Like with the "biolab" crap IOTL, there would be a lot of speculation that COVID-02 was a terrorist plot. The lockdown is way less doable with less widespread Internet, but society manages (schools send packets home and lectures are televised or via public radio, for example). Bush decides to deal with Saddam by other means, and wins soundly with a rally 'round the flag as the pandemic is folded into the post-9/11 hysteria. One interesting outcome would be no recession in 2008 with markets cooled for a while starting in 2003. Republicans probably get a strong anti-establishment movement going on-time over anti-masking though.
2004President George Bush (R-TX) / Vice President Dick Cheney (R-WY) ✓
Senator John Kerry (D-MA) / Senator John Edwards (D-NC)
2008Senator John McCain (R-AZ) / Governor Sarah Palin (R-AK)
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN) ✓