The current party system is likely here to stay
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  The current party system is likely here to stay
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Author Topic: The current party system is likely here to stay  (Read 1738 times)
WalterWhite
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« on: March 20, 2023, 03:55:00 PM »

Since 2000, the general political trends have been relatively constant: the West Coast, most of the Northeast, and portions of the Midwest reliably vote Democratic; most of the Mountain States, the Great Plains, and most of the South vote reliably Republican. Throughout those years, there have certainly been changes (Virginia and Colorado transitioned from Republican-leaning to solidly Democratic; Missouri and Arkansas transitioned from slightly Republican-leaning to solidly Republican; Georgia transitioned from solidly Republican to competitive; etc...); however, the very broad trends in the electoral maps have been relatively constant. Based on current political trends regarding the messaging of each party, these electoral patterns will likely remain constant for the foreseeable future.

Partisanship is increasing

In the 2020 Presidential Election, zero states shifted by a margin of more than 10% for each party compared to 2016; this was the first presidential election in American history in which that is true. Additionally, the total number of states that flip each election remain small; in 2004, 3 states flipped; in 2008, 9 states flipped; in 2012, 2 states flipped; in 2016, 6 states flipped; in 2020, 5 states flipped. The last election in which 10 or more states flipped was 2000; however, with rightward shifts in many states, especially in the South, large losses for the Democratic Party were to be expected.

As recently as 2008, many reliably Republican states (even at the time), such as Arkansas, Louisiana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and West Virginia had Democratic Senators; conversely, many reliably Democratic states (even at the time), such as Maine and Oregon, had Republican Senators. However, in 2018, a year very favorable for the Democratic Party, the Republicans gained a net of two Senate seats because the Democratic Party had to defend seats in solidly Republican territory.

Overall, political partisanship is increasing. With people firmly voting Republican or Democratic, split-ticket voting is becoming much rarer, especially on statewide levels. Additionally, this phenomenon is making it much more difficult for politicians to shift states drastically towards one party or another; this was especially highlighted in 2020, when zero states shifted by double-digit margins. If this level of partisanship continues, American elections are likely to remain deadlocked.

Campaign tactics

Recently, the Democratic Party has started embracing progressive viewpoints. While the majority of Democratic politicians are not progressive, progressives are gaining momentum within the party. Progressivism, especially economically progressive viewpoints, would help Democrats in the Rust Belt, and the socially progressive viewpoints would help Democrats among highly college-educated voters in more urban Sun Belt states; however, in the highly conservative South, such an ideology would have a negative impact. Overall, progressivism is good for the Democratic Party in urban areas and the Rust Belt; and has a neutral impact on some Sun Belt states but a negative impact on most.

Recently, the Republican Party has started embracing populist viewpoints. This messaging has worked very well in the Rust Belt, where economic hardship has caused many to embrace such messaging. However, this messaging has alienated many Sun Belt voters who do not appreciate, in their eyes, the Republican Party acting "uncivil" and "politically incorrect". Overall, populism is good for the Republican Party in the Rust Belt and bad for the Republican Party in the Sun Belt.

These two forces conflict. On one hand, increasing progressivism help Democrats in the Rust Belt and hurts them in the Sun Belt; on the other hand, increasing populism helps Republicans in the Rust Belt and hurts them in the Sun Belt. With these political forces cancelling each other out, the net result is a static political map. In the future, there is unlikely to be a major shift rightward or leftward in either the Rust Belt or the Sun Belt; both regions will likely stay highly competitive.

What does this mean in the future?

It means that proposals will require bipartisan support to pass in the future; there is unlikely to be a 60+ seat majority in the Senate any time soon, so the filibuster will likely be a factor for the foreseeable future. With proposals requiring bipartisan support, neither party will likely be able to pass their agenda any time soon.

It means that the United States of America will continue fracturing along political lines; Republicans and Democrats will continue hating each other and very likely never see eye-to-eye in the foreseeable future. It also means that the United States of America will transition into an oligarchical society; party leaders and high-ranking politicians will really be the ones calling the shots, and most politicians will likely follow the party line lest they want to doom their chances of reelection.

