NY: Trump on Trial!

[emailking]

Well most legal experts seem to agree he won't get jail time for this as a first offender so I'm just going with that.

[mjba257]

They can't recommend a sentence 'til a guilty verdict is in. Before sentencing, he'd be interviewed by the probation department, who'd prepare a pre-sentencing report for Merchan in addition to the sentence recommendations he'll receive from the prosecution & defense (& on top of an assumed motion from the defense to set aside the conviction in favor of an acquittal, which Merchan will almost certainly deny), then he'd be sentenced, typically anywhere from a few wks. to a few months after conviction, & we'll assume he was out on bail pending sentencing for the purposes of this discussion but if sentenced to prison time without being able to win bail on appeal, he'd immediately be remanded into the custody of New York state correctional officers, as there's no post-sentencing time given to report in New York criminal proceedings; the sentencing hearing is the report date, with the defendant handcuffed & remanded from the courtroom if receiving prison time (& amend the sentencing hearing to the verdict reading when unable to secure bail pending sentencing).

I understand there'd be no actual sentencing recommendation in this specific case yet.
But there's been like no discussion of sentencing guidelines or how similar past cases have been sentenced in the past.
Like, what do defendants who have been convicted of this crime usually get as a penalty? Isn't there a recommended sentence for each class of felony in the state?

Every state is different, but low-level felony convictions for first time offenders don't usually result in incarceration, and if it does, it usually is for less than a year. Typically probation, fines, community service, etc are the go-to penalties for these offenses. Add to that the unique nature of this defendant, given that he is running for president and has secret service, makes it even more unlikely he'd get prison time

[The Mikado]

Like, what do defendants who have been convicted of this crime usually get as a penalty? Isn't there a recommended sentence for each class of felony in the state?

They're seeking this as a Class E felony, which in NY is apparently up to 4 years but a first offender wouldn't get anywhere near that. I tend to agree with people who think giving Trump jail time will be impossible but even if it wasn't we'd probably be talking like 12 months?

Anyway, that's an argument for the sentencing phase if we get a conviction.

I do think people are unprepared for how quickly this trial is moving and how late in we already are. The prosecution is indicating it plans to rest Tuesday of next week (the 21st) and the defense is saying that they think their case would take about a week, so we'll probably have a verdict the first or second week of June? That's a lot closer than I think people are mentally ready for.

[°Leprechaun]

When will this trial be over? June?
Any predictions as to whether he is convicted?
I think that a hung jury is possible, but an acquittal is unlikely.

[soundchaser]

Acquittal seems all but impossible to me based on the evidence and the makeup of the jury.

[wbrocks67]

When will this trial be over? June?
Any predictions as to whether he is convicted?
I think that a hung jury is possible, but an acquittal is unlikely.

Seems possible that everything pre-jury deliberation could/should be wrapped up by end of next week?

[Tintrlvr]

Like, what do defendants who have been convicted of this crime usually get as a penalty? Isn't there a recommended sentence for each class of felony in the state?

They're seeking this as a Class E felony, which in NY is apparently up to 4 years but a first offender wouldn't get anywhere near that. I tend to agree with people who think giving Trump jail time will be impossible but even if it wasn't we'd probably be talking like 12 months?

Anyway, that's an argument for the sentencing phase if we get a conviction.

I do think people are unprepared for how quickly this trial is moving and how late in we already are. The prosecution is indicating it plans to rest Tuesday of next week (the 21st) and the defense is saying that they think their case would take about a week, so we'll probably have a verdict the first or second week of June? That's a lot closer than I think people are mentally ready for.

I agree with the speed. People are used to courts taking forever to reach justice, which is true, but once you actually get to trial, there's not much to do to delay the result. I feel like people are still thinking of this as something that might be resolved in two to three months, which is far from the truth; the latest we'll have a verdict is the first week of June.

