More Biden poor approvals with young voters along with huge lead. I am guessing his approvals will rise in a Trump rematch largely just from his own voters moving from soft disapprove to soft approve.
Seems like we should not be shocked if we have an exact 2020 map in 2024. Sure, North Carolina or Wisconsin could flip either way but it seems like very narrow opportunities for flips on either end. Texas could have a Democratic swing but still go red by 1-2%. Considering how Ds did in '22 with GOP turnout edges in NV, AZ, GA, PA- it is hard to be optimistic about a Trump victory. Trump being close seems very likely but winning much less so. Similar dynamic to before the '22 runoff in GA where Walker was guaranteed to be close and at same time, hard to see getting over 48.5-49%.
It's literally the same thing as 2022. Just because young voters disagree or disapprove with something Ds are doing does not mean they are voting GOP.