For political junkies, it means that 62% of the electoral votes in any presidential election in the near future are already predetermined.

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FloridaMan1845
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« Reply #1 on: March 20, 2023, 04:42:52 PM »

Since 2000, the general political trends have been relatively constant: the West Coast, most of the Northeast, and portions of the Midwest reliably vote Democratic; most of the Mountain States, the Great Plains, and most of the South vote reliably Republican. Throughout those years, there have certainly been changes (Virginia and Colorado transitioned from Republican-leaning to solidly Democratic; Missouri and Arkansas transitioned from slightly Republican-leaning to solidly Republican; Georgia transitioned from solidly Republican to competitive; etc...); however, the very broad trends in the electoral maps have been relatively constant. Based on current political trends regarding the messaging of each party, these electoral patterns will likely remain constant for the foreseeable future.

Partisanship is increasing

In the 2020 Presidential Election, zero states shifted by a margin of more than 10% for each party compared to 2016; this was the first presidential election in American history in which that is true. Additionally, the total number of states that flip each election remain small; in 2004, 3 states flipped; in 2008, 9 states flipped; in 2012, 2 states flipped; in 2016, 6 states flipped; in 2020, 5 states flipped. The last election in which 10 or more states flipped was 2000; however, with rightward shifts in many states, especially in the South, large losses for the Democratic Party were to be expected.

As recently as 2008, many reliably Republican states (even at the time), such as Arkansas, Louisiana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and West Virginia had Democratic Senators; conversely, many reliably Democratic states (even at the time), such as Maine and Oregon, had Republican Senators. However, in 2018, a year very favorable for the Democratic Party, the Republicans gained a net of two Senate seats because the Democratic Party had to defend seats in solidly Republican territory.

Overall, political partisanship is increasing. With people firmly voting Republican or Democratic, split-ticket voting is becoming much rarer, especially on statewide levels. Additionally, this phenomenon is making it much more difficult for politicians to shift states drastically towards one party or another; this was especially highlighted in 2020, when zero states shifted by double-digit margins. If this level of partisanship continues, American elections are likely to remain deadlocked.

Campaign tactics

Recently, the Democratic Party has started embracing progressive viewpoints. While the majority of Democratic politicians are not progressive, progressives are gaining momentum within the party. Progressivism, especially economically progressive viewpoints, would help Democrats in the Rust Belt, and the socially progressive viewpoints would help Democrats among highly college-educated voters in more urban Sun Belt states; however, in the highly conservative South, such an ideology would have a negative impact. Overall, progressivism is good for the Democratic Party in urban areas and the Rust Belt; and has a neutral impact on some Sun Belt states but a negative impact on most.

Recently, the Republican Party has started embracing populist viewpoints. This messaging has worked very well in the Rust Belt, where economic hardship has caused many to embrace such messaging. However, this messaging has alienated many Sun Belt voters who do not appreciate, in their eyes, the Republican Party acting "uncivil" and "politically incorrect". Overall, populism is good for the Republican Party in the Rust Belt and bad for the Republican Party in the Sun Belt.

These two forces conflict. On one hand, increasing progressivism help Democrats in the Rust Belt and hurts them in the Sun Belt; on the other hand, increasing populism helps Republicans in the Rust Belt and hurts them in the Sun Belt. With these political forces cancelling each other out, the net result is a static political map. In the future, there is unlikely to be a major shift rightward or leftward in either the Rust Belt or the Sun Belt; both regions will likely stay highly competitive.

What does this mean in the future?

It means that proposals will require bipartisan support to pass in the future; there is unlikely to be a 60+ seat majority in the Senate any time soon, so the filibuster will likely be a factor for the foreseeable future. With proposals requiring bipartisan support, neither party will likely be able to pass their agenda any time soon.

