NY: Trump on Trial!

[BG-NY]

Top minds of Atlas

This story died off quick as can be. 

Might’ve been a fundraising ploy. Doesn’t seem this is happening.

Just as I suspect. Trump will never be arrested. He’ll never be charged. It’s been fantasy talk since 2016

The grand jury keeps getting more an more incompetent, yet an indictment is supposed to "hurt" him.

Don't get your hopes up for next week either.

If I had to bet money, I don't think Trump will be indicted. I'll believe it when I see it. Its been 8 years of investigations.

I was wrong, I'm surprised Bragg decided to end Dems' 2024 hopes by indicting Trump for paying off a porn star.

The problem with that logic is that it's unethical to not indict someone whether or not the political ramifications are good or bad. That said no indictment has ever been good for a campaign and Trump was already facing a repeat of 2020 as it was.

Ethics aren't the issue here, it's that the case is weak. Bringing a case that doesn't have a high likelihood of success just helps to drive division in this country. If Trump is found guilty, that's something else entirely, but nobody has that expectation

2020 was settled by <45k votes. That's nearly a coinflip. You run that election 100x, Trump wins at least 40.

No one except his base is upset that he was indicted and he needs more his base to be elected. Just because you think that case is weak doesn't mean that it is. If it was weak it never would have been brought to a grand jury. No DA would push a case against a former President without it being solid.

If zero people change their minds from 2020, and you just see an continuation of demographic trends, you have another tossup. If Trump and the GOP weren't morons who eschewed VBM 2020 might've gone the other way.

A "tossup" doesn't win the election for Trump. No one wanted to admit he was at a disadvantage in 2020 until he lost. It's hard to think of a single voter who voted for Biden switching to Trump based on Trump being indicted. The conspiracy theorists who see this as a phony indictment are already supporting Trump.

A tossup wins half the time…that’s what a tossup is. He could win the “popular” vote by 11 million and take the EC by 5 total votes across 5 states.

[7,052,770]

2020 was settled by <45k votes. That's nearly a coinflip. You run that election 100x, Trump wins at least 40.

You can't say that for sure. What's to say that 2020 was a median outcome anyway? It could have been a 90th percentile scenario for Trump, and still wasn't enough to win.

[DrScholl]

Top minds of Atlas

This story died off quick as can be. 

Might’ve been a fundraising ploy. Doesn’t seem this is happening.

Just as I suspect. Trump will never be arrested. He’ll never be charged. It’s been fantasy talk since 2016

The grand jury keeps getting more an more incompetent, yet an indictment is supposed to "hurt" him.

Don't get your hopes up for next week either.

If I had to bet money, I don't think Trump will be indicted. I'll believe it when I see it. Its been 8 years of investigations.

I was wrong, I'm surprised Bragg decided to end Dems' 2024 hopes by indicting Trump for paying off a porn star.

The problem with that logic is that it's unethical to not indict someone whether or not the political ramifications are good or bad. That said no indictment has ever been good for a campaign and Trump was already facing a repeat of 2020 as it was.

Ethics aren't the issue here, it's that the case is weak. Bringing a case that doesn't have a high likelihood of success just helps to drive division in this country. If Trump is found guilty, that's something else entirely, but nobody has that expectation

2020 was settled by <45k votes. That's nearly a coinflip. You run that election 100x, Trump wins at least 40.

No one except his base is upset that he was indicted and he needs more his base to be elected. Just because you think that case is weak doesn't mean that it is. If it was weak it never would have been brought to a grand jury. No DA would push a case against a former President without it being solid.

If zero people change their minds from 2020, and you just see an continuation of demographic trends, you have another tossup. If Trump and the GOP weren't morons who eschewed VBM 2020 might've gone the other way.

A "tossup" doesn't win the election for Trump. No one wanted to admit he was at a disadvantage in 2020 until he lost. It's hard to think of a single voter who voted for Biden switching to Trump based on Trump being indicted. The conspiracy theorists who see this as a phony indictment are already supporting Trump.

A tossup wins half the time…that’s what a tossup is. He could win the “popular” vote by 11 million and take the EC by 5 total votes across 5 states.

That's unlikely for someone who has lost the popular vote by nearly 3 million and 7 million two different times. And don't forget that the one time he one was because of third party voters. Take away Stein and Johnson and you probably have no President Trump at all.