[GeorgiaModerate]

They can't recommend a sentence 'til a guilty verdict is in. Before sentencing, he'd be interviewed by the probation department, who'd prepare a pre-sentencing report for Merchan in addition to the sentence recommendations he'll receive from the prosecution & defense (& on top of an assumed motion from the defense to set aside the conviction in favor of an acquittal, which Merchan will almost certainly deny), then he'd be sentenced, typically anywhere from a few wks. to a few months after conviction, & we'll assume he was out on bail pending sentencing for the purposes of this discussion but if sentenced to prison time without being able to win bail on appeal, he'd immediately be remanded into the custody of New York state correctional officers, as there's no post-sentencing time given to report in New York criminal proceedings; the sentencing hearing is the report date, with the defendant handcuffed & remanded from the courtroom if receiving prison time (& amend the sentencing hearing to the verdict reading when unable to secure bail pending sentencing).

I understand there'd be no actual sentencing recommendation in this specific case yet.
But there's been like no discussion of sentencing guidelines or how similar past cases have been sentenced in the past.
Like, what do defendants who have been convicted of this crime usually get as a penalty? Isn't there a recommended sentence for each class of felony in the state?

The maximum sentence for the Class E felony is up to 4 years and prison and up to $5,000 fine for each count.  The "Just Security" site did a survey of similar New York cases and provided a table describing each one and the result; on a quick skim, it looks like the sentences varied from community service to a couple of years in prison.

Table: https://www.justsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/survey-new-york-felony-falsification-of-business-records-just-security.pdf

Article: https://www.justsecurity.org/85605/survey-of-past-new-york-felony-prosecutions-for-falsifying-business-records/

[soundchaser]

Here's where I show my ignorance: would Trump being held in contempt be factored into the sentence?

[emailking]

Like, what do defendants who have been convicted of this crime usually get as a penalty? Isn't there a recommended sentence for each class of felony in the state?

They're seeking this as a Class E felony, which in NY is apparently up to 4 years but a first offender wouldn't get anywhere near that. I tend to agree with people who think giving Trump jail time will be impossible but even if it wasn't we'd probably be talking like 12 months?

Anyway, that's an argument for the sentencing phase if we get a conviction.

I do think people are unprepared for how quickly this trial is moving and how late in we already are. The prosecution is indicating it plans to rest Tuesday of next week (the 21st) and the defense is saying that they think their case would take about a week, so we'll probably have a verdict the first or second week of June? That's a lot closer than I think people are mentally ready for.

I'm here for it!

[brucejoel99]

Here's where I show my ignorance: would Trump being held in contempt be factored into the sentence?

It can be, it'd be up to Justice Merchan.

[VALibertarian]

Out of curiosity, would would be the lightest (realistically speaking) sentence Trump could get?

[mjba257]

Out of curiosity, would would be the lightest (realistically speaking) sentence Trump could get?

Community service, plus a fine. Given his age, it probably wouldn't be anything physical, but could involve Trump having to volunteer somewhere like a children's hospital or a soup kitchen, etc. I work in healthcare and you wouldn't believe the amount of tedious stuff I have to do and how nice it would be for me to have a volunteer to do those tasks. That would be something I could see Trump doing.

[Cyrusman]

Acquittal seems all but impossible to me based on the evidence and the makeup of the jury.

Why? Doesn't there only need to be 1 juror for acquittal?

[Redban]

Acquittal seems all but impossible to me based on the evidence and the makeup of the jury.

Why? Doesn't there only need to be 1 juror for acquittal?

That would be hung jury, not acquittal

[emailking]

Cohen testified that he and Allen Weisselberg went talked to Trump directly for his sign off on the whole scheme!

[SteveRogers]

Out of curiosity, would would be the lightest (realistically speaking) sentence Trump could get?

It looks like the length of probation for a Class E felony would be 3 to 5 years. Standard conditions of probation would likely include community service, regular reporting to a probation officer, proof of employment, drug and alcohol testing, a prohibition on possessing any guns, and any other classes or counseling programs the court seems appropriate. Probation also usually comes with a curfew and restrictions on travel (with random home visits to check curfew compliance). His probation supervision could probably be transferred to Florida, but he might not be able to leave his county of residence without prior approval from his probation officer.

In short, felony probation is no cakewalk.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If Trump is convicted of a felony in New York, will that make him inelegible to vote in his home state of Florida?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

If Trump is convicted of a felony in New York, will that make him inelegible to vote in his home state of Florida?