It means that the United States of America will continue fracturing along political lines; Republicans and Democrats will continue hating each other and very likely never see eye-to-eye in the foreseeable future. It also means that the United States of America will transition into an oligarchical society; party leaders and high-ranking politicians will really be the ones calling the shots, and most politicians will likely follow the party line lest they want to doom their chances of reelection.

For political junkies, it means that 62% of the electoral votes in any presidential election in the near future are already predetermined.


2020 battleground map?
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MakeAmericaBritishAgain
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« Reply #2 on: March 26, 2023, 11:06:47 AM »

Well I hope this analysis isn't true, the current polarisation has not been good for the US
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #3 on: March 27, 2023, 05:53:09 PM »

Well I hope this analysis isn't true, the current polarisation has not been good for the US

Also, what does "here to stay" mean?  For how long?  How positive do you think people were in the 1880s that the current "party system" was there to stay?  I'm going to say pretty confident, lol.
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MarkD
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« Reply #4 on: March 27, 2023, 11:32:56 PM »

Since partisanship and ideological purity are increasing - with Republicans becoming more conservative and Democrats becoming more liberal -- a new third party ought to be emerging to represent those of us who are near the center
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TML
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« Reply #5 on: March 27, 2023, 11:57:47 PM »

Since partisanship and ideological purity are increasing - with Republicans becoming more conservative and Democrats becoming more liberal -- a new third party ought to be emerging to represent those of us who are near the center

But in order for any such party to be viable, first-past-the-post must be scrapped and replaced with proportional representation and/or RCV.
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FloridaMan1845
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« Reply #6 on: March 28, 2023, 09:10:46 AM »

Since partisanship and ideological purity are increasing - with Republicans becoming more conservative and Democrats becoming more liberal -- a new third party ought to be emerging to represent those of us who are near the center

But in order for any such party to be viable, first-past-the-post must be scrapped and replaced with proportional representation and/or RCV.
Somebody could come along and pull a Perot, no? If people grow sick of the extremism, it’s entirely feasible that a viable centrist 3rd party arises imo.
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Fancyarcher
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« Reply #7 on: March 28, 2023, 11:59:22 AM »

Since partisanship and ideological purity are increasing - with Republicans becoming more conservative and Democrats becoming more liberal -- a new third party ought to be emerging to represent those of us who are near the center

But in order for any such party to be viable, first-past-the-post must be scrapped and replaced with proportional representation and/or RCV.
Somebody could come along and pull a Perot, no? If people grow sick of the extremism, it’s entirely feasible that a viable centrist 3rd party arises imo.

The problem though, is that the current system as it's implemented doesn't really allow for third parties to breakout in any major way, beyond like maybe Trump going crazy if he somehow loses the primary.

It's not impossible, but it's very unlikely.
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ottermax
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« Reply #8 on: March 29, 2023, 08:51:15 PM »

Maybe; I would argue that America's party system is slowly or rapidly becoming more like the current French tripolar system, but keeping on to the 2 party labels of D and R.

Currently France has a well defined Left, Center, and Right.

America has a very small Left (Squad/Progressives), fairly large Center (dominated by Democrats and a few Republicans like Murkowski, Meijer, Cheney, and Collins), and a robust, but alienating Right.

Our primary system has become very clearly a system defined by these three poles with Democrats fighting between Leftists and Centrists, and Republicans fighting between Centrists and Rightists (more like Establishment vs Trumpists). Primaries were not this ideological even 10 years ago (2008 or 2012 for both parties lacked this ideological divide).

It will be interesting to see how the Republican party handles power - I think the divide between the Center and Right will become more prominent when they take power again especially because it looks like the Right has been co-opted by the Trump celebrity machine.

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khuzifenq
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« Reply #9 on: April 01, 2023, 01:16:54 PM »

Maybe; I would argue that America's party system is slowly or rapidly becoming more like the current French tripolar system, but keeping on to the 2 party labels of D and R.

Currently France has a well defined Left, Center, and Right.

America has a very small Left (Squad/Progressives), fairly large Center (dominated by Democrats and a few Republicans like Murkowski, Meijer, Cheney, and Collins), and a robust, but alienating Right.

