NY: Trump on Trial!

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/package-suspicious-powder-delivered-manhattan-da-office-trump-investigation

Bragg is receiving death threats now. That is Trump’s fault.

Yeah, this situation is totally going to make the average American sympathize with Trump and validate his persecution complex.

[Progressive Pessimist]

As nice as it would be to see Trump in handcuffs, the hush money payments probably won't hold up in appeals court. Or the court of public opinion. The Fulton County case is both legally sound and good public relations wise.

The court of public opinion will probably not care outside of his base and biggest detractors.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I hope raw-dogging a porn star was worth it.

As nice as it would be to see Trump in handcuffs, the hush money payments probably won't hold up in appeals court. Or the court of public opinion. The Fulton County case is both legally sound and good public relations wise.

The court of public opinion will probably not care outside of his base and biggest detractors.

So basically, nothing stopping 45-47% of the country voting for him again in 2024 as if nothing happened. Sounds right

Pretty much, though I was also making the point that this probably won't gain him any new support either even as it inflames those who were already always going to vote for him.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Idk why people think this would ensure Trump wins the GOP nomination…if a wave of indictments from this, GA, etc, keep dropping I really do think a plurality of Republican voters will defect to Desantis, Scott, or Pence.

Then you don't know Republican primary voters well enough. They were ride-or-die for Trump before, and now they're pretty much even more like the War Boys from 'Mad Max: Fury Road.'

[Progressive Pessimist]

Since we probably won't get much new info on this story for the next couple days, anybody want to try their luck with predictions? What will some of the 34 charges be? Will Trump smile in his mugshot or go Blue Steel? What will be his first Truth Social post after surrendering?

Blue steel. That's probably the only thing I am confident in predicting.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's really kind of vexing to me that so much of this was because of wanting to get ahead of a scandal that would have broke during the 2016 election. Would it even have mattered if the Stormy Daniels development came out during the 2016 campaign? Didn't Trump already get through numerous scandals unscathed? I forget if this would have been before the Access Hollywood video, but if he was able to survive that (which is still in the top five of worst things he has ever said which really should have ruined him) I don't see how he wouldn't have come out unharmed from a simple extramarital affair which was already so believable from a notorious misogynistic hedonist like him.

So it's possible that this was for nothing and may even be worse for Trump now, even if it seemed to be in Trump's interests in the short-term.

[Progressive Pessimist]

keeps his mouth completely shut for the rest of his life (in the public forum anyway)

I'd want a full on vow of silence.

I suggest having his mouth sewn to Giuliani-Human Centipede style.

[Progressive Pessimist]

He wants to bait the judge into saying something that could cause change of venue or even a mistrial

Nah, Trump doesn't think that far ahead. He just can't resist getting his anger out in whatever way possible.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/gtconway3d/status/1778925018828726541

Next, there will be a literal smoking gun.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Two-thirds of registered voters say Trump’s hush money charges are serious
Reuters/Ipsos poll finds one-quarter of potential Trump voters say they would not vote for him if he was serving time in prison

Ahead of former President Donald Trump’s trial next week, the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll finds that nearly two-thirds of registered voters (64%) say the charges—for allegedly falsifying business records around hush money to Stormy Daniels and Karen McDougal during the 2016 presidential election—are serious, including 36% who say they are very serious. Registered voters share similar concerns around the other three criminal charges against Trump, including allegedly soliciting election fraud, pressuring Georgia state officials to overturn the presidential election, and illegally removing classified documents from the White House and keeping them at a private home after leaving office. About seven in ten say each of these additional charges is serious, and at least half say each charge is very serious.

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/two-thirds-registered-voters-say-trumps-hush-money-charges-are-serious

Encouraging, if true. Though the caveat of "if he were serving time in prison" may be important to note. Even if he is found guilty before the election, I don't think he'd be sentenced by then. But maybe a conviction would be enough to reflect the concerns of this poll.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I don't think he even genuinely cares about Barron's graduation. It's just a very convenient excuse.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I found it amusing that Trump complained that he couldn'tcampaign in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He really thinks he needs to spend time there? If so, his campaign is going to be the mess it always looked like it would be. Or he thinks he is still running in the primary.

I think some of you fail to understand a core principle of the jury system: jurors are allowed to have opinions about people involved in the case -- whether it's the defendant, the defense lawyers, the prosecutors, the judge, the arresting officer, or the person running the security checkpoint at the courthouse entrance.  Jurors are supposed to (and they swear to, at least in the jury oath in some jurisdictions) put aside any such opinions and reach a verdict solely on the evidence presented.  Their opinions get left outside on the courthouse steps.  

Most people, I think, are pretty good at this.  Some are not.  If a juror feels they cannot put aside their opinions, then they should be excused -- which is something that is routinely asked in jury questioning.  If the prosecutors or defense believe that a juror can't be fair for some reason, they can move to have the juror excused for cause; failing that, they can use one of their peremptory strikes if they just have a bad feeling about a particular juror.  But simply having an opinion about the defendant -- whether favorable or unfavorable -- or a political leaning is not sufficient cause by itself to remove them; there needs to be some other indication that they can't render a fair verdict.

