Will the Democrats be locked out of the Senate post-118th Congress?

[FloridaMan1845]

Will the Senate Democrats go through a period similar to what the House Republicans went through from 1954 - 1994?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's 20 mnths til Eday it's not now wait for polls, which will be next Jan 24 not now because they just polled the same states in Nov 22

It's a Pandemic they don't have money to polling the same states with different candidate that's why they give Prez polls not state by state polls

[TML]

Not if they field sufficiently good candidates who are able to successfully localize races in states that are ostensibly unfavorable for them.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am confident we can win OH, FL, MO, MT AZ to get to 50 outside of that it's unknown, the blue wave

[SnowLabrador]

It depends on how badly they do in 2024.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It depends on how badly they do in 2024.

Biden is leading Trump and DeSantis QU 50/47 average just like Obama and Biden in 2012 stop underestimate Biden it's 20 mnths and Florida is in play we are TIED

RS got short of 23o H seats because they peaked out in Summer of 22 with 7 gas prices in CA it's 5 and here it's 3 , they got 222 H seats, it's no red wave it's a 303 map with wave insurance

Why don't you donate like I do instead of writing on Internet Biden says 10.00 a mnth

[FloridaMan1845]

I am confident we can win OH, FL, MO, MT AZ to get to 50 outside of that it's unknown, the blue wave

Ds aren’t winning FL or MO.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am confident we can win OH, FL, MO, MT AZ to get to 50 outside of that it's unknown, the blue wave

Ds aren’t winning FL or MO.

We are tied in FL I posted the Emerson poll myself and Boswell has been endorsed by Bernie he is not known yet and MO Kander came within 3 of Blunt 2016  it's an upset pick, Hawley approvals are underwater and so is Scott Cruz is at 50 percent and so was Rubio near 60 and Scott wins by 1 pt

I go by Approvals not polls, Beshear is winning by 9 pts in R 22 KY and Rs are supposed to sweep the red Govs and Laura Kelly won in KS it's called and upset

[FloridaMan1845]

I am confident we can win OH, FL, MO, MT AZ to get to 50 outside of that it's unknown, the blue wave

Ds aren’t winning FL or MO.

We are tied in FL and MO Kander came within 3 of Blunt it's an upset pick, Hawley approvals are underwater and so is Scott Cruz is at 50 percent

I go by Approvals not polls

Statewide partisan lean also exists, and just because someone disapproves of somebody doesn’t necessarily mean that they won’t vote for them/their party (2022 was an example of this).

MO is maxed-out for Rs, and FL is a completely different beast now. Where things stand today, MO is Safe R, and FL is Likely R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I will talk to you after Eday I still donate so plse spare me

Not when an Emerson poll has Trump and Desantis tied in FLI posted it

DeSantis 46/43
Biden 44/44 v TRUMP

[Vosem]

2014 was the real election after which Democrats have needed ridiculous luck to maintain Senate control. As you can see, it's occasionally possible. I don't expect 2024 to actually represent a giant change in likelihood of Senate control for either party.

[coloradocowboi]

Lol the chairman of the NRSC was asking the opposite question just today.

Definitely not. POC, college educated, and lgbt populations are growing rapidly. Evangelical Christianity is fading while the GOP is doubling down on abortion and anti gay culture wars. In the longterm any state that is sufficiently urbanized is at risk, and the Dems will be a lot more competitive in Texas, South Carolina, Utah, Alaska, and probably a few surprising ones by the end of the decade. Florida is trickier because the retirees. But where do they stand to lose more ground than the GOP? If anything, losing any two of WV, OH, and MT locks the GOP out of the senate probably for the decade excepting maybe a 2026 red wave

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol the chairman of the NRSC was asking the opposite question just today.