No. Because if he is, the Florida legislature will hurriedly enact legislation making clear that, while all other felons remain ineligible to vote, felons convicted of falsifying business records in aid of another crime in the state of New York are eligible to vote after all.

[wbrocks67]

Cohen testified that he and Allen Weisselberg went talked to Trump directly for his sign off on the whole scheme!

Yeah, it seems as if Cohen delivered on what he was expected to deliver on today.

[Progressive Pessimist]

We've seen that Trump doesn't learn lessons from mild punishments. He needs to be at least threatened with prison time, I think it worked for the gag order...so far.

Anyway, Americans in polls suggested that a Trump conviction alone would be enough for them to move to Biden. I'm holding them to that, other than the 46-47% of the country that is too far-gone, of course.

[Redban]

BRB - “Cohen delivered on what he was expected to deliver on today”

Mr. Fix-It’ Michael Cohen bombs on the stand, offers no new evidence to convict Trump

Bragg needed Cohen to clearly state that Trump intentionally committed fraud to conceal some still poorly defined crime.
…
The problem is that Cohen only confirmed that Trump knew he was going to pay for the nondisclosure agreement and that it would be buried before the election. None of that is unlawful.
…
In the course of that representation, Cohen also admitted to taping his client without his knowledge, a breathtaking breach of trust and confidentiality.
…
Cohen contradicted Davidson and insisted that he only wanted to be Trump’s personal lawyer.

He also admitted that he was unaware that the publisher of National Enquirer, David Pecker, had long killed negative stories about Trump and other celebrities for decades.

https://nypost.com/2024/05/13/opinion/mr-fix-it-michael-cohen-bombs-on-the-stand-offers-no-new-evidence-to-convict-trump/

[GeorgiaModerate]

BRB - “Cohen delivered on what he was expected to deliver on today”

Mr. Fix-It’ Michael Cohen bombs on the stand, offers no new evidence to convict Trump

Bragg needed Cohen to clearly state that Trump intentionally committed fraud to conceal some still poorly defined crime.
…
The problem is that Cohen only confirmed that Trump knew he was going to pay for the nondisclosure agreement and that it would be buried before the election. None of that is unlawful.
…
In the course of that representation, Cohen also admitted to taping his client without his knowledge, a breathtaking breach of trust and confidentiality.
…
Cohen contradicted Davidson and insisted that he only wanted to be Trump’s personal lawyer.

He also admitted that he was unaware that the publisher of National Enquirer, David Pecker, had long killed negative stories about Trump and other celebrities for decades.

https://nypost.com/2024/05/13/opinion/mr-fix-it-michael-cohen-bombs-on-the-stand-offers-no-new-evidence-to-convict-trump/

That's an opinion piece by Jonathan Turley, who's been consistently tweeting negative things about this case from the very beginning.  He doesn't seem to be a very unbiased commentator.

[emailking]

yeah I've heard commentators who said he did great on the stand, owned up to his wrongs, stayed calm and on message. Of course things could be potentially different on cross.

[wbrocks67]

BRB - “Cohen delivered on what he was expected to deliver on today”

Mr. Fix-It’ Michael Cohen bombs on the stand, offers no new evidence to convict Trump

Bragg needed Cohen to clearly state that Trump intentionally committed fraud to conceal some still poorly defined crime.
…
The problem is that Cohen only confirmed that Trump knew he was going to pay for the nondisclosure agreement and that it would be buried before the election. None of that is unlawful.
…
In the course of that representation, Cohen also admitted to taping his client without his knowledge, a breathtaking breach of trust and confidentiality.
…
Cohen contradicted Davidson and insisted that he only wanted to be Trump’s personal lawyer.

He also admitted that he was unaware that the publisher of National Enquirer, David Pecker, had long killed negative stories about Trump and other celebrities for decades.

https://nypost.com/2024/05/13/opinion/mr-fix-it-michael-cohen-bombs-on-the-stand-offers-no-new-evidence-to-convict-trump/

That's an opinion piece by Jonathan Turley, who's been consistently tweeting negative things about this case from the very beginning.  He doesn't seem to be a very unbiased commentator.

Exactly why I don't take redban seriously