If you think it's impossible to find a fair jury even for a famous defendant, then you really don't believe in the jury system (and, I suspect, you don't have much faith in people at all).  Believing that jurors shouldn't have opinions or political leanings is as misguided and unrealistic as believing that police officers, judges, or prosecutors shouldn't either.  Their opinions don't matter as long as they can do their job fairly.  Most of them do, and those that don't should be removed from their jobs.  Being a juror is just another job (a short-term, low-paying one) in the same category.

If that is so, then let's move the trial to a 50-50 jurisdiction somewhere upstate.
The opinions of jurors don't matter as long as they can do their job fairly.

Or better yet, let's move the trial to rural Texas.

The trial is being held in NY b/c the crimes trump is charged with were allegedly committed there. That's how trials work, since you clearly don't know - you're charged in the venue where the alleged crime took place. Holding the trial in rural Texas would make no more sense than holding it in the Vatican. trump is not entitled to more of his voters potentially being on a jury. No criminal defendant is.

If you're pissy about this fact, the solution is for your Cheeto cult leader to stop committing crimes in jurisdictions full of people who despise him. Go pay a porn star to sleep with him while his wife is pregnant, tell a local publisher of a rag tabloid to buy the story from said lady and not run it to cover it up b/c 1) it looks bad for him and 2) it's a campaign expense he's trying to hide, and then write a check to his lawyer so he can turn around pay off the porn star with that exact amount (falsification of records), and do it all in West Texas. Voila, you'll have his trial there.

Edit: come to think of it, the MAGA local prosecutor would not even charge the crime, if it's even a felony in Texas to begin with, out of loyalty to trump. Which is, of course, the real reason you want rural Texas to be the jury pool. You want nothing but people who place loyalty to trump above the law.

Ironically he is getting what he wants in the Florida trial. Trump's saving grace is that he committed those crimes in West Palm Beach rather than DC or New York.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Just look at this moron.

https://twitter.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1781289431527231936

Yeah, black men are thrown in prison due to a systemic problem of them misappropriating money and fraudulently paying off a porn star they had a tryst with. They also have the luxury of being out on bail and having muliple non-court appointed professional lawyers working for them. Not to mention glowering at the judge and jury, insulting them on a social media platform they own, and having press conferences after every day in court.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Michael Avenatti says he’s talking to Trump’s legal team — and would testify for the ex-prez

Disgraced Stormy Daniels’ attorney Michael Avenatti has been in contact with former President Trump’s legal defense team and is ready and willing to testify against his former client, he told The Post in an interview from jail.

“The defense has contacted me,” Avenatti told The Post in a phone call from Terminal Island, a minimum-security federal prison in Los Angeles where he is currently serving a 19-year sentence for extortion, tax evasion, fraud, embezzlement and other federal crimes.

“I’d be more than happy to testify, I don’t know that I will be called to testify, but I have been in touch with Trump’s defense for the better part of year,” Avenatti said.

While Avenatti made his name as one of Trump’s most ferocious critics — and even publicly called for Trump’s indictment in 2018 — the defense attorney sang a different tune from the clink.

https://nypost.com/2024/04/20/us-news/michael-avenatti-says-hes-in-conversations-with-trump-legal-team/

Hmmm...maybe criminals are more sympathetic to Trump.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yep, he thinks it could hang.

That might not be as bad as an acquittal, but still an awful development.

Is your dad a legal professional?

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think we should just see how the trial goes before making any assumptions as to what the jury will do.

Fair enough. We do need to see how both the defense and prosecution go about their cases.

I will say, I think Trump is doing himself a disservice by being so confrontational and judgmental of the jury. If they were unbiased about him before...somehow, he certainly isn't making himself more sympathetic.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Along those lines.

He won't be campaigning in any states that he needs to win, which helps Biden

He has Wednesdays and the weekends. As a practical matter, he rarely did his rallies outside the weekends.

Yes he did no campaign events today. The Biden campaign actually pointed this out, since he keeps complaining how it's unfair the trial is keeping him off the campaign trail.

Trump's next scheduled rally is Saturday May 11th (not this Saturday, not next Saturday, but the Saturday after). In Wildwood, NJ of all places.

For a guy complaining this trial is keeping him off the campaign trail, he's not trying to make up for lost time.

I've pointed this out elsewhere, but northeastern Pennsylvania is like RIGHT THERE from New York City and is the key region that'll probably decide the state. He could probably finish his trial on a Tuesday and fit in Tuesday evening and Wednesday events in Scranton and Wilkes-Barre and be back for Thursday trial.

He may love campaigning, but he isn't exactly smart about where he does it.

[Progressive Pessimist]

...Hopefully...