Since 2000, the general political trends have been relatively constant: the West Coast, most of the Northeast, and portions of the Midwest reliably vote Democratic; most of the Mountain States, the Great Plains, and most of the South vote reliably Republican. Throughout those years, there have certainly been changes (Virginia and Colorado transitioned from Republican-leaning to solidly Democratic; Missouri and Arkansas transitioned from slightly Republican-leaning to solidly Republican; Georgia transitioned from solidly Republican to competitive; etc...); however, the very broad trends in the electoral maps have been relatively constant. Based on current political trends regarding the messaging of each party, these electoral patterns will likely remain constant for the foreseeable future.
Partisanship is increasingIn the 2020 Presidential Election, zero states shifted by a margin of more than 10% for each party compared to 2016; this was the first presidential election in American history in which that is true. Additionally, the total number of states that flip each election remain small; in 2004, 3 states flipped; in 2008, 9 states flipped; in 2012, 2 states flipped; in 2016, 6 states flipped; in 2020, 5 states flipped. The last election in which 10 or more states flipped was 2000; however, with rightward shifts in many states, especially in the South, large losses for the Democratic Party were to be expected.
As recently as 2008, many reliably Republican states (even at the time), such as Arkansas, Louisiana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and West Virginia had Democratic Senators; conversely, many reliably Democratic states (even at the time), such as Maine and Oregon, had Republican Senators. However, in 2018, a year very favorable for the Democratic Party, the Republicans gained a net of two Senate seats because the Democratic Party had to defend seats in solidly Republican territory.
Overall, political partisanship is increasing. With people firmly voting Republican or Democratic, split-ticket voting is becoming much rarer, especially on statewide levels. Additionally, this phenomenon is making it much more difficult for politicians to shift states drastically towards one party or another; this was especially highlighted in 2020, when zero states shifted by double-digit margins. If this level of partisanship continues, American elections are likely to remain deadlocked.
Campaign tacticsRecently, the Democratic Party has started embracing progressive viewpoints. While the majority of Democratic politicians are not progressive, progressives are gaining momentum within the party. Progressivism, especially economically progressive viewpoints, would help Democrats in the Rust Belt, and the socially progressive viewpoints would help Democrats among highly college-educated voters in more urban Sun Belt states; however, in the highly conservative South, such an ideology would have a negative impact. Overall, progressivism is good for the Democratic Party in urban areas and the Rust Belt; and has a neutral impact on some Sun Belt states but a negative impact on most.
Recently, the Republican Party has started embracing populist viewpoints. This messaging has worked very well in the Rust Belt, where economic hardship has caused many to embrace such messaging. However, this messaging has alienated many Sun Belt voters who do not appreciate, in their eyes, the Republican Party acting "uncivil" and "politically incorrect". Overall, populism is good for the Republican Party in the Rust Belt and bad for the Republican Party in the Sun Belt.
These two forces conflict. On one hand, increasing progressivism help Democrats in the Rust Belt and hurts them in the Sun Belt; on the other hand, increasing populism helps Republicans in the Rust Belt and hurts them in the Sun Belt. With these political forces cancelling each other out, the net result is a static political map. In the future, there is unlikely to be a major shift rightward or leftward in either the Rust Belt or the Sun Belt; both regions will likely stay highly competitive.
What does this mean in the future?It means that proposals will require bipartisan support to pass in the future; there is unlikely to be a 60+ seat majority in the Senate any time soon, so the filibuster will likely be a factor for the foreseeable future. With proposals requiring bipartisan support, neither party will likely be able to pass their agenda any time soon.
It means that the United States of America will continue fracturing along political lines; Republicans and Democrats will continue hating each other and very likely never see eye-to-eye in the foreseeable future. It also means that the United States of America will transition into an oligarchical society; party leaders and high-ranking politicians will really be the ones calling the shots, and most politicians will likely follow the party line lest they want to doom their chances of reelection.
For political junkies, it means that 62% of the electoral votes in any presidential election in the near future are already predetermined.
