Yes, Humphrey would not have been a good candidate for the Southern Democratic vote so Nixon still wins though he does worse in the Midwest. I would say this is how the map looks like then
IL/OH are completely 50/50 here but it doesn't matter as Nixon still gets over 300 without either
Yup, I think this pretty much nails it. HHH wasn't a good candidate for the South and I could imagine Wallace even took away more votes from him than Nixon.
Only way Nixon actually loses this matchup is with his sabotage of Paris talks being revealed.