Our primary system has become very clearly a system defined by these three poles with Democrats fighting between Leftists and Centrists, and Republicans fighting between Centrists and Rightists (more like Establishment vs Trumpists). Primaries were not this ideological even 10 years ago (2008 or 2012 for both parties lacked this ideological divide).

It will be interesting to see how the Republican party handles power - I think the divide between the Center and Right will become more prominent when they take power again especially because it looks like the Right has been co-opted by the Trump celebrity machine.

Wonder how these ideological cleavages intersect with Senator/House Rep positions on the proposal to ban TikTok and restrict VPNs

This is a very interesting bill because all the centrist politicians support it, but when you move outwards to the extremes you see people like AOC and Tucker Carlson being visibly against it.

Makes sense if you look at it that centrist=establishment. Censorship/Media Regulations usually favor them.


There are legitimate concerns with Tiktok but the bill is way too broad and could result in a Patriot Act on steroids'.

If you're concerned about Chinese authoritarianism, the answer isn't American authoritarianism.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #10 on: April 11, 2023, 08:35:59 AM »

Since partisanship and ideological purity are increasing - with Republicans becoming more conservative and Democrats becoming more liberal -- a new third party ought to be emerging to represent those of us who are near the center

But in order for any such party to be viable, first-past-the-post must be scrapped and replaced with proportional representation and/or RCV.
Somebody could come along and pull a Perot, no? If people grow sick of the extremism, it’s entirely feasible that a viable centrist 3rd party arises imo.

That is how the Republican (Free Soil) Party came into existence in the 1850's.
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #11 on: April 20, 2023, 05:59:13 PM »

Well I hope this analysis isn't true, the current polarisation has not been good for the US

Also, what does "here to stay" mean?  For how long?  How positive do you think people were in the 1880s that the current "party system" was there to stay?  I'm going to say pretty confident, lol.

The party system in 1880 did last until 1928/1932! That's still a very good run.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #12 on: April 21, 2023, 09:38:23 PM »

Well I hope this analysis isn't true, the current polarisation has not been good for the US

Also, what does "here to stay" mean?  For how long?  How positive do you think people were in the 1880s that the current "party system" was there to stay?  I'm going to say pretty confident, lol.

The party system in 1880 did last until 1928/1932! That's still a very good run.

No it didn't.

The entire landscape switched with The Panic of 1893 and Rise of Bryan. 
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #13 on: April 21, 2023, 10:06:51 PM »

Well I hope this analysis isn't true, the current polarisation has not been good for the US

Also, what does "here to stay" mean?  For how long?  How positive do you think people were in the 1880s that the current "party system" was there to stay?  I'm going to say pretty confident, lol.

The party system in 1880 did last until 1928/1932! That's still a very good run.

No it didn't.

The entire landscape switched with The Panic of 1893 and Rise of Bryan.  

In some ways it changed in 1896: but at the same time America went from having Republican Presidents for 28 out of the past 36 years to having...Republican Presidents for the next 28 out of 36 years.

1860 to 1932 was a remarkable run for the Republican party.
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dw93
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« Reply #14 on: April 22, 2023, 01:57:36 PM »

I think it's TBD. There still debate as to when the 5th party system ended and the 6th began, I personally think 1980 is a better start date for the 6th party system than 1968 or 1992/1994. Regardless of when it started, there were signs of cracking in the 6th party system as early as 2008 and it only continued to crack from there, and I would argue the pandemic started an outright unraveling of it. Time could show it started in 2008, 2016, or 2020, or it could end up starting at a later date, regardless I don't think, especially with the generational turnover we've had that the current system is here to stay.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #15 on: May 02, 2023, 08:40:04 PM »

A Party that takes dominance among educated voters gets strong advantages in elections. Weii-educated people may seem open-minded, but they are difficult to swing -- especially by populist arguments directed at low-brow voters. When Trump said that he loved 'low-information voters', he offended educated voters.

These people are more likely to flip someone seeking their vote than they are to be convinced.

White, straight, Christian privilege is becoming irrelevant.
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