Definitely not. POC, college educated, and lgbt populations are growing rapidly. Evangelical Christianity is fading while the GOP is doubling down on abortion and anti gay culture wars. In the longterm any state that is sufficiently urbanized is at risk, and the Dems will be a lot more competitive in Texas, South Carolina, Utah, Alaska, and probably a few surprising ones by the end of the decade. Florida is trickier because the retirees. But where do they stand to lose more ground than the GOP? If anything, losing any two of WV, OH, and MT locks the GOP out of the senate probably for the decade excepting maybe a 2026 red wave

LoL there are 20 mnths till Eday there is no anxiety here on D's the RS didn't any new S seats in 22 when they were leading in NV and PA and GA they aren't gonna pickup OH, MT and WV and DeWine isn't on the ballot wait till all the polls come out

It's called voting too Polls aren't the end all be all you never know what happens especially since Biden is tied in FL not down by 2o because Miami is D not R

We have a shot in MO, OH, MT and FL it's not definitely

Users used to believe in waves prior to 22 but now they are so worried about a 303 map it's called wave insurance in upsets

MO, OH, AZ have blacks and brown except for MT and WV

Minorities arent the majority along with FEM we can swing a 5 pt race and Brown, Kunce and Tester aren't down by 20 but 5/10 pts MOE, that's why Oz, Walker and Laxalt lost their lead was 5 and they didn't get enough minority and Fem vote

[NewYorkExpress]

Not likely.

Even if Biden wins, it would take a really bad year for Democrats to not at least break even in 2026 and gain seats in 2028. The map is relatively favorable for them in both years.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I also think it will depend on how 2024 looks. The realistic best case scenario is them keeping the chamber with 50 seats after only Manchin loses, but in the worst case scenario where Democrats lose more than two seats, it could definitely be a long time until they have a chance at winning it back, especially if 2026 is a Biden six year itch midterm. So in that sense a lot will depend on who is President also. If 2026 is a midterm with Trump back in the White House maybe there will be a chance of flipping Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, and Texas by then. But again, that assumes Democrats aren't already in too much of a hole from 2024.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

They need to get lucky in 2024 and only lose WV, and also gain the House.
They should then be able to push through DC and PR statehood.

[Spectator]

They need to get lucky in 2024 and only lose WV, and also gain the House.
They should then be able to push through DC and PR statehood.

They probably still need to at least gain Texas in 2024 as a buffer for a likely loss in one of Montana or Ohio.

The best case scenario for Democrats is surviving a brutal 2024 map with only losing 2 of MT, OH, and WV, and gaining TX. If they can somehow against the odds win a trifecta in 2024, they would be idiotic not to make DC a state. Maybe PR too. If not…Later in the decade, they need that seat in Maine and Wisconsin, plus at least one of each in North Carolina and Alaska. Sooner or later that class 1 map is going to come and bite.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Their candidate is down to Shelly in MT and Dolan v Brown and DeWine isn't on the ballot we can beat the odds in our fav

[windjammer]

They need to get lucky in 2024 and only lose WV, and also gain the House.
They should then be able to push through DC and PR statehood.

They probably still need to at least gain Texas in 2024 as a buffer for a likely loss in one of Montana or Ohio.

The best case scenario for Democrats is surviving a brutal 2024 map with only losing 2 of MT, OH, and WV, and gaining TX. If they can somehow against the odds win a trifecta in 2024, they would be idiotic not to make DC a state. Maybe PR too. If not…Later in the decade, they need that seat in Maine and Wisconsin, plus at least one of each in North Carolina and Alaska. Sooner or later that class 1 map is going to come and bite.

I genuinely believe Biden would have to win by 6 points or something like that to keep the control of the senate.

Lean rep I Guess, it's doable but unlikely.

[Pollster]

This is one of the silliest conclusions of the David Shor-esque approach and demonstrates the limitations of relying on modeling and regressions.

Political parties in liberal democracies all across the world evolve to remain competitive and always have - the American Democratic and Republican parties are no different and our history is filled with clear examples of this. There is no such thing as a permanent majority or minority.

[SnowLabrador]

They need to get lucky in 2024 and only lose WV, and also gain the House.
They should then be able to push through DC and PR statehood.

They probably still need to at least gain Texas in 2024 as a buffer for a likely loss in one of Montana or Ohio.