[Tekken_Guy]

Top minds of Atlas

This story died off quick as can be. 

Might’ve been a fundraising ploy. Doesn’t seem this is happening.

Just as I suspect. Trump will never be arrested. He’ll never be charged. It’s been fantasy talk since 2016

The grand jury keeps getting more an more incompetent, yet an indictment is supposed to "hurt" him.

Don't get your hopes up for next week either.

If I had to bet money, I don't think Trump will be indicted. I'll believe it when I see it. Its been 8 years of investigations.

I was wrong, I'm surprised Bragg decided to end Dems' 2024 hopes by indicting Trump for paying off a porn star.

What states that you had Biden winning do you now think Trump wins?

Not just Trump. Any republicans will now win WI/AZ/PA.

How about Michigan, Nevada, and Georgia?

Michigan - Harder. 2016 was lighting striking. It can strike twice but VBM laws make it tough. A populist can win but it’s hard.
Nevada - I’ve been fooled by this one too many times, and I think non-Cuban hispanics trend left with a Dem incumbent.
Georgia - If republicans win this they have over 300 EVs already. It’s a nonfactor.

Why do you think Arizona flips now? Kari Lake couldn’t win it, so why can Trump? Where will he make those gains?

[BG-NY]

2020 was settled by <45k votes. That's nearly a coinflip. You run that election 100x, Trump wins at least 40.

You can't say that for sure. What's to say that 2020 was a median outcome anyway? It could have been a 90th percentile scenario for Trump, and still wasn't enough to win.

Or it could be a 90th percentile scenario for Biden. An unbiased prior suggests both directions are equally likely.

[ProudModerate2]

https://twitter.com/StormyDaniels/status/1641586707853082624


LMAO.
This is hilarious.
Stormy Daniels saying she is drinking champagne after all this news. (And Melania Trump probably trying to hide from the world since early this afternoon, because of donald's romp with a porn star.)
Good Lord.

[7,052,770]

2020 was settled by <45k votes. That's nearly a coinflip. You run that election 100x, Trump wins at least 40.

You can't say that for sure. What's to say that 2020 was a median outcome anyway? It could have been a 90th percentile scenario for Trump, and still wasn't enough to win.

Or it could be a 90th percentile scenario for Biden. An unbiased prior suggests both directions are equally likely.

It "could" be either but the it was likely high percentile result for Trump, given the huge popular vote win Biden got. It was kinda fluky that the # of votes needed to flip the results was so small.

[Hindsight was 2020]

The forgotten little man will not forgive a rich person being indicted for financial fraud!

[ProudModerate2]

https://twitter.com/MSNBC/status/1641629473471623168

[Crumpets]

It's days like this I really miss the c. 2008 combo of Jon Stewart Daily Show and Boston Legal.

[BG-NY]

Top minds of Atlas

This story died off quick as can be. 

Might’ve been a fundraising ploy. Doesn’t seem this is happening.

Just as I suspect. Trump will never be arrested. He’ll never be charged. It’s been fantasy talk since 2016

The grand jury keeps getting more an more incompetent, yet an indictment is supposed to "hurt" him.

Don't get your hopes up for next week either.

If I had to bet money, I don't think Trump will be indicted. I'll believe it when I see it. Its been 8 years of investigations.

I was wrong, I'm surprised Bragg decided to end Dems' 2024 hopes by indicting Trump for paying off a porn star.

What states that you had Biden winning do you now think Trump wins?

Not just Trump. Any republicans will now win WI/AZ/PA.

How about Michigan, Nevada, and Georgia?

Michigan - Harder. 2016 was lighting striking. It can strike twice but VBM laws make it tough. A populist can win but it’s hard.
Nevada - I’ve been fooled by this one too many times, and I think non-Cuban hispanics trend left with a Dem incumbent.
Georgia - If republicans win this they have over 300 EVs already. It’s a nonfactor.

Why do you think Arizona flips now? Kari Lake couldn’t win it, so why can Trump? Where will he make those gains?

She wins with presidential turnout. Would’ve won in 2022 if not for Blake Masters dragging down the ballot.

[Ferguson97]

She wins with presidential turnout. Would’ve won in 2022 if not for Blake Masters dragging down the ballot.

