If Trump wins narrowly in 2024 and has a mixed bag second term, where does the GOP go?

[BG-NY]

Thinking about this. Say Trump easily carries the primary, and wins the general by some small % (sub 1% tipping point). Has an effective second term, but never gets to 50% approval.

Where does that leave the GOP thereafter? Wilderness?

[Del Tachi]

Depends on exactly how popular Trump is come 2028.  I think he'd finish his term rather unpopular and the out-party wins most open contests, so I'd say Democrats are favored.  They probably nominate a fresh face like Warnock, Newsom, Polis, Fetterman or Shapiro while the GOP nominee is either Trump's VP or DeSantis. 

[Vice President Christian Man]

2028 would likely be a 1976 redux between DeSantis and whoever Trump’s VP is. I doubt Dems nominate Kamala and while someone like Blinken or Buttigieg  could be the front runner, most likely it would be someone like Shapiro or Whitmer who has bipartisan support.

[Torie]

This is one of those highly unrealistic hypotheticals that as Georgia Moderate would put it, is one of Atlas's core competencies, that should most definitely not be encouraged by responses given that they seem to be breeding like rabbits at the moment by bored and edgy teenagers.

Particularly ludicrous is the notion that Trump's posited second term would be a "mixed bag." That is about as realistic as I growing a new head of hair.

[Peeperkorn]

Thinking about this. Say Trump easily carries the primary, and wins the general by some small % (sub 1% tipping point). Has an effective second term, but never gets to 50% approval.

Where does that leave the GOP thereafter? Wilderness?

Nazism.

[Suburbia]

2028 would likely be a 1976 redux between DeSantis and whoever Trump’s VP is. I doubt Dems nominate Kamala and while someone like Blinken or Buttigieg  could be the front runner, most likely it would be someone like Shapiro or Whitmer who has bipartisan support.

Blinken is not going to be president.....Buttigieg either

Dems may be stuck with Harris.....you can't bypass a black woman, the optics is horrible....

[Vosem]

Thinking about this. Say Trump easily carries the primary, and wins the general by some small % (sub 1% tipping point). Has an effective second term, but never gets to 50% approval.

Where does that leave the GOP thereafter? Wilderness?

Winning the presidential election outright remains more difficult for the GOP than winning the House or Senate, so we should note in this hypothetical that the GOP has strong congressional majorities, which would probably be actually setting the tone before the 2026 midterm. (Had 2022 been a perfectly average midterm, a filibuster-proof Senate majority in 2024 would've been easier than winning the Presidency. This isn't the case for the actual 2024, but something like a 4-5 seat gain while losing the White House remains quite conceivable, and only 5 gains would be surprising given the narrowest victory). The House will probably flip Democratic in 2026 assuming normal midterm patterns -- the maps will be significantly more favorable than the 2018 ones -- but there are relatively few competitive Senate seats up in 2026 and it's difficult to imagine either side making significant gains or enduring significant losses.

It depends what the congressional agenda ends up being and how the economy performs. A single Republican presidential term would leave conservative control of the judiciary much more entrenched; Democrats are also frankly facing an utter disaster in the 2030 Census, such that there'll be a strong red undercurrent in the House results in 2032 regardless of the general environment. (Although less strong than the state-by-state changes, the Census probably strongly overcounted individuals with multiple homes, resulting in wealthy urban areas and wealthy vacation areas being overrepresented; in blue Northern states there will also probably be a red undercurrent in state legislative results in 2032 regardless of the general environment.

Thinking about this. Say Trump easily carries the primary, and wins the general by some small % (sub 1% tipping point). Has an effective second term, but never gets to 50% approval.

Where does that leave the GOP thereafter? Wilderness?

Nazism.

(I strongly advise you to learn what the actual Nazi movement was like before you continue commenting on this forum.)

https://twitter.com/ClwnPrncCharlie/status/1633671325016375296

[Landslide Lyndon]

What does mixed bag means?
Killing less than a million Americans under his watch?

[BG-NY]

What does mixed bag means?

