Would Nixon have won in 1968 without Wallace splitting the Dem vote?

[Podgy the Bear]

Plenty of analysis after the 1968 election indicated that if Wallace had not run, the popular vote would have been a 1944 Roosevelt/Dewey type, about 53/47 in favor of Nixon.  That is, Nixon would have picked up the overwhelming majority of Wallace's Southern vote, and there would have been a likely split in the Midwest--with much of the labor vote going back to the Democrats.

On the electoral side, Nixon would have swept the South (including Texas) with a good chance at taking Pennsylvania and Maryland.  Possible that Humphrey could have made Ohio and Illinois more competitive.

But that's assuming only that Wallace didn't run and nothing else changed.  Of course, so much else would have been different.  LBJ may have decided to run after all and could have overcome the anti-Johnson sentiment.  The debacle in Chicago could have been minimized.  The Democrats may have tried to shore up their (then) advantage in the Southern states with a different running mate such as Oklahoma's Fred Harris.  MLK and RFK may not have been shot.   1968 was a difficult year.