Would Nixon have won in 1968 without Wallace splitting the Dem vote?
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  Would Nixon have won in 1968 without Wallace splitting the Dem vote?
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Author Topic: Would Nixon have won in 1968 without Wallace splitting the Dem vote?  (Read 738 times)
BG-NY
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« on: March 19, 2023, 11:46:46 PM »

Thoughts?
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #1 on: March 20, 2023, 12:23:45 AM »

Yes, Humphrey would not have been a good candidate for the Southern Democratic vote so Nixon still wins though he does worse in the Midwest. I would say this is how the map looks like then



IL/OH are completely 50/50 here but it doesn't matter as Nixon still gets over 300 without either
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #2 on: March 20, 2023, 05:59:12 AM »

The Reagan Revolution is long over the RS obviously during that time got 44 percent of Latino vote they won NV, VA and CO and stole CA because Reagan support immigration reform, but since 2006 it has flipped towards D
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #3 on: March 20, 2023, 07:13:36 AM »

Plenty of analysis after the 1968 election indicated that if Wallace had not run, the popular vote would have been a 1944 Roosevelt/Dewey type, about 53/47 in favor of Nixon.  That is, Nixon would have picked up the overwhelming majority of Wallace's Southern vote, and there would have been a likely split in the Midwest--with much of the labor vote going back to the Democrats.

On the electoral side, Nixon would have swept the South (including Texas) with a good chance at taking Pennsylvania and Maryland.  Possible that Humphrey could have made Ohio and Illinois more competitive.

But that's assuming only that Wallace didn't run and nothing else changed.  Of course, so much else would have been different.  LBJ may have decided to run after all and could have overcome the anti-Johnson sentiment.  The debacle in Chicago could have been minimized.  The Democrats may have tried to shore up their (then) advantage in the Southern states with a different running mate such as Oklahoma's Fred Harris.  MLK and RFK may not have been shot.   1968 was a difficult year.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #4 on: March 20, 2023, 08:15:07 AM »

As I said the Reagan Revolution is over when they stopped immigration reform after Bush W, Nixon, Eisenhower and Reagan won VA, NV and CO the difference was WV back then that is R now but D back then
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #5 on: March 20, 2023, 10:20:40 AM »

Yes, Humphrey would not have been a good candidate for the Southern Democratic vote so Nixon still wins though he does worse in the Midwest. I would say this is how the map looks like then



IL/OH are completely 50/50 here but it doesn't matter as Nixon still gets over 300 without either

Yup, I think this pretty much nails it. HHH wasn't a good candidate for the South and I could imagine Wallace even took away more votes from him than Nixon.

Only way Nixon actually loses this matchup is with his sabotage of Paris talks being revealed.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #6 on: March 20, 2023, 12:53:37 PM »

Yes, Humphrey would not have been a good candidate for the Southern Democratic vote so Nixon still wins though he does worse in the Midwest. I would say this is how the map looks like then



IL/OH are completely 50/50 here but it doesn't matter as Nixon still gets over 300 without either

I'd flip Texas back to Humphrey, but otherwise looks about right.
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Asenath Waite
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« Reply #7 on: March 20, 2023, 06:48:25 PM »

Yes, Humphrey would not have been a good candidate for the Southern Democratic vote so Nixon still wins though he does worse in the Midwest. I would say this is how the map looks like then



IL/OH are completely 50/50 here but it doesn't matter as Nixon still gets over 300 without either

A rate instance where a Republican might have been able to win the white house without Ohio.
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