Republicans had a turnout advantage in 2022, what are you even talking about?

[Pericles]

Kari Lake was a weak candidate on her own, she literally insulted McCain supporters. She would have lost even if Masters had been a superstar. This whole idea of gubernatorial candidates dragging down Senate candidates is ridiculous anyway, there often are wide gaps between those races.

[BG-NY]

She wins with presidential turnout. Would’ve won in 2022 if not for Blake Masters dragging down the ballot.

Republicans had a turnout advantage in 2022, what are you even talking about?

Midterms are historically higher income, higher educational attainment, and more suburban. None of these benefit MAGA republicans.

[Ferguson97]

She wins with presidential turnout. Would’ve won in 2022 if not for Blake Masters dragging down the ballot.

Republicans had a turnout advantage in 2022, what are you even talking about?

Midterms are historically higher income, higher educational attainment, and more suburban. None of these benefit MAGA republicans.

Republicans had a turnout advantage. This is not up for debate.

[BG-NY]

Kari Lake was a weak candidate on her own, she literally insulted McCain supporters. She would have lost even if Masters had been a superstar. This whole idea of gubernatorial candidates dragging down Senate candidates is ridiculous anyway, there often are wide gaps between those races.

She decided to campaign with Masters, they toured together as a virtual “ticket”. In PA, GA, OH, where you saw larger gaps, the candidates rarely crossed paths.

[Hindsight was 2020]

This is hilarious to watch BG keep going 😂 🍿

[BG-NY]

She wins with presidential turnout. Would’ve won in 2022 if not for Blake Masters dragging down the ballot.

Republicans had a turnout advantage in 2022, what are you even talking about?

Midterms are historically higher income, higher educational attainment, and more suburban. None of these benefit MAGA republicans.

Republicans had a turnout advantage. This is not up for debate.

You’re the only person mentioning “republican turnout” here. Candidates with different coalitions benefit from different electorates.

[Crumpets]

The number of people who still have a shiftable opinion of Trump or whose minds are set but might not turn out to vote is so small, I have a hard time seeing this have a huge political impact in the general. BUT, one group I really think this screws over is generic down-ballot R incumbents who will now have to answer to the Trump crazies about why they didn't "do something" to stop this and who probably won't get to see any sort of coattails even in a hypothetical 2024 Trump mega-landslide.

[emailking]

CNN is still the only outlet reporting 30+ charges. I think we should treat this cautiously.

[Joe Republic]

Finally Trump won the popular vote somewhere.  Unfortunately for him it was a Grand Jury.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

The number of people who still have a shiftable opinion of Trump or whose minds are set but might not turn out to vote is so small, I have a hard time seeing this have a huge political impact in the general. BUT, one group I really think this screws over is generic down-ballot R incumbents who will now have to answer to the Trump crazies about why they didn't "do something" to stop this and who probably won't get to see any sort of coattails even in a hypothetical 2024 Trump mega-landslide.

Not just that. Those same Republicans will also have to defend belonging to a party that is now publicly on the record as utterly opposed to rule of law.

There have yet been no charges released. None of those commenting know what Donald Trump is being indicted for. And yet, the GOP is clear that whatever the charges might be, they are opposed to them. Not because Mr. Trump is innocent - no, none of them are claiming that - but that the very idea of holding a powerful man to account is something they find unconscionable.

From Trump's supposed opponents like Pence and DeSantis, to party leadership like Speaker McCarthy and RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel, to the nuttiest of cultists they all agree on one thing: it is unacceptable to hold a Republican accountable under the law.

Republicans are the party of tyranny. No one should ever pretend otherwise again.

[Vosem]

She wins with presidential turnout. Would’ve won in 2022 if not for Blake Masters dragging down the ballot.

Republicans had a turnout advantage in 2022, what are you even talking about?

Particularly dumb because Arizona of all states is notorious for having a (relatively) Republican-favorable electorate in midterms and a (relatively) Democratic-favorable electorate in presidential years.

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/1641580112062693377

[Blue3]

Incredible. Hilarious after everything it’s stormy daniels that does trump in and forces him to potentially face accountability. POS

Q-Anon read the prophetic tea-leaves ("tea party" leaves? hmm) wrong.

The coming storm was never Trump.

It was Stormy Daniels.