Electoral College of the 2030s
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FloridaMan1845
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« on: March 17, 2023, 08:17:04 PM »
How will the U.S. Electoral College look like post-2028?
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Here are my ideas:

1. +3 EVs (FL, AZ), +2 EVs (TX), +1 EVs (GA, ID), -1 EVs (CA, MN, WI, MI, OH, PA), -2 EVs (NY, IL).

2. +3 EVs (FL, AZ), +2 EVs (TX), +1 EVs (NV, UT, ID, TN, NC, SC, GA), -1 EVs (MN, WI, MI, OH, PA, NJ), -2 EVs (NY, IL), -5 EVs (CA).
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Feel free to roast me if I’m horrendously wrong.
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Ragnaroni
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« Reply #1 on: March 18, 2023, 05:58:17 AM »
Quote from: FloridaMan1845 on March 17, 2023, 08:17:04 PM
How will the U.S. Electoral College look like post-2028?
—
Here are my ideas:

1. +3 EVs (FL, AZ), +2 EVs (TX), +1 EVs (GA, ID), -1 EVs (CA, MN, WI, MI, OH, PA), -2 EVs (NY, IL).

2. +3 EVs (FL, AZ), +2 EVs (TX), +1 EVs (NV, UT, ID, TN, NC, SC, GA), -1 EVs (MN, WI, MI, OH, PA, NJ), -2 EVs (NY, IL), -5 EVs (CA).
—
Feel free to roast me if I’m horrendously wrong.
- 5 EVs for CA means the state gets even worse than it already is. Not unsurprising!
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #2 on: March 18, 2023, 02:22:42 PM »
The 2020 census happened too early to capture 90% of the southward COVID migration, so the changes could be really dramatic this time.  Unless there is a realignment, the next reapportionment will basically be the best thing that ever happened to Republicans since Reagan.  Even something like this is plausible:
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FloridaMan1845
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« Reply #3 on: March 20, 2023, 04:46:09 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on March 18, 2023, 02:22:42 PM
The 2020 census happened too early to capture 90% of the southward COVID migration, so the changes could be really dramatic this time.  Unless there is a realignment, the next reapportionment will basically be the best thing that ever happened to Republicans since Reagan.  Even something like this is plausible:




AR gains an electoral vote? I’d’ve thought that AZ would get 3. Other than that, this is based.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #4 on: March 21, 2023, 10:42:09 AM »
Quote from: FloridaMan1845 on March 20, 2023, 04:46:09 PM
Quote from: Skill and Chance on March 18, 2023, 02:22:42 PM
The 2020 census happened too early to capture 90% of the southward COVID migration, so the changes could be really dramatic this time.  Unless there is a realignment, the next reapportionment will basically be the best thing that ever happened to Republicans since Reagan.  Even something like this is plausible:




AR gains an electoral vote? I’d’ve thought that AZ would get 3. Other than that, this is based.

It might not be close enough to the line, but it was the most underestimated state in the 2020 census and Walmart just closed a bunch of satellite offices and relo-ed a bunch of people to Bentonville.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #5 on: March 21, 2023, 12:53:13 PM »
+3 (TX)
+2 (FL)
+1 (AZ, GA, ID, UT)
-1 (CA, LA, MI, PA, RI, WI)
-2 (IL, NY)
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Vern
vern1988
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« Reply #6 on: March 27, 2023, 07:52:18 PM »
« Edited: March 27, 2023, 07:55:23 PM by Vern »
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #7 on: April 06, 2023, 01:22:50 AM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on March 18, 2023, 02:22:42 PM
The 2020 census happened too early to capture 90% of the southward COVID migration, so the changes could be really dramatic this time.  Unless there is a realignment, the next reapportionment will basically be the best thing that ever happened to Republicans since Reagan.  Even something like this is plausible:




Looks about right, just around the time Texas turns blue for a few cycles.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #8 on: April 06, 2023, 10:07:55 AM »
Quote from: Epaminondas on April 06, 2023, 01:22:50 AM
Quote from: Skill and Chance on March 18, 2023, 02:22:42 PM
The 2020 census happened too early to capture 90% of the southward COVID migration, so the changes could be really dramatic this time.  Unless there is a realignment, the next reapportionment will basically be the best thing that ever happened to Republicans since Reagan.  Even something like this is plausible:




Looks about right, just around the time Texas turns blue for a few cycles.

The danger is that the next reapportionment puts Democrats close to a position where they have to win Texas to win the presidency. 
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