How does the electoral map look like if the GOP won 45% of Hispanics?
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  How does the electoral map look like if the GOP won 45% of Hispanics?		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: How does the electoral map look like if the GOP won 45% of Hispanics?  (Read 427 times)
FloridaMan1845
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« on: March 28, 2023, 01:55:05 PM »
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #1 on: March 28, 2023, 02:30:11 PM »
Flips AZ and NV? 
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Redban
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« Reply #2 on: March 28, 2023, 02:35:46 PM »
More helpful to the popular vote than the electoral vote?
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: March 28, 2023, 03:31:18 PM »
It would look different from the actual map, since in reality the GOP isn't winning 45% of Hispanics.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: March 28, 2023, 03:44:33 PM »
They won't win 45 percent of Latinos because Latinos are in blue states as well as red states and Biden won a bunch of them as Veep 2008/12/20 Rs forget Obama ran with Biden and Biden got Cubans to vote for Obama in FL in which they won by 1
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #5 on: March 28, 2023, 04:08:16 PM »

This and NM would be really close, probably still a narrow Dem win, but possibly recount range. 

Also a big PV margin out of Florida, probably with the R winning by 10%, and Dem PV margins would be suppressed in CA and NY (probably with the Dem winning by 15% or so in both) and NJ would be within single digits.  On the other hand, this would probably be a 10% R win in Texas. 
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: March 28, 2023, 05:47:19 PM »
AZ isn't going R, Maricopa went from an R to D county
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Ragnaroni
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« Reply #7 on: March 29, 2023, 06:58:32 AM »
Quote from: Redban on March 28, 2023, 02:35:46 PM
More helpful to the popular vote than the electoral vote?
This, it would most likely give the GOP better popular vote margins, save them in Texas for the next few cycles and weaken Democratic strongholds in SoCal, NM and NV.
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #8 on: March 29, 2023, 08:34:08 AM »
https://www.cookpolitical.com/swingometer

Setting the Hispanic vote to 45% GOP flips NV, AZ, NM, WI, and PA. Trump wins the EC 301 to 237 but still loses the popular vote by about a million votes.
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FloridaMan1845
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« Reply #9 on: March 29, 2023, 09:05:42 AM »
Quote from: Mr.Barkari Sellers on March 28, 2023, 05:47:19 PM
AZ isn't going R, Maricopa went from an R to D county
Maricopa is a swing county.
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Zedonathin2020
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« Reply #10 on: March 29, 2023, 01:43:45 PM »
Quote from: Mr.Barkari Sellers on March 28, 2023, 05:47:19 PM
AZ isn't going R, Maricopa went from an R to D county


So are you just unaware that Maricopa, in 2020, voted for the Democratic nominee for the first time since 1948? It could easily flip in a positive GOP environment
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #11 on: March 29, 2023, 03:10:10 PM »
Quote from: Zedonathin2020 on March 29, 2023, 01:43:45 PM
Quote from: Mr.Barkari Sellers on March 28, 2023, 05:47:19 PM
AZ isn't going R, Maricopa went from an R to D county


So are you just unaware that Maricopa, in 2020, voted for the Democratic nominee for the first time since 1948? It could easily flip in a positive GOP environment
trends matter. You could also say the same for Cobb and Gwinnett Co GA in 2016 that hadn't gone Dem since Carter's 1976 100% county sweep. Doesn't mean they will flip back. Same with Maricopa. A better example would be Orange Co, FL - went Dem in 2000 for the first time since 1948 and never looked back. But that's more due to population growth than ideology shift.
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