The best case scenario for Democrats is surviving a brutal 2024 map with only losing 2 of MT, OH, and WV, and gaining TX. If they can somehow against the odds win a trifecta in 2024, they would be idiotic not to make DC a state. Maybe PR too. If not…Later in the decade, they need that seat in Maine and Wisconsin, plus at least one of each in North Carolina and Alaska. Sooner or later that class 1 map is going to come and bite.

I genuinely believe Biden would have to win by 6 points or something like that to keep the control of the senate.

Lean rep I Guess, it's doable but unlikely.

He needs to win Texas, which I think would take at least an 8-point national win for Biden. It's just not happening. Sotomayor had better retire.

[Spectator]

They need to get lucky in 2024 and only lose WV, and also gain the House.
They should then be able to push through DC and PR statehood.

They probably still need to at least gain Texas in 2024 as a buffer for a likely loss in one of Montana or Ohio.

The best case scenario for Democrats is surviving a brutal 2024 map with only losing 2 of MT, OH, and WV, and gaining TX. If they can somehow against the odds win a trifecta in 2024, they would be idiotic not to make DC a state. Maybe PR too. If not…Later in the decade, they need that seat in Maine and Wisconsin, plus at least one of each in North Carolina and Alaska. Sooner or later that class 1 map is going to come and bite.

I genuinely believe Biden would have to win by 6 points or something like that to keep the control of the senate.

Lean rep I Guess, it's doable but unlikely.

Ina Trump rematch, I think Biden +6 or 7 is well within range of plausibility. It’s hard for me to see how Trump whining about a stolen election is going to gain him any new voters. With that margin, Biden narrowly flips NC, and comes within probably 3 points in Texas, which I think would be enough for a strong challenger to Cruz to win. The bigger issue would be how much better could Tester or Brown do in their states compared to Biden.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They need to get lucky in 2024 and only lose WV, and also gain the House.
They should then be able to push through DC and PR statehood.

They probably still need to at least gain Texas in 2024 as a buffer for a likely loss in one of Montana or Ohio.

The best case scenario for Democrats is surviving a brutal 2024 map with only losing 2 of MT, OH, and WV, and gaining TX. If they can somehow against the odds win a trifecta in 2024, they would be idiotic not to make DC a state. Maybe PR too. If not…Later in the decade, they need that seat in Maine and Wisconsin, plus at least one of each in North Carolina and Alaska. Sooner or later that class 1 map is going to come and bite.

I genuinely believe Biden would have to win by 6 points or something like that to keep the control of the senate.

Lean rep I Guess, it's doable but unlikely.

He needs to win Texas, which I think would take at least an 8-point national win for Biden. It's just not happening. Sotomayor had better retire.

He's not winning TX without Allred and as I said why don't you Donate to Ds instead of writing on the forum about the 303 that's why it's called wave insurance after 303 we don't know until it's time to VOTE you can donate to Biden he said 10 anytime

He is leading by 4 this early and he is still dogged by Docugate but Trump is about to get indicted a 303 map with wave insurance isn't 8 it's 52/46 and he won 50/45 last time but it was close in 20 because of Stimulus checks by Trump and Pre J6

It doesn't take much to solidify the 303 but it's wave insurance because Trump which Biden can't be legally indicted as Prez

[Mr. Smith]

This is one of the silliest conclusions of the David Shor-esque approach and demonstrates the limitations of relying on modeling and regressions.

Political parties in liberal democracies all across the world evolve to remain competitive and always have - the American Democratic and Republican parties are no different and our history is filled with clear examples of this. There is no such thing as a permanent majority or minority.

The Whigs agree with this.

[Pollster]

This is one of the silliest conclusions of the David Shor-esque approach and demonstrates the limitations of relying on modeling and regressions.

Political parties in liberal democracies all across the world evolve to remain competitive and always have - the American Democratic and Republican parties are no different and our history is filled with clear examples of this. There is no such thing as a permanent majority or minority.

The Whigs agree with this.

The Whigs almost certainly would have evolved to remain competitive if they weren't dealt the one-two punch of an all-consuming issue like slavery and virtually all of their key leaders dying in rapid succession at the worst possible time.