44%-48% approval

[DrScholl]

He's not going to have "a mixed bag" second term because he's already far more unstable than he was during the first term and he would be bent on getting revenge for losing in 2020. Plus the GOP is firmly behind him so they would go as far right as he would.

[Progressive Pessimist]

No matter what the 2026 midterm of his will be a disaster for the party if he becomes President again, so really it depends on how deep of a hole that puts them going forward.

But I've come to terms with what I've always known that the GOP will never learn any lessons about altering their far-right approach to politics. The aftermath of their 2022 humiliation not being enough for real introspection is evidence of that.

[Meclazine for Israel]

It depends how big the anti-wokiness movement grows.

When major social issues go unchecked, you get politicians like President Trump taking advantage of the rubber band of distrust of the current situation. 2016 is a great example.

Even if the Republicans win in 2024 or 2028, eventually it swings the other way for the same reason.

The only certainty is that people will not trust their political leaders.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump isn't gonna win we replicate the blue wall in a Midterm

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

2028 would likely be a 1976 redux between DeSantis and whoever Trump’s VP is. I doubt Dems nominate Kamala and while someone like Blinken or Buttigieg  could be the front runner, most likely it would be someone like Shapiro or Whitmer who has bipartisan support.

Blinken is not going to be president.....Buttigieg either

Dems may be stuck with Harris.....you can't bypass a black woman, the optics is horrible....

Bronz, please learn literally anything about Democratic voters. There is a lot more to the party than identity politics, otherwise Biden would never have been the 2020 nominee to begin with.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Thinking about this. Say Trump easily carries the primary, and wins the general by some small % (sub 1% tipping point). Has an effective second term, but never gets to 50% approval.

Where does that leave the GOP thereafter? Wilderness?

Winning the presidential election outright remains more difficult for the GOP than winning the House or Senate, so we should note in this hypothetical that the GOP has strong congressional majorities, which would probably be actually setting the tone before the 2026 midterm. (Had 2022 been a perfectly average midterm, a filibuster-proof Senate majority in 2024 would've been easier than winning the Presidency. This isn't the case for the actual 2024, but something like a 4-5 seat gain while losing the White House remains quite conceivable, and only 5 gains would be surprising given the narrowest victory). The House will probably flip Democratic in 2026 assuming normal midterm patterns -- the maps will be significantly more favorable than the 2018 ones -- but there are relatively few competitive Senate seats up in 2026 and it's difficult to imagine either side making significant gains or enduring significant losses.

It depends what the congressional agenda ends up being and how the economy performs. A single Republican presidential term would leave conservative control of the judiciary much more entrenched; Democrats are also frankly facing an utter disaster in the 2030 Census, such that there'll be a strong red undercurrent in the House results in 2032 regardless of the general environment. (Although less strong than the state-by-state changes, the Census probably strongly overcounted individuals with multiple homes, resulting in wealthy urban areas and wealthy vacation areas being overrepresented; in blue Northern states there will also probably be a red undercurrent in state legislative results in 2032 regardless of the general environment.

Thinking about this. Say Trump easily carries the primary, and wins the general by some small % (sub 1% tipping point). Has an effective second term, but never gets to 50% approval.

Where does that leave the GOP thereafter? Wilderness?

Nazism.

(I strongly advise you to learn what the actual Nazi movement was like before you continue commenting on this forum.)

https://twitter.com/ClwnPrncCharlie/status/1633671325016375296

I gotta leave a like on this purely for the alt-reality Seinfeld quote

[Hermit For Peace]

Trump isn't gonna win we replicate the blue wall in a Midterm

I agree.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Trumpism is cemented as the policy of the GOP, especially as a ton of establishment R senators retire in 2026.
Hot take: in this scenario Trump Jr wins the 2028 Republican nomination against DeSantis and Hawley, barely losing against a mediocre Kamala Harris campaign that only won due to Trump's unpopularity.
The GOP basically is a more populist Trumpy party and all the never-Trumpers have been purged.