Missouri megathread

[Pollster]

Flew under the radar but Russ Carnahan has been elected chair of the Missouri Dems.

When I first started in polling, roughly two thirds of my work was in Missouri - nowadays it barely cracks 10%. I have a soft spot for the state and hope that this development (Russ is a good and whip smart guy who I knew well when he was in DC) is a positive indicator.

https://twitter.com/jrosenbaum/status/1637149674313248768?s=20

[windjammer]

Honestly, I think the Pubs are maxed out in Missouri now. It's not going to trend democrats anytime soon but this won't get worse!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The S race along with FL and OH and MT are battlegrounds Abortion rights is on the BALLOT

[Suburbia]

Hawley can't be beaten in 2024, nor can a Democrat win any of the statewide races in 2024....unless the GOP really has a bad year next year

2026 and beyond is what MO Dems should look at, and they should look at suburban St. Louis/KC and Rolla/Jeff City areas to win....

[MT Treasurer]

I wonder when IN and MO will start diverging — as you know, they’ve had very similar (and sometimes eerily similar) election results and political campaigns since 2008. I think IN is still the more solid Republican state of the two, and I fully expect MO to trend (noticeably) D both at the presidential and non-presidential well before the former does (in fact, IN is probably the medium-sized state with the worst long-term outlook for Democrats).

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

IIRC a no name candidate came within 12 points of a non-controversial incumbent in MO-02. That could be a good pickup target in the next GOP midterm.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hawley can't be beaten in 2024, nor can a Democrat win any of the statewide races in 2024....unless the GOP really has a bad year next year

2026 and beyond is what MO Dems should look at, and they should look at suburban St. Louis/KC and Rolla/Jeff City areas to win....

LoL he is only 7 pts ahead not 15 Kander almost won and Hillary didn't win Eday in 2016 with this indictment it's a 303/125; map thats why I make nut maps I scoreboard watch for Ds it it was all about polls DeWinevwas ahead of Brown 45)39 in 2006 and Walker, Os, Master, Laxalt and Walker would if all won they had 6 pts leads

Presley is only 6 pts back it's called upset Kay Hagen and Merkley upset Liddy Dole and Gordon Smith they were Bush W moderates not MAGA


Just like Gonzaga can upset Alabama and Houston to win NCAA tournament that was my best bracket

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

IIRC a no name candidate came within 12 points of a non-controversial incumbent in MO-02. That could be a good pickup target in the next GOP midterm.

No, the Democrat was a State Representative

[FloridaMan1845]

The S race along with FL and OH and MT are battlegrounds Abortion rights is on the BALLOT

Montana and Ohio are battlegrounds due to the D incumbents, but MO and FL are NOT battlegrounds. Where do you get all these horrible electoral takes from?

[Hope For A New Era]

Honestly, I think the Pubs are maxed out in Missouri now. It's not going to trend democrats anytime soon but this won't get worse!

Current expectation is a very very slow D trend for the foreseeable future. A statewide victory might be possible again by the end of the decade under the right conditions.

[Skill and Chance]

Any updates on the 60% ballot measure threshold thing?

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.audacy.com/kmox/news/politics/quade-may-announce-statewide-campaigns

The Missouri House of Representatives minority leader and a state senator from St. Louis both confirm they'll be seeking higher office in 2024.

Saying "Missouri's never seen a governor like me before," Democrat Crystal Quade of Springfield issued a news release Sunday ahead of a planned Monday event in her hometown. In the release Quade touts she is the daughter of working class parents and a graduate of Missouri State.

Quade joins a pair of Republicans already in the race, in Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft and Lieutenant Governor Mike Kehoe, with State Senator Bill Eigel expected to make a decision about whether or not he is running by Labor Day.

[Galeel]

Safe R obviously. It's under the radar for a reason.

[Vosem]

I wonder when IN and MO will start diverging — as you know, they’ve had very similar (and sometimes eerily similar) election results and political campaigns since 2008. I think IN is still the more solid Republican state of the two, and I fully expect MO to trend (noticeably) D both at the presidential and non-presidential well before the former does (in fact, IN is probably the medium-sized state with the worst long-term outlook for Democrats).

Is there a reason for that? MO seems likely to me to keep trending Republican, just as turnout patterns by race continue evolving in their current directions (as the Civil Rights period and Obama's Presidency fade into memory, the post-2012 trend has been of black turnout coming to be a smaller percentage of white turnout, which in MO suggests reddening), whereas IN Democrats seem less dependent on minority turnout overall. Indiana also has had a substantially faster population growth rate than Missouri in the 2020s -- note the Census estimates St. Louis city has lost 5% of its population since 2020, and St. Louis county 1.4%.

It seems to me like IN is currently positioned well to very slowly get bluer, while MO will probably keep getting redder. (Absent changes in trends by demographic, which are always very possible.)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wonder when IN and MO will start diverging — as you know, they’ve had very similar (and sometimes eerily similar) election results and political campaigns since 2008. I think IN is still the more solid Republican state of the two, and I fully expect MO to trend (noticeably) D both at the presidential and non-presidential well before the former does (in fact, IN is probably the medium-sized state with the worst long-term outlook for Democrats).

