Should Moldova rejoin Romania?

[Sol]

Well?

I may do a follow up poll in a couple of days on Gagauzia and Transnistria in this scenario.

[CumbrianLefty]

I think the events of the past year have moved this from "maybe" to "pretty likely".

[Antonio the Sixth]

If they want to, they should be allowed to, yeah. That would also bring them into the EU and NATO without having to deal with the usual decades-long process, so it seems like a win-win.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Not without a referendum.

[Sol]

For those who support reunification, what should happen to Gagauzia? What should happen to Transnistria? What should happen given likely strong popular opposition from both of these regions?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

For those who support reunification, what should happen to Gagauzia? What should happen to Transnistria? What should happen given likely strong popular opposition from both of these regions?

For me, what matters most is the main body of Moldova get reunified into Romania. Gagauzia should probably go with the rest of Moldova given its patchwork borders. What happens to Transnistria should be driven by what makes the deal most likely to happen. I also think that it's not necessarily wrong to have Transnistria fused into Ukraine rather than serve as an independent state. I have my doubts an independent Transnistria is even really viable. There's also the option of having Transnistria continue its arrangements, only with reunified Romania as opposed to Moldova being the other party in them. This strikes me as the most feasible way.

[Sol]

For those who support reunification, what should happen to Gagauzia? What should happen to Transnistria? What should happen given likely strong popular opposition from both of these regions?

For me, what matters most is the main body of Moldova get reunified into Romania. Gagauzia should probably go with the rest of Moldova given its patchwork borders. What happens to Transnistria should be driven by what makes the deal most likely to happen. I also think that it's not necessarily wrong to have Transnistria fused into Ukraine rather than serve as an independent state. I have my doubts an independent Transnistria is even really viable. There's also the option of having Transnistria continue its arrangements, only with reunified Romania as opposed to Moldova being the other party in them. This strikes me as the most feasible way.

That sounds a bit geopolitically explosive!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

For those who support reunification, what should happen to Gagauzia? What should happen to Transnistria? What should happen given likely strong popular opposition from both of these regions?

For me, what matters most is the main body of Moldova get reunified into Romania. Gagauzia should probably go with the rest of Moldova given its patchwork borders. What happens to Transnistria should be driven by what makes the deal most likely to happen. I also think that it's not necessarily wrong to have Transnistria fused into Ukraine rather than serve as an independent state. I have my doubts an independent Transnistria is even really viable. There's also the option of having Transnistria continue its arrangements, only with reunified Romania as opposed to Moldova being the other party in them. This strikes me as the most feasible way.

That sounds a bit geopolitically explosive!

Ah. I guess the fact that Romania being so much bigger than Moldova might tilt the balance of power much farther away from Transnistria?

[Sol]

For those who support reunification, what should happen to Gagauzia? What should happen to Transnistria? What should happen given likely strong popular opposition from both of these regions?

For me, what matters most is the main body of Moldova get reunified into Romania. Gagauzia should probably go with the rest of Moldova given its patchwork borders. What happens to Transnistria should be driven by what makes the deal most likely to happen. I also think that it's not necessarily wrong to have Transnistria fused into Ukraine rather than serve as an independent state. I have my doubts an independent Transnistria is even really viable. There's also the option of having Transnistria continue its arrangements, only with reunified Romania as opposed to Moldova being the other party in them. This strikes me as the most feasible way.

That sounds a bit geopolitically explosive!

Ah. I guess the fact that Romania being so much bigger than Moldova might tilt the balance of power much farther away from Transnistria?

NATO inheriting a live border dispute where Russian forces are already on the ground seems like a terrible idea.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

For those who support reunification, what should happen to Gagauzia? What should happen to Transnistria? What should happen given likely strong popular opposition from both of these regions?

For me, what matters most is the main body of Moldova get reunified into Romania. Gagauzia should probably go with the rest of Moldova given its patchwork borders. What happens to Transnistria should be driven by what makes the deal most likely to happen. I also think that it's not necessarily wrong to have Transnistria fused into Ukraine rather than serve as an independent state. I have my doubts an independent Transnistria is even really viable. There's also the option of having Transnistria continue its arrangements, only with reunified Romania as opposed to Moldova being the other party in them. This strikes me as the most feasible way.

That sounds a bit geopolitically explosive!

Ah. I guess the fact that Romania being so much bigger than Moldova might tilt the balance of power much farther away from Transnistria?

NATO inheriting a live border dispute where Russian forces are already on the ground seems like a terrible idea.

Ah. Agreed completely.

[Torie]

Regarding Transnistria, a predicate to doing anything would be the expulsion of Russian troops. That probably can be expected in due course. Ukraine will not tolerate their ongoing presence after it stalls out/defeats Putin. If Putin actually wins, the pressure would probably be huge for the statelet to go to Rumania, but that scenario seems remote now.

But  you have this intractable issue, a powder keg that will potentially explode.



The existence of the weird little statelet is no accident. It potentially should go to Ukraine or Rumania via a referendum, but that is no panacea if the losing Slav or Rumanian side doesn't accept the result. It could be kept in limbo, but the place without the Russian troops is probably not viable, given that the Ukraine-Russian Slav "brotherhood" has been forever shattered.

