Is the 2023 WISC race turning into 2019 2.0?

[Tekken_Guy]

Is the 2023 Supreme Court race turning into 2019 2.0? Where the liberal was heavily favored, only for a come-from-behind conservative win?

[Skill and Chance]

Is there any evidence for this?

[Nyvin]

Sure doesn't seem like it.   I don't see anything of this nature happening right now.

[Yoda]

I feel like most of us (who are not on the ground in WI) can't really speak to this, but there are some pretty huge differences from 2019. Roe v Wade being overturned by SCOTUS guarantees that dems won't be caught sleeping this time. Republicans always knew they'd pay a political price when the dog finally caught the proverbial car, and this race is an example of that price. The dem judge is also blowing the republican out of the water in advertising, and the repub judge has zero crossover appeal. Primary turnout also suggests democratic turnout will be at least on par with republican turnout, if not greater. I truly can't fathom in this environment dems turning out less than repubs, which is why they lost in '19.

So unless something specific prompted this question, it seems like the answer is no.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Amongst other things already said Hagedorn is a much better candidate than Kelley.

[Pollster]

On this day in 2019, the liberal candidate had outspent Brian Hagedorn by about $108,000.

As of this writing, Janet Protasiewicz has outspent Kelly by about $8,000,000.

[Duke of York]

I see no sign of this. The de facto Republican is getting blown out in terms of advertising and there is no sign Democrats are taking the election for granted.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Literally where is the reason you think this?

This thread reminds me of the “REF WAVVE” threads before 2022 election

[Tekken_Guy]

Literally where is the reason you think this?

This thread reminds me of the “REF WAVVE” threads before 2022 election

I’ve seen some conservatives on Election Twitter saying Kelly has momentum.

[FloridaMan1845]

We will see.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Literally where is the reason you think this?

This thread reminds me of the “REF WAVVE” threads before 2022 election

I’ve seen some conservatives on Election Twitter saying Kelly has momentum.

And their reasoning is....?

[Gass3268]

Literally where is the reason you think this?

This thread reminds me of the “REF WAVVE” threads before 2022 election

I’ve seen some conservatives on Election Twitter saying Kelly has momentum.

And their reasoning is....?

Even there internal polling has Protasiewicz up 2-4 points.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Literally where is the reason you think this?

This thread reminds me of the “REF WAVVE” threads before 2022 election

I’ve seen some conservatives on Election Twitter saying Kelly has momentum.

So you’re literally agreeing with me? Most of the “red wave” narrative came from Republican pundits based on nothing other then their assertions.

[Tekken_Guy]

Literally where is the reason you think this?

This thread reminds me of the “REF WAVVE” threads before 2022 election

I’ve seen some conservatives on Election Twitter saying Kelly has momentum.

And their reasoning is....?

Some chatter about Dan Kelly’s “ground game”.

[Spectator]

Literally where is the reason you think this?

This thread reminds me of the “REF WAVVE” threads before 2022 election

I’ve seen some conservatives on Election Twitter saying Kelly has momentum.

And their reasoning is....?

Some chatter about Dan Kelly’s “ground game”.

LOL

[GeorgiaModerate]

Literally where is the reason you think this?

This thread reminds me of the “REF WAVVE” threads before 2022 election

I’ve seen some conservatives on Election Twitter saying Kelly has momentum.

And their reasoning is....?

Some chatter about Dan Kelly’s “ground game”.

Sounds like wishcasting.

[Xing]

I mean, it's possible it could turn out this way, but I certainly wouldn't bet on it.

[Yoda]

Literally where is the reason you think this?

This thread reminds me of the “REF WAVVE” threads before 2022 election

I’ve seen some conservatives on Election Twitter saying Kelly has momentum.

I saw a bunch of conservatives on Twitter saying that Paul Pelosi wasn't attacked by a crazy guy who broke into his house. Apparently the real story is that the guy was Paul Pelosi's secret gay lover, it was a lover's quarrel gone wrong, and in fact the broken glass showed that the hammer broke the window from the inside.....

I also saw a bunch of conservatives on Twitter say that it wasn't really trump supporters who attacked the Capitol and police on 1/6, it was really antifa!!1! in disguise and deep-state FBI agents in a grand conspiracy to make trump supporters look like wild, violent terrorists.

I feel like it's overkill to say it at this point but Imma still say it: random "conservatives" online is not a source. If anything, it's a reason to assume something is not true, given the known track record of anonymous conservatives online deliberately outright lying to spread disinformation b/c reality does not look good for their party.

[Duke of York]

I mean, it's possible it could turn out this way, but I certainly wouldn't bet on it.

Very early turnout numbers don't indicate it.

[bagelman]

2020 is the only year that can lay claim to 2019 2.0. 2023 would be 2019 5.0.

[redjohn]

Obv not, and anyone who claims so did not pay any attention in 2019.

The problem in 2019 was that most Democratic-leaning voters across the state were barely engaged by the liberal candidate, and the liberal candidate ran such a middle-of-the-road campaign that it wasn't easily clear she was even a strongly liberal candidate. Democrats course-corrected in 2020 and easily won, and would've won even without the Democratic primary being on the same day (although would've been a more modest D+5/6 result).

Janet is running a more partisan campaign than the liberal candidate in 2020, riding on the hopes that the abortion backlash is still pervasive across voters. It'll be very interesting to see where she gains relative to last year's statewide races and where areas swing to Kelly. Not a hot take, but I expect we'll see continuations of prior trends (rural areas and small towns continue to swing R, cities and suburban areas continue to swing D).

[DaleCooper]

Literally where is the reason you think this?

This thread reminds me of the “REF WAVVE” threads before 2022 election

I’ve seen some conservatives on Election Twitter saying Kelly has momentum.

A meth-head passed out on the side of the road told me that Kelly was going to win. And all the blue-wave Twitter people are surely saying that Janet is going to win. It doesn't mean anything.

If the conservative wins then there'll be plenty of real analysis after the fact to figure out why that happened, and it'll have nothing to do with what wishful-thinking Twitter users said.

[Person Man]

Sure, if there is a massive change in culture.

[Epaminondas]

In the end it was 2018 2.0

The best news is that if Dems don't relent, the WISC could be 6-1 progressive by 2028.

[Sestak]

In the end it was 2018 2.0

The best news is that if Dems don't relent, the WISC could be 6-1 progressive by 2028.

2018 3.0, actually.