Is there a reason for that? MO seems likely to me to keep trending Republican, just as turnout patterns by race continue evolving in their current directions (as the Civil Rights period and Obama's Presidency fade into memory, the post-2012 trend has been of black turnout coming to be a smaller percentage of white turnout, which in MO suggests reddening), whereas IN Democrats seem less dependent on minority turnout overall. Indiana also has had a substantially faster population growth rate than Missouri in the 2020s -- note the Census estimates St. Louis city has lost 5% of its population since 2020, and St. Louis county 1.4%.

It seems to me like IN is currently positioned well to very slowly get bluer, while MO will probably keep getting redder. (Absent changes in trends by demographic, which are always very possible.)

How is IN getting bluer and not MO we don't have a chance in IN but somewhat in MO

[Tekken_Guy]

Safe R obviously. It's under the radar for a reason.

Safe R but maybe she’ll do considerably better than Galloway did, especially if Eigel ends up being her opponent.

Quade’s main goal seems to be raising he profile for a 2026 State Senator run in SD-30.

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/RGreggKeller/status/1679460216100868097?s=20

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Crystal Quade will lose but not a white male

[BigZuck08]

Safe R for both Governor and Senator.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe R for both Governor and Senator.

.
You post things like a 303 map we know already but Trump being a convicted felon changes the EC college just because you say it doesn't mean anything

[BigZuck08]

Safe R for both Governor and Senator.

.
You post things like a 303 map we know already but Trump being a convicted felon changes the EC college just because you say it doesn't mean anything

I never said that Trump being a convicted felon meant nothing. Maybe you were referring to another user? Also, what does the presidential race have to do with Missouri's senate and governor race?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Prez Nominee brings down the ticket the reverse was true in 2016 Hillary cost us the S due to her campaign

It's called voting everything isn't gonna flow in a 303 package we won Red states beforehand

[MarkD]

I just watched This Week in Missouri Politics, in which I listened as state Senator Andrew Koenig discussed his next campaign -- a run for statewide office: state Treasurer. This means he'll be competing with (appointed) incumbent Vivek Malek in the Republican primary. And it means he's trying to follow in Eric Schmitt's path: Schmitt had been the state Senator from the same district in 2008-2016 when he then ran successfully for Treasurer in 2016.

I heard Koenig say that he's always been the underdog in every one of his races. That is laughable!! He's only had a few close races out of the 12 election contests that he's been in so far. He did have a close race in his first Republican primary for the state House in 2008: he beat Shamed Dogan by only 10 points in a three-way race that year (44.44% to 33.44%). He then was unopposed in the general election that year, as he was again unopposed in the general election two years later. He easily crushed on minor opponent in the 2010 Republican primary with 88.42%. He was unopposed in the Republican primary in both 2012 and 2014, and in those two general elections, he got 59.22% and 63.53% respectively. How could he have been an "underdog" as the incumbent state rep running for reelection in a very heavily Republican West St. Louis County district? In his first race for the state Senate - 2016 - he did have a close race against fellow state rep Rick Stream in the Republican primary, 53.15% to 46.85%. But he easily beat his Democratic opponent in the general election, in a senate district that was, at the time, still a heavily Republican district. He was unopposed in the Republican primary in 2020, and then he finally did have a close call in the general election that year, winning against state Rep Deb Lavender just 53.99% to 46.01%. But all in all, he's had no opponents in five of his primary or general election bids, and he has crushed four other opponents by wide margins.

Vivek Malek v. Andrew Koenig should be an interesting primary race next year.

[JGibson]

Missourians for Constitutional Freedom launched on Thursday in their quest to put a ballot measure ending Missouri's abortion ban.

KMOV:

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. (First Alert 4) - With just over 16 weeks left to collect signatures, a coalition of abortion rights advocacy groups officially launched a campaign Thursday to lift the state’s ban on the procedure.

The group, Missourians for Constitutional Freedom, is comprised of the ACLU of Missouri, Abortion Action Missouri, and the region’s two Planned Parenthood chapters.

https://twitter.com/Missourians4CF/status/1747974900596318417

[MarkD]

Missourians for Constitutional Freedom launched on Thursday in their quest to put a ballot measure ending Missouri's abortion ban.

KMOV:

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. (First Alert 4) - With just over 16 weeks left to collect signatures, a coalition of abortion rights advocacy groups officially launched a campaign Thursday to lift the state’s ban on the procedure.

The group, Missourians for Constitutional Freedom, is comprised of the ACLU of Missouri, Abortion Action Missouri, and the region’s two Planned Parenthood chapters.

https://twitter.com/Missourians4CF/status/1747974900596318417

But first there has to be a consensus on which ballot language they want to have -- how comprehensive do they want to make the right to abortion; do they agree to compromise -- and that will not be particularly easy.