In my ignorance, I have no idea what would work out best.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

My taxi driver in Chisinau, maybe in his fifties, told me his language was Romanian (we were speaking in Russian), but his nationality was Moldovan.

[Zinneke]

No, Romania should join Moldova

[Zinneke]

For those who support reunification, what should happen to Gagauzia? What should happen to Transnistria? What should happen given likely strong popular opposition from both of these regions?

Gagauzia : probably no real opposition, just the opportunity to try and get more autonomy.

Transnistria is a mafia state so it's not a question of national autonomy. When it comes to the rights or Russian and Ukrainian speakers I'm pretty sure Ukraine will lobby hard for the latter to be respected and the EU would try to get Romania to respect Russian speakers so as not to cause a casus Belli

Romania respects minorities (with the notable exception of Roma people) far better than most countries though. Dedicated seats in parliament and their own goddamn president is from a national minority, as corrupt as he is.

[Storr]

Yes, if there was a free and fair referendum that was successful in favor of reunification. Tranistria would obviously boycott such a referendum, but that legally shouldn’t matter as long as the Moldovan government gives Transnistria the ability to participate.

Plus all nations recognize Transnistria as Moldovan territory, even Russia. So there shouldn’t be international legal issues if Moldova voted to join Romania.

The main legal issue is that neutrality is in the Moldovan constitution. That means it would need to be amended before reunification because, same as East Germany, Moldova joining Romania would automatically give it EU and NATO membership through the state it is unifying with.

Edit: Or maybe it wouldn’t matter because the Moldovan constitution will be no longer valid once unification happens which will happen at the same instant Moldova becomes a part of Romania and thus a part of NATO?

[TDAS04]

Probably.

[Coldstream]

I’m surprised to learn that polling in Moldova generally opposes reunification, not sure if that’s because in the last 30 years a distinct Moldovan identity has developed or because they see joining Romania as the path of war with Transnistria.

[Lord Halifax]

I’m surprised to learn that polling in Moldova generally opposes reunification, not sure if that’s because in the last 30 years a distinct Moldovan identity has developed or because they see joining Romania as the path of war with Transnistria.

There is a majority for reunification among ethnic Moldovans under 45 and IIRC also under 50.

There is a generational divide with older people being more attached to a distinct Moldovan identity, and huge numbers of young people having already left the country to either work in Western Europe (Spain, Portugal, Germany) or study in Romania (a path to citizenship and right to legally work in the EU) so the average age of adults remaining in Moldova is quite high. Secondly, a lot of the population aren't ethnic Moldovans/Romanians and thirdly, the Romanian part of Moldavia is the poorest region of the country and neglected by Bucharest. Moldova is even poorer and if they joined Romania they'd be the country's most marginalized region. It's no wonder not everyone believes that'll be a big improvement. Some kind of union where they remain a separate entity would likely be better for Moldova than simply being annexed by Romania.

[CumbrianLefty]

That's certainly a good summary of why it hasn't happened - or even looked like doing so - up to now.

The question is how much Russia's recent behaviour changes the calculus.

Possibly quite a lot.

[NewYorkExpress]

Attempting to reunify with Romania, an EU member, would almost certainly be a Casus Belli in the eyes of Putin, and might lead to a Russian invasion by itself.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Yes and then Romania and Ukraine can launch a joint operation to clean out Transnistria 😎

[CumbrianLefty]

Attempting to reunify with Romania, an EU member, would almost certainly be a Casus Belli in the eyes of Putin, and might lead to a Russian invasion by itself.

Which is one reason why its not going to happen *right now*.

But might do once Russia is (hopefully) put back in their box.

[CanadianDemocrat]

Attempting to reunify with Romania, an EU member, would almost certainly be a Casus Belli in the eyes of Putin, and might lead to a Russian invasion by itself.

Which is one reason why its not going to happen *right now*.

But might do once Russia is (hopefully) put back in their box.

Unlike Ukraine, Moldova has no land border with Russia. There are only 1,500 Russian troops in Transnistria, which could easily be defeated by Romania and Ukraine. Putin can't stop a Moldovan-Romanian reunification.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Moldova lacks appetite to attack Transnistria for a number of reasons besides the usual ones (war is evil and not to be entered lightly etc.). The Transnistrian electorate would be a significant minority of Moldova’s and it would probably vote strongly against whichever government had just dropped bombs on it.

Ukraine also lacks the appetite to attack Transnistria, because it does not have Moldova’s blessing and has an active war in its own land which demands its scarce military resources. There’s supposed to be a large ammunition depot there, but even if Ukraine could get hold of this without it being blown up, it’s possible not much of it is usable because it’s old and the Transnistrian government is insanely corrupt. Ukraine may have better luck simply bribing the Transnistrians for the ammo.

Ukraine could try to use the threat of an attack on Transnistria as a bargaining chip with Russia, but as Russia can’t get a land bridge to Moldova to begin with, it isn’t worth much.

[Frodo]

Yes and then Romania and Ukraine can launch a joint operation to clean out Transnistria 😎

And it would make perfect military sense for Ukraine.  It would not be as high a priority as expelling the Russians from Ukrainian territory, but I am sure they wouldn't mind lending a hand to Moldova to prevent Putin from sending reinforcements and launching a backdoor invasion from there.