-faith reunification seems possible.

China collapses, threat of invasion fades.

[NewYorkExpress]

Even given the OPs usual priors, not sure why they think it is *more* likely now.

Russia is winning the war in Ukraine. I don't know what Xi thinks he'd gain politically from conquering Taiwan, but we cannot assume perfectly rational actors in geopolitics. The fact is, if China invades, it'll be over within a week.

If Russia can't conquer Ukraine in a week, then China can't conquer Taiwan in a week.

[NYDem]

Can we please mute SnowLabrador from this board? I know there's no standards on USG, but I'd really prefer if he weren't sh**tting up other boards with his trolling.

[CumbrianLefty]

I think he may really believe it tbh, which is arguably worse.

[SnowLabrador]

I think he may really believe it tbh, which is arguably worse.

I say what I mean, and I mean what I say.

[Sir Mohamed]

SnowLabrador threaf this is.

[DavidB.]

Not sure why most people vote no? Obviously I hope it's not going to happen, but it seems quite likely that someday in the future it will. That day may be pushed a little further away now thanks to the Ukrainians' heroic resistance, though.

[Sirius_]

Russia has gotten bogged down for over a year in a country primarily consisting of flat steppes and hasn't made much progress in ages, and has been pushed back on several fronts. I fail to see how that makes China feel any better about attempting to invade an island which almost entirely consists of mountains, cities, and mud flats. Taiwan is a fortress, there's a good reason why the KMT fled to it.

[Upper Canada Tory]

I think a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is unlikely.

China is very different from Russia in terms of what its leaders perceive to be its interests. For Russia, since the end of WWII, the main geopolitical objective has been to expand militarily and to some degree, challenge US dominance. The Russians don't really care about how their economy is doing. What they care about is that their military is strong enough to maintain a sphere of influence that keeps out US geopolitical influence. That's why Russia invading Ukraine was an obvious outcome from their perspective.

From China's perspective, their primary concern for the last four decades has been economic growth, not military expansionism. China has been attempting to expand their influence by economic means, like the Belt and Road Initiative and trade and economic measures, rather than military might.

The economic instability that would occur as a result of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan makes it not worth it for Beijing and unlikely to ever happen. Let's not forget that, compared to Russia, China is very dependent on trade with Western economies, including the United States. Taiwan is also vital to US economic interests, so the resulting economic upheaval of an invasion of Taiwan would severely negatively affect China.