How accurate will polls be in 2024 depending on the GOP nominee?

[BG-NY]

Will they be more or less accurate depending on if it's Trump vs if it's Pence/DeSantis/Haley?

[TML]

I think that Trump being on top of the ticket will probably increase the magnitude of any polling error, since it appears that one major issue with 2020 polls was that Trump supporters were significantly less likely to respond to pollsters. Nonetheless, polls have had greater misses in the past, and if 538's polling model were applied retroactively to past election cycles dating back to 1972 (the earliest year with sufficient public polls for that model), significant polling errors (4 points or more) occurred in 1980, 1996, 2000, and 2012, in addition to 2020.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 303 map with wave insurance the Approvals don't matter but state by state polls do matter no matter whom the Nomination is and we don't need past 303 but MT, OH, MO and FL S are important to us I am looking clearly at FL it's not 20 pts R that was IAN it's very much like AZ

Biden isn't at 40/58 in Gallup silly polls if he is leading Trump 49/45 more like 50/47

[FloridaMan1845]

It's a 303 map with wave insurance the Approvals don't matter but state by state polls do matter no matter whom the Nomination is and we don't need past 303 but MT, OH, MO and FL S are important to us I am looking clearly at FL it's not 20 pts R that was IAN it's very much like AZ

Biden isn't at 40/58 in Gallup silly polls if he is leading Trump 49/45 more like 50/47

Hawley will win by double-digits. Scott will win by 8.

[Tekken_Guy]

It's a 303 map with wave insurance the Approvals don't matter but state by state polls do matter no matter whom the Nomination is and we don't need past 303 but MT, OH, MO and FL S are important to us I am looking clearly at FL it's not 20 pts R that was IAN it's very much like AZ

Biden isn't at 40/58 in Gallup silly polls if he is leading Trump 49/45 more like 50/47

Hawley will win by double-digits. Scott will win by 8.

Hawley will not lose but there is a possibility he is held to a high-single digit margin.

[BG-NY]

I think that Trump being on top of the ticket will probably increase the magnitude of any polling error, since it appears that one major issue with 2020 polls was that Trump supporters were significantly less likely to respond to pollsters. Nonetheless, polls have had greater misses in the past, and if 538's polling model were applied retroactively to past election cycles dating back to 1972 (the earliest year with sufficient public polls for that model), significant polling errors (4 points or more) occurred in 1980, 1996, 2000, and 2012, in addition to 2020.

This is interesting -- do you have a link?

[TML]

I think that Trump being on top of the ticket will probably increase the magnitude of any polling error, since it appears that one major issue with 2020 polls was that Trump supporters were significantly less likely to respond to pollsters. Nonetheless, polls have had greater misses in the past, and if 538's polling model were applied retroactively to past election cycles dating back to 1972 (the earliest year with sufficient public polls for that model), significant polling errors (4 points or more) occurred in 1980, 1996, 2000, and 2012, in addition to 2020.

This is interesting -- do you have a link?

Here is an article published shortly after Election Day 2020 about polling, and it included 538's retroactive national polling average (compared with actual NPV results) dating back to 1972:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-werent-great-but-thats-pretty-normal/

[oldtimer]

Will they be more or less accurate depending on if it's Trump vs if it's Pence/DeSantis/Haley?

If you judge by past performance:

They will underestimate Trump on the white vote, hit the mark with Hispanics and overestimate him with Blacks.

With DeSantis it's unknown